Nobel Prize in Literature 2025 Betting Odds and Predictions

Can Xue (+800)

Despite many pundits calling for Xue’s win last year, she fell short of Kang in the final voting. Xue’s odds to win the Nobel Prize in Literature were squarely pointed in her direction. At +300, she had a considerable lead on the next closest author, who had +800 odds.

Also, Xue was among the favorites to win in 2023, so she has been waiting patiently for her name to be called. After losing last year, many experts believed that this was going to be her year. So, is this talented Chinese author going to finally receive the call from the committee?

Nevertheless, Xue hasn’t been shut out from winning major awards during her illustrious writing career. The Chinese author was a two-time International Booker Prize long-listed writer in 2019 and 2021. Additionally, she captured the 2015 Best Translated Book Award for her fiction book, The Last Lover.

Several of Xue’s novels have been translated from Chinese to English, many of which were critically acclaimed. According to her younger sister, she lived a tough life growing up, which included working as a mill worker for eight years.

Series III author Can Xue is a preeminent voice of the global avant-garde, the writer of fiction and literary criticism steeped in a transgeographical poetics.

Her Hanuman edition reflects on Kafka and his female characters, as mediators between imaginal and creative realms. pic.twitter.com/sWVGjoBHWr

— Hanuman Editions (@hanumaneds) May 9, 2025

Nevertheless, she spent hours reading foreign literature and learning languages. As a result, Xue’s writing includes a flair of Western modern literature, while delving into her life experiences in Chinese culture.

To this day, Xue continues to write compelling pieces to captivate readers from around the world. If you are a fan of Xue’s work, the 2025 release of Mother River might be worth checking out!

Her fiction novels can be described as distinct and unlike any other writer’s publications. Despite her shortcomings in the race for the Nobel Prize in Literature recently, it’s prudent to consider her one of the top favorites again this year.

That said, after failing to get through to win this prestigious award in recent years, I don’t see anything changing. The committee doesn’t appear to be thrilled by her work. Xue probably would have already won if they wanted to honor her. I suggest passing on Xue and looking elsewhere for your Nobel Prize in Literature picks.

Mircea Cărtărescu (+800)

In 2024, Romanian novelist Mircea Cărtărescu had among the best odds to win. He closed with the second-shortest price at +800. Nothing has changed for the 68-year-old this year, as he enters with the same odds.

Cărtărescu is a highly accomplished writer with years of awards. The number of accolades and awards that Cărtărescu has received are too numerous to list! Dating back to 1980, with the Romanian Writers’ Union Prize, Cărtărescu has been collecting awards.

Most recently, Cărtărescu won the 2022 FIL Award of Romanic Languages Literature, 2023 Los Angeles Times Book Prize for Solenoid, and 2024 International Dublin Literary Award for Solenoid.

Finally read Mircea Cărtărescu’s Solenoid. The Borges and Kafka comparisons are fair enough, but this is gloriously, obscenely original, wonderfully Romanian. Belongs with Books of Jacob, Rings of Saturn, 2666, Septology and We Do Not Part as one of the new century’s best novels. pic.twitter.com/clZN3fk5YD

— Dr David Vernon (@DrDavidVernon) May 1, 2025

Published in 2015, Solenoid is still receiving rave reviews from critics and readers alike. Although Cărtărescu hasn’t published any new novels in 2025, Solenoid is still keeping readers busy and awestruck with how well written the book is by the critically acclaimed author.

Again in 2025, the former Romanian language teacher and University of Bucharest professor is a definite-shortlisted candidate to win the Nobel Prize in Literature.

He has floated around as a top contender for the last few years, though, and like Xue, was denied the top prize.

Anne Carson (+800)

Anne Carson, along with four other authors, finished with +1200 odds to win the 2024 Nobel Prize in Literature. They were all tied for the third-best probability, but none of them managed to bring the award home.

Born and raised in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Carson is a graduate of the University of Toronto. Since the late 1970s, Carson has taught classes across North American universities, including Princeton and the University of Michigan.

She is well-known as an expert in classical literature and languages. Carson is also a world-renowned poet with several popular pieces. Some of her work includes “As The Coffee”, “Humans in Love are Terrible”, and “Nighthawks”.

—Anne Carson, “O Small Sad Ecstasy of Love” pic.twitter.com/TMi2ztkcK7

— preorder FENESTRATION (@Othuke__Umukoro) May 3, 2025

Carson has been rewarded by her peers and numerous panels for her outstanding work and contributions to literature. For instance, Carson is the recipient of the MacArthur Prize, Lannan Literary Prize, and two-time winner of the Griffin Prize for Poetry in 2001 and 2014.

Her most recent published work includes the prose poem book “Wrong Norma”, which was on the longlist for the National Book Award for Poetry in 2024. It features a wide array of topics, including her personal experiences of living in poverty, her father, as well as history.

There isn’t any question that Carson belongs among the favorites, but is she worth backing after her odds shortened from +1200 to +800 for 2025? In my opinion, yes, Carson is well worth considering for your 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature predictions!

Haruki Murakami (+800)

Best-selling Japanese novelist Haruki Murakami jumped to +800 odds for the 2025 honor after closing at +1200 to win the Nobel Prize in Literature last year. Like Carson, Murakami’s implied probability has improved from 7.7% to 11.1% since the 2024 ceremony. With this in mind, oddsmakers feel more confident in Murakami winning than they did a year ago.

Murakami’s reach has been global, with over 50 translations available for foreign markets outside of Japan. The 75-year-old native of Kyoto garnered worldwide recognition from his 1987 novel, Norwegian Wood.

At the time, the contemporary writer was relatively unknown, but catapulted him to being a household name. Norwegian Wood would proceed to sell millions of copies, and Murakami’s life changed forever.

"I'm a very ordinary human being; I just happen to like reading books."
— Haruki Murakami pic.twitter.com/WIKoiaGupk

— Booktasters (@BookTasters) April 27, 2025

He would go on to win numerous awards, as recently as 2023 with the Princess of Asturias Award for Literature. Additionally, Murakami is the recipient of the Gunzou Literature Prize and was named to TIME’s 100 most influential people in the world in 2015.

Murakami’s time for the Nobel Prize in Literature could be approaching soon. However, is now the best time to lock in Murakami for your best bets in 2025? His writing style isn’t loved by all readers, as it could be described as “different” and “weird”, so it’s a tough ask.