NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 4: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Jayson Tatum +475 (Bucks vs. Celtics)

Jayson Tatum stands out as one of the best NBA first basket bets tonight at +475. The Celtics have been excellent in opening jump balls, winning 71.4% of them, giving Boston a strong chance to secure the first possession and put Tatum in position to open the scoring.

Jayson Tatum joined Celtics royalty last night!

☘️ 32 PTS
☘️ 7 AST
☘️ 2 BLK@jaytatum0 became the 3rd player in franchise history (Larry Bird, 1987-88 and John Havlicek, 1970-71) to average 28+ PTS & 7+ AST through the first six games of a season! pic.twitter.com/EUZHoRSKNu

— NBA (@NBA) November 2, 2026

Tatum is off to a productive start offensively, averaging 27 points per game while attempting 20.1 field goals per contest. He’s been aggressive about getting his shots up and remains Boston’s primary scoring option.

His 41.8% shooting percentage leaves room for improvement, but the volume is encouraging for a first basket wager. With Tatum consistently looking to attack and Boston having a strong chance to win the opening tip, +475 is an appealing price on him to score first.

Kyshawn George +750 (Hawks vs. Wizards)

Kyshawn George offers excellent value at +750 to score the first basket against Atlanta. The Wizards have a significant advantage in the opening tip, winning 71.4% of their jump balls compared to just 37.5% for the Hawks. That gives Washington a good chance to control the opening possession and create the first scoring opportunity.

Kyshawn George is off to an impressive start, averaging 16.1 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game while shooting 48.3% from the field. He’s already establishing himself as an important offensive contributor in Washington, and his recent performances make him particularly appealing.

Kyshawn George battles inside… AND-1 💪

George and the @WashWizards are on a 20-6 run and lead on the road! pic.twitter.com/hwoN3nPsSC

— NBA (@NBA) October 25, 2026

George is coming off a 22-point performance against Orlando, where he shot 9-of-15 from the field and knocked down four three-pointers. He’s playing with confidence and getting plenty of opportunities offensively.

With Washington having the edge at the opening tip, I like George’s chances of getting an early scoring opportunity. At +750, he’s worth a look for one of the best NBA first scorer prop bets.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, First Shots Attempted, and First Shots Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the bigger picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.