AEW Revolution 2026 Betting Preview: Odds, Best Bets, & Predictions

Jon Moxley vs. Konosuke Takeshita Odds, Prediction, and Pick

• • Jon Moxley (-120)
  • Konosuke Takeshita (-120)

In what promises to be a fantastic match at AEW Revolution, Jon Moxley will defend his Continental Championship against Konosuke Takeshita. Moxley has held the title since defeating Kazuchika Okada at AEW Worlds End in December, and this defense might be his toughest test yet.

Oddsmakers and the public are split on who leaves with the gold. There isn’t a clear favorite, with both Moxley and Takeshita listed at -120. What does feel certain, though, is that these two are set to deliver one of the most entertaining matches on the card.

Takeshita looked like he has something to say, but instead has just started to brawl with his #AEWRevolution opponent, AEW Continental Champion Jon Moxley!

Watch #AEWCollision on TNT & HBO Max pic.twitter.com/7k5JJgZw64

— All Elite Wrestling (@AEW) March 1, 2026

If there’s one bout to keep an eye on, it’s Moxley vs. Takeshita. This no–time-limit clash pits two champions against each other, with Takeshita currently holding the Japan World Television Championship.

Given the players involved, outside interference feels almost inevitable. Okada could make his presence felt, and Kyle Fletcher is another name to watch.

Okada and Takeshita previously met in the Continental Classic semifinals at AEW Worlds End, where they put on a thrilling battle. With that recent history, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Okada either influence the finish or confront Takeshita after the match. At the same time, rumors have been swirling for months about the Death Riders finally turning on Moxley, adding another layer of intrigue to this matchup.

From a storytelling perspective, a Takeshita win opens up a lot of possibilities. The Death Riders turning on Moxley, Okada stepping up to challenge Takeshita, and Fletcher inserting himself into the mix are all compelling directions.

It feels like only a matter of time before Moxley breaks away from the Death Riders, and AEW Revolution looks like the perfect stage for that split to finally happen.

So, I am backing Takeshita for my 2026 AEW Revolution predictions!

Thekla vs. Kris Statlander Odds, Prediction, and Pick

• • Thekla (-300)
  • Kris Statlander (+200)

Thekla defends her Women’s World Championship against Kris Statlander. After joining AEW in May 2025, it took Thekla some time to find her footing, but she’s now on a roll and carving out a clear role in the promotion.

She turned those early struggles into a breakthrough at the top of the women’s division on February 11, when she defeated Statlander in a brutal, bloody strap match on AEW Dynamite. The win shocked many fans, who expected Statlander to enjoy a much longer title reign.

Security tried to keep @CallMeKrisStat separated from The Triangle of Madness, but @Toxic_Thekla took advantage with a a post match attack against @ThunderRosa22!

Watch #AEWDynamite LIVE on TBS & HBO Max pic.twitter.com/J3bOMfLJO7

— All Elite Wrestling (@AEW) March 5, 2026

Nevertheless, “The Toxic Spider” emerged on top and has been a strong champion over the last month. Now that she’s found her rhythm, I don’t expect AEW to take the title off her in a rematch with Statlander just yet. It would be great to see Thekla go on an extended run with the Women’s World Championship around her waist.

Tony Khan likely feels the same way, or at the very least, it makes sense for her to hold the belt for more than a month. Before she won the title, there was already speculation that AEW Revolution would be her coronation. That timeline has simply been moved up, and I expect Thekla to remain in the spotlight for a while longer.

Expect Thekla to prevail and retain the AEW Women’s Championship, so she is worth considering for your AEW Revolution betting picks.

MJF vs. “Hangman” Adam Page Odds, Prediction, and Pick

• • MJF (-280)
  • Adam Page (+180)

The main event at AEW Revolution pits MJF against “Hangman” Adam Page in a Texas Death Match. If Page loses, he has vowed never to challenge for the AEW World Championship again.

MJF has held the title since dethroning Samoa Joe, Swerve Strickland, and Page at AEW Worlds End this past December. The two also clashed at AEW Forbidden Door in August 2025, when Page successfully defended his title against MJF, adding another intense chapter to their rivalry.

Sunday March 15th: It's MJF vs Hangman Adam Page in an AEW World Championship Texas Death Match. Experience the carnage LIVE!
🎟️ https://t.co/k0iNkScWb2 pic.twitter.com/UnoF8cGPcS

— Crypto.com Arena (@cryptocomarena) March 6, 2026

Their first meeting came in 2019, and since then this feud has evolved into one of AEW’s strongest long-term stories. MJF won that initial encounter, but Page has generally had the upper hand in singles matches since. As one of the company’s most beloved stars, he has a real chance to send the Los Angeles crowd home happy.

MJF is the favorite, with a 73.7% implied probability of winning, but I expect Page to survive a bloody, demanding fight and come out on top. Should he receive a lengthy title reign? Probably not. Still, it’s hard to imagine AEW having its top babyface lose with such a high-stakes stipulation in place.

We’ve seen similar situations before. Earlier this year in WWE, Cody Rhodes lost to Drew McIntyre and wasn’t granted an automatic rematch. The stakes are even higher for Page here. AEW would undermine the stipulation’s meaning if he lost and they later walked it back, similar to what happened with Rhodes and McIntyre.

Ultimately, this feels closer to a coin flip than the betting odds suggest. At +180, “Hangman” stands out as one of the best value picks on the AEW Revolution card, and a strong candidate to capture the AEW World Championship for a third time.

Andrade El Idolo vs. Bandido Odds, Prediction, and Pick

• • Andrade El Idolo (-220)
  • Bandido (+165)

In singles action, Andrade El Idolo faces Bandido at Crypto.com Arena. Oddsmakers are firmly behind El Idolo, giving him a 68.8% implied probability to win. Since returning to AEW in January and joining the Don Callis Family, he has carved out an increasingly prominent role in the promotion.

After a brief departure from AEW in December 2023 for a short stint in WWE, El Idolo is back and looking stronger than ever. It feels unlikely that AEW would halt his momentum with a loss to Bandido here. With his current trajectory, now is the ideal time to continue his push.

History gets made at #AEWRevolution! #ROH World Champion @bandidowrestler vs. @AndradeElIdolo for the FIRST TIME EVER!

Bandido shows respect, but Andrade El Idolo isn’t here for handshakes!

Watch #AEWDynamite LIVE on TBS & HBO Max pic.twitter.com/hZJFP0AERs

— All Elite Wrestling (@AEW) March 5, 2026

This match has the potential to be a true sleeper on the AEW Revolution card. Bandido and El Idolo should pair up well stylistically, setting the stage for one of the most entertaining matches of the night. Both men have tremendous respect for one another, which should translate into high motivation and high-level in-ring work.

When the dust settles, the most likely outcome is a win for Andrade El Idolo as he continues his resurgence in AEW.