2025 MTV Video Music Awards Odds and Betting Picks – Who Will Have a Big Night in New York?

In a loaded category, Lady Gaga stands out. Her Mayhem album is wildly popular, and “Die with a Smile”, her duet with Bruno Mars, was a smash hit this year.

Taylor Swift is always a popular choice, but she has been more in the spotlight for her relationship and engagement to Travis Kelce. Kendrick Lamar continues to roll with “Not Like Us”, which was nominated for Song of the Year at last year’s VMAs. Beyonce is in the same boat, as her “Texas Hold’em” song was also nominated. The Weeknd, Bad Bunny, and Morgan Wallen are long shots here.

I’m putting Lady Gaga for Artist of the Year in my 2025 MTV Music Video Award predictions, and she always brings the heat in her videos! But at -550, there isn’t much of a return on the superstar.

The Album of the Year award wasn’t presented in 2024, but there is a good chance Sabrina Carpenter would have been nominated. She won the aforementioned Song of the Year award for “Espresso” and is a sizeable favorite here at entertainment betting sites.

However, that was on “Short n’ Sweet”, which was released in August 2024. I think if the award had been presented last year, Carpenter would have battled with Swift over it. But I’m going to take Lady Gaga again in my 2025 MTV Music Video Award picks, and this time, she offers a good return at +250!

With all due respect to the rest of the 2025 MTV Music Video Award odds in this category, Alex Warren at -500 is as big of a lock as you’ll find.

His song, “Ordinary” is a a massive hit, and Warren has made a solid move from being an influencer to having a music career. Again, I’d stay away from his MTV VMA odds, but Warren is my prediction for Best New Artist.

It’s interesting that “Not Like Us” is favored, despite the video being released in July 2024, two months before last year’s ceremony. I think the time for “Not Like Us” has passed, so I’m taking that off the board.

I’m going to take Carpenter here for “Manchild” at +125 in my MTV Video Music Awards predictions, as I think she’ll take home some sort of award on Sunday night.

You could make an argument that Bruno Mars should be nominated for Artist of the Year, thanks to massive collaborations with Lady Gaga and ROSE, a K-Pop star. His song with the latter, “APT”, continues to get even more popular, even though it was released in October 2024.

At -200, there is a little value in taking “APT” here for Song of the Year; it’s better than taking it at -300 or more. Let’s wrap up our 2025 MTV Video Music Award predictions with “APT”.

• Artist of the Year: Lady Gaga (+250)
• Video of the Year: Manchild (Sabrina Carpenter) (+125)
• Song of the Year: APT (ROSE and Bruno Mars (-200)