AEW Double or Nothing 2026 Betting Preview: Odds, Best Bets, & Predictions

Kazuchika Okada vs. Konosuke Takeshita Odds, Prediction, and Pick

• • Kazuchika Okada (+120)
  • Konosuke Takeshita (-165)

In a rivalry that has been building for quite some time, Japan’s Kazuchika Okada and Konosuke Takeshita will finally square off at AEW Double or Nothing. Their ongoing feud reaches its apex at Louis Armstrong Stadium, where they’ll battle for the AEW International Championship.

Okada has held the title since defeating Kenny Omega at All In in July 2025. Heading into New York, he has successfully defended the belt five times, most recently turning back Bryan Keith on the May 6 edition of AEW Dynamite to set up this showdown with Takeshita.

Don Callis tries to cancel the big Kazuchika Okada vs Konosuke Takeshita singles match… but OKADA WANTS IT TO HAPPEN BECAUSE HE'S A FIGHTING CHAMPION.

TAKESHITA GOT BIG KAZU RATTLED. 😭
pic.twitter.com/FIFEy9Wcj2

— Drainmaker (@TheDrainmaker) April 17, 2026

This matchup has all the ingredients to be one of the most entertaining fights on the card. While the build-up to this contest has been a bit on the slower side, crowds clearly respond when these two share the ring. They’re more than capable of delivering a standout performance that could steal the show.

From my perspective, this feels like the right moment for Okada to move on from the International title and pursue other goals in AEW. His run with the belt hasn’t felt particularly impactful, and a change seems due. On the other hand, Takeshita’s standing in AEW would take a real hit if he came up short here.

Outside of his win over Kenny Omega at AEW All Out 2023, it’s hard to point to many true marquee victories on Takeshita’s resume. Another high-profile loss, especially to Okada, would only push him further down the card and delay any potential run up the ladder in the promotion.

With all that in mind, Takeshita is one of my favorite AEW Double or Nothing betting picks. At -165, he’s the play.

Darby Allin vs. MJF Odds, Prediction, and Pick

• • MJF (+250)
  • Darby Allin (-400)

MJF comes into this rematch as a heavy underdog to regain the AEW World Championship, and it doesn’t feel like the right time for his third reign.

Darby Allin beat MJF for the title at AEW Dynamite: Spring BreakThru on April 15, and this is still Allin’s first run with the belt. With barely a month as champion, it’s hard to imagine AEW cutting his reign short already.

WITH FOUR COFFIN DROPS AND A HEADLOCK TAKEOVER, DARBY'S DONE IT! #AndNEW!

Watch #AEWDynamite LIVE on TBS + HBO Max pic.twitter.com/EcGjPkYEZv

— All Elite Wrestling (@AEW) April 16, 2026

Allin’s run doesn’t have to be a year-long epic, but there’s clearly more story left to tell as champion. The winner of The Owen will be chasing the World Championship at All In in London, and Allin holding the belt into that storyline makes a lot of sense.

He could easily drop the title before then, possibly even back to MJF, but creatively, AEW has more options with Allin as champ right now. If MJF loses here, he has to shave his head.

Some fans think that stipulation makes a loss unlikely, but I see it differently: it lines up with the idea that he’s going bald for a movie role, which actually supports the outcome of him losing. It might be a bit of a hot take, but this wouldn’t surprise me in the least after appearing in Happy Gilmore 2.

At -400, Allin doesn’t offer huge standalone value, but he’s still my pick. As part of a parlay, he fits nicely as a solid anchor among your AEW Double or Nothing picks.

Samoa Joe vs. Will Ospreay Odds, Prediction, and Pick

• • Samoa Joe (+400)
  • Will Ospreay (-700)

Out of all the matches at AEW Double or Nothing, the winner I’m most confident about is Will Ospreay in The Owen Hart Cup quarterfinals. Not only do I expect Ospreay to win this match, I’m picking him to win the entire tournament.

After a six-month absence due to a neck injury, AEW seems ready to give him a major run. Ospreay just made his return on AEW Dynamite, and everything points to the company having big plans for him going forward.

It’s been a long, grueling road back from double neck fusion surgery. He may need a couple of matches to fully shake off the ring rust, but by the time he wins The Owen, Ospreay should be back in peak form.

A six month absence has changed @WillOspreay, but he believes that winning the Owen Hart Tournament is his destiny.

Watch #AEWCollision LIVE on TNT + HBO Max pic.twitter.com/lDL1tP9zia

— All Elite Wrestling (@AEW) May 17, 2026

He’s never held the AEW World Championship, but he is a two-time International Champion. At this stage, he should be in line for a bigger push, and Samoa Joe feels more like a steppingstone than a serious roadblock.

I don’t see this match having an unpredictable or overbooked finish. Ospreay should win clean and relatively quickly. The current odds of -700 are already heavy, but you could argue they belong closer to -2000.

He’s a strong candidate to include as a leg in your AEW Double or Nothing parlay.

Bandido vs. Swerve Strickland Odds, Prediction, and Pick

• • Bandido (+300)
  • Swerve Strickland (-500)

In another one of the pivotal tournament matchups, Bandido takes on Swerve Strickland for a spot in the semifinals. I don’t have overwhelming confidence in Strickland as I do in Ospreay, but Bandido is likely to go down.

Strickland vs. Ospreay for The Owen Hart Tournament title looks like a realistic match. Bandido is a fantastic in-ring worker. He is amongst the top wrestlers in AEW as a pure wrestler, and you could argue, one of the best in the world right now from a technical standpoint.

However, from a storyline perspective, Strickland against Ospreay makes for a more compelling option. They met at Forbidden Door in February and put on an entertaining match. It is one of the most underrated matches this year, and I wouldn’t mind seeing a rematch.

Message sent in brutal fashion by @swerveconfident!

Watch #ROHSupercard of Honor LIVE on Honor Club pic.twitter.com/XTNFl6OmD2

— ROH – Ring of Honor Wrestling (@ringofhonor) May 16, 2026

This should be a thrilling match against Bandido as well. At times, it might look like Bandido is going to steal a win. Despite earning lots of respect from the fans, he should come up just short, though.

His opponent makes a better option for the final, so consider backing Strickland for your 2026 AEW Double or Nothing best bets.