The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards odds are scattered among music’s biggest stars. Madonna leads the way with 13 nominations, while Taylor Swift has 11. Which star will come out on top at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, California? The ceremony will be hosted by Snoop Dogg.
I share my analysis and predictions for three MTV Video Music Award categories in this article. Follow along as I predict who will take home one of the famous “Moon Person” statues that have been a part of the show as long as it has been around!
MTV VMAs Artist of the Year Odds and Predictions Summary
| AWARD | BETTING FAVORITE | PREDICTION |
|---|---|---|
| Artist of the Year | Taylor Swift (+100) | Taylor Swift (+100) |
| Video of the Year | Taylor Swift – “The Fate of Ophelia” (-250) | Madonna – “Confessions II” (+1000) |
| Song of the Year | BTS – “Swim” (-110) | BTS – “Swim” (-110) |
There are a couple of large favorites at entertainment betting sites, but there is value to be found on the board. The MTV Video Music Awards are voted on by fans, so take that into account as you’re making your picks.
You can wager on these MTV VMAs betting markets at BetUS, by going to Sportsbook > Entertainment > Awards Futures > MTV Awards.
MTV VMAs Artist of the Year Odds and Prediction
| ARTIST | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Taylor Swift | +100 |
| Madonna | +250 |
There are other artists nominated for this category, including Ariana Grande, Bruno Mars, Morgan Wallen, and Sabrina Carpenter. But with all due respect to those talented artists, it’s a two-woman race between Taylor Swift and Madonna.
Swift has won the most Video Music Awards in history with 31, including this award in 2023 and 2024. Madonna has won 20 VMAs, and would have likely won this award at some point, if the award had not only started in 2017. Madonna was one of the artists that put MTV on the map, and her re-emergence with “Confessions II” is a credit to her as an artist.
However, this is all Taylor’s world right now, and at plus money, I’ll take her 2026 MTV Video Music Awards odds.
MTV Video Music Awards Video of the Year Odds and Prediction
| ARTIST | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Taylor Swift – “The Fate of Ophelia” | -250 |
| Ariana Grande – “Hate That I Made You Love Me“ | +250 |
| Madonna – “Confessions II“ | +1000 |
It shouldn’t come as any surprise that Taylor Swift is also favored in the MTV VMA odds for Best Video for “The Fate of Ophelia”. She’s followed by Ariana Grande’s “Hate That I Made You Love Me”. Also included in the category are “”I Just Might” by Bruno Mars, “Tears” by Sabrina Carpenter, “and “Storm” (featuring Yung Lean) by Gener8ion.
But I’m a little surprised to see Madonna’s “Confessions II”, and delighted to get it at this price! While the music world now belongs to the likes of Swift and Grande, someone came before them, and that is Madonna. Combined with what she has done for MTV historically, I think she’ll get some sort of award, and I believe it will be Video of the Year! At +1000, I’m willing to take a swing here.
MTV Video Music Awards Song of the Year Odds and Predictions
| ARTIST | ODDS |
|---|---|
| BTS – “Swim“ | -110 |
| Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter – “Bring Your Love“ | +300 |
| RAYE – ‘Where Is My Husband!“ | +400 |
| “HUNTR/X – Golden“ | +500 |
| Ella Langley – “Choosin’ Texas“ | +700 |
| Olivia Dean – “Man I Need“ | +1600 |
| PinkPantheress and Zara Larsson – “Stateside“ | +2000 |
In an absolutely loaded category, I’m siding with the favorites and putting BTS in my 2026 MTV Video Music Awards predictions here.
I think there could be some value in Ella Langley, but in the end, BTS has a massive global following. Remember, these awards are partly voted on by fans, and BTS fans are definitely voting a lot to help their favorites this honor. At -110, I’ll take that price and quite frankly, I’m surprised there isn’t more juice on this bet.
Where to Bet on 2026 MTV Video Music Awards Odds?
Let’s summarize my 2026 MTV VMA betting picks:
- Artist of the Year: Taylor Swift (+100)
- Video of the Year: Madonna – “Confessions II” (+1000)
- Song of the Year: BTS – “Swim” (-110)
You can make these wagers at BetUS, where you’ll be greeted with a welcome bonus of 225% up to $3,625 on your first three deposits! You’ll likely see many of the artists on this page among the upcoming Grammy Award odds in a few months!
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