The Copa America Group D odds of the leading soccer bookies online strongly favor Brazil, but I’m not sure it’s going to be that easy. This is definitely the closest thing we have to a Group of Death in the tournament.
Colombia, Paraguay, and Costa Rica are all decent teams, so there’s no punching bag here. We should have several close games, so let’s analyze all countries before I share my Copa America Group D predictions.
Copa America 2024 Group D Betting Odds
Bovada offers odds on both the Group D winner and teams to progress, so I’ve added both below.
Copa America 2024 Group D Winner Odds
The following Copa America Group D betting odds are courtesy of Bovada:
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Brazil | -250 |
| Colombia | +275 |
| Paraguay | +900 |
| Costa Rica | +2500 |
The best sports betting sites are pretty clear – Brazil should win Group D. The favorite features multiple world-class players and fantastic depth, so that’s hardly a surprise.
The odds of -250 suggest an implied probability of 71.43%, with Colombia distant second at 26.67%. The other two teams are almost out of the picture.
To Qualify From Group D Odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Brazil | -2000 |
| Colombia | -275 |
| Paraguay | +200 |
| Costa Rica | +550 |
The price for Brazil to go through is pretty ridiculous, currently standing at -2000. Colombia is expected to join the favorite, but the other two teams are not completely hopeless, according to the bookies.
Let’s go through the squads next and try to determine whether there’s some value up for grabs.
Brazil (-250) – Hungry For Glory
- Manager: Dorival Junior
- FIFA Ranking: 5th
- Impact Players: Vinicius Junior, Lucas Paqueta, Alisson
- Best Copa America Finish: Winner (9 times)
Brazil will enter Copa America 2024 hungry to regain the top dog label in South American soccer after losing the final to Argentina at home in the previous edition of the tournament.
That’s why head coach Dorival Junior was hired at the start of the year. He can work with world-class players in pretty much all lines, most notably Vinicios Junior, Lucas Paqueta, and Alisson.
This is probably the best squad in the tournament, and the recent results prove it, too. Brazil beat England at the Wembley and were involved in an entertaining 3-3 away draw against Spain in March.
It was an excellent start for the new head coach, who will be confident in the team’s chances at the Copa. Brazil was somewhat unlucky with the draw since this group features decent teams, but the gap between Seleção and the rest is still enormous.
This team is too talented, deep, and hungry to lose the top spot. It should be smooth sailing to the knockouts for the Brazilians, so the odds to win the group are actually pretty decent.
Colombia (+275) – Can They Upset Brazil?
- Manager: Nestor Lorenzo
- FIFA Ranking: 12
- Impact Players: James Rodriguez, David Ospina, Luis Diaz
- Best Copa America Finish: Winner (2001)
The only team that could realistically finish above Brazil is Colombia. Head coach Nestor Lorenzo can rely on a strong group of gritty and talented players who will likely enter the tournament with a long unbeaten streak.
As of mid-May, Colombia is unbeaten in 2023 and 2024, registering wins over teams like Spain, Brazil, and Germany in the process. This team is legit and can grind out results even against the best in the world.
The always-reliable David Ospina provides a steady presence under the bar, while players Luis Diaz and James Rodriguez consistently deliver goals.
These three are surrounded by a bunch of warriors that work tirelessly all over the pitch. It’s a deadly squad that will be very tough to beat in the knockouts.
However, I suspect that Colombia might be prone to draws with weaker opponents that play defensively. The team should easily progress to the eliminations, but not as the group winner.
Paraguay (+900) – Can They Overcome The Horrific Draw?
- Manager: Daniel Gamero
- FIFA Ranking: 56
- Impact Players: Miguel Almiron, Angel Romero, Gustavo Lopez
- Best Copa America Finish: Winners (1953, 1979)
It’s hard to image a worse scenario than getting Brazil and Colombia as your top two teams. I’m not sure that Costa Rica is a good fourth seed either, so Paraguay will feel unlucky going into the tournament.
The team works hard and has several decent players like Almiron, Anger Romero, and Gustavo Lopez, but the overall talent and depth can’t compare to Brazil or Colombia.
They must take something from Colombia to progress. Drawing this game is not impossible, but even then, I don’t trust them against Costa Rica, and they will definitely lose from Brazil.
Costa Rica (+2500) – Can They Even Get A Point?
- Manager: Gustavo Alfaro
- FIFA Ranking: 52
- Impact Players: Keylor Navas, Francisco Calvo, Joel Campbell
- Best Copa America Finish: Quarterfinals (2001, 2004)
On paper, Costa Rica has two Copa America quarterfinal appearances from six attempts and is higher in the FIFA Rankings than Paraguay. You would suggest that the team has a chance, but I believe the Group D betting odds don’t lie.
Costa Rica’s best players are all way past their prime nowadays. The team will play in very defensive setup that might stop Paraguay but will definitely struggle against Brazil and Colombia.
Getting a point is Costa Rica’s ceiling in this tournament, so I don’t suggest backing the underdog to go through.
Copa America 2024 Group D Predictions and Best Bets
I expect Brazil to win this group rather comfortably. Colombia can definitely put up a fight in the direct clash but could draw Paraguay and lose points there.
At the same time, I don’t trust Paraguay’s ability to unlock Costa Rica’s ultra-defensive setup, so it should be easy one-two for Brazil and Colombia.
The odds for Brazil to win and Colombia to qualify might look short to some, but this is by far the most likely outcome in Copa America Group D. There’s still value in both prices, so I’m taking them.
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