The Copa America Group D odds of the leading soccer bookies online strongly favor Brazil, but I’m not sure it’s going to be that easy. This is definitely the closest thing we have to a Group of Death in the tournament.
Colombia, Paraguay, and Costa Rica are all decent teams, so there’s no punching bag here. We should have several close games, so let’s analyze all countries before I share my Copa America Group D predictions.
Copa America 2024 Group D Betting Odds
Bovada offers odds on both the Group D winner and teams to progress, so I’ve added both below.
You can find up-to-date odds on Copa America Group D at Bovada by navigating to All Sports > Soccer > International > Copa America > Copa America Futures > Group D.
Copa America 2024 Group D Winner Odds
The following Copa America Group D betting odds are courtesy of Bovada:
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Brazil | -250 |
| Colombia | +250 |
| Paraguay | +1100 |
| Costa Rica | +2200 |
The best sports betting sites are pretty clear – Brazil (-250) should win Group D. The favorite features multiple world-class players and fantastic depth, so that’s hardly a surprise.
Brazil’s odds have remained the same over the last month. On May 9, the country was -250 to win Group D and they hold the same price as of June 13. As a heavy favorite, the Brazilian side has a 71.4% probability to finish atop Group D.
Colombia (+250) is a distant second, with an implied chance to win of 28.6%. Their odds improved slightly from +275 to +250 since last month. Paraguay (+1100) and Costa Rica (+2200) remain the huge underdogs of Group D.
To Qualify From Group D Odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Brazil | -1802 |
| Colombia | -325 |
| Paraguay | +250 |
| Costa Rica | +525 |
It isn’t a lock, but Brazil (-1802) has an impressive chance of qualifying for the knockout stage at Copa America 2024. Although their odds have dipped slightly from -2000 to -1802, Brazil remains in the driver’s seat as one of the top contenders in the tournament.
The oddsmakers give them an implied probability of 94.7% to progress, while Colombia’s 76.5% suggest this will be the other team in the knockouts. The favorable draw with Paraguay and Costa Rica helps provide the Colombians with a boost.
Brazil (-250) – Hungry For Glory
- Manager: Dorival Junior
- FIFA Ranking: 5th
- Impact Players: Vinicius Junior, Lucas Paqueta, Alisson
- Best Copa America Finish: Winner (9 times)
Brazil will enter Copa America 2024 hungry to regain the top dog label in South American soccer after losing the final to Argentina at home in the previous edition of the tournament.
That’s why head coach Dorival Junior was hired at the start of the year. Junior has an incredibly deep roster to work with at Copa America 2024. None larger than 23-year-old Real Madrid star Vinicius Junior.
Fresh off a clinching goal in the Champions League title match, the winger has to be confident heading into Copa America 2024. He also scored against Man City in the semifinals. Junior is one of the favorites to be the top goalscorer at Copa America 2024.
In addition to Vinicius, Brazil has Lucas Paqueta and Alisson to provide Brazil with options.
🇧🇷 Great goal by Vinícius Júnior in the semis against Man City…#UCL pic.twitter.com/H9yvqPFIZw
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) May 9, 2023
They’ll need to fill the void in Neymar’s absence. He is scheduled to miss Copa America 2024 due to an ACL injury. That said, Brazil still has an abundance of talent to compensate for Neymar’s absence.
This is probably the best squad in the tournament, and the recent results prove it, too. Brazil beat England at the Wembley and were involved in an entertaining 3-3 away draw against Spain in March.
Brazil was in mediocre form in their latest friendly assignments. They bypassed Mexico, 3-2, but a 1-1 draw against the USA wasn’t a great look this month. Nevertheless, I expect them to be ready to go when it matters at Copa America 2024.
Colombia (+250) – Can They Upset Brazil?
- Manager: Nestor Lorenzo
- FIFA Ranking: 12
- Impact Players: James Rodriguez, David Ospina, Luis Diaz
- Best Copa America Finish: Winner (2001)
The only team that could realistically finish above Brazil is Colombia. Head coach Nestor Lorenzo can rely on a strong group of gritty and talented players who will likely enter the tournament with a long unbeaten streak.
As of mid-May, Colombia is unbeaten in 2023 and 2024, registering wins over teams like Spain, Brazil, and Germany in the process. This team is legit and can grind out results even against the best in the world.
In their latest effort, Colombia pulled away from the same squad that Brazil had a 1-1 draw against in the US. They throttled the Americans for a 5-1 victory on June 8.
The always-reliable David Ospina provides a steady presence under the bar, while players Luis Diaz and James Rodriguez consistently deliver goals.
Saved from the spot! 💪
🔵 Napoli's David Ospina 🔥@sscnapoli | #UEL pic.twitter.com/C6JpfjMgCL
— UEFA Europa League (@EuropaLeague) January 19, 2021
These three are surrounded by a bunch of warriors that work tirelessly all over the pitch. It’s a deadly squad that will be very tough to beat in the knockouts.
However, I suspect that Colombia might be prone to draws with weaker opponents that play defensively. The team should easily progress to the eliminations, but not as the group winner.
Injuries aren’t a major concern for Colombia with Copa America approaching, so I fully expect them to be competitive.
Paraguay (+1100) – Can They Overcome The Horrific Draw?
- Manager: Daniel Gamero
- FIFA Ranking: 56
- Impact Players: Miguel Almiron, Angel Romero, Gustavo Lopez
- Best Copa America Finish: Winners (1953, 1979)
With Brazil and Colombia in this group, it’s difficult to envision a scenario where Paraguay will have success. I’m not sure that Costa Rica is a good fourth seed either, so Paraguay will feel unlucky going into the tournament.
The team works hard and has several decent players like Almiron, Anger Romero, and Gustavo Lopez, but the overall talent and depth can’t compare to Brazil or Colombia.
Depth will prove to be a major problem for Paraguay. They can’t turn to their bench and expect instant results. If the starters are struggling, their matches have a chance to get out of control aside from the one against Costa Rica.
In their latest friendly, Paraguay was not competitive in a 3-0 loss to Chile on June 11.
It will take some kind of huge effort for Paraguay to advance. They don’t match up well against Colombia and Brazil, and may very well be upset by Costa Rica. With this in mind, I don’t suggest considering betting on Paraguay’s Copa America Group D odds.
Costa Rica (+2500) – Can They Even Get A Point?
- Manager: Gustavo Alfaro
- FIFA Ranking: 52
- Impact Players: Keylor Navas, Francisco Calvo, Joel Campbell
- Best Copa America Finish: Quarterfinals (2001, 2004)
On paper, Costa Rica has two Copa America quarterfinal appearances from six attempts and is higher in the FIFA Rankings than Paraguay. You would suggest that the team has a chance, but I believe the Group D betting odds don’t lie.
Costa Rica’s best players are all way past their prime nowadays. The team will play in very defensive setup that might stop Paraguay but will definitely struggle against Brazil and Colombia.
Getting a point is Costa Rica’s ceiling in this tournament, so I don’t suggest backing the underdog to go through. I wouldn’t be surprised if they can be competitive and perhaps steal a win over Paraguay.
However, don’t expect much else for Costa Rica. The future looks brighter for Costa Rica, but the present isn’t that appealing. Friendly wins over Grenada and St. Kitts and Nevis this month aren’t enough to impress me.
Copa America 2024 Group D Predictions and Best Bets
I expect Brazil to win this group rather comfortably. Colombia can definitely put up a fight in the direct clash but could draw Paraguay and lose points there.
At the same time, I don’t trust Paraguay’s ability to unlock Costa Rica’s ultra-defensive setup, so it should be easy one-two for Brazil and Colombia.
The odds for Brazil to win and Colombia to qualify might look short to some, but this is by far the most likely outcome in Copa America Group D. There’s still value in both prices, so I’m taking them.
If you’re looking for a good bookmaker, I recommend placing your Copa America 2024 wagers at Bovada! You can find futures, multiple lines for each game, live betting, and props for the tournament.
You can also get a 50% match bonus of up to $250 on first-time deposits for new customers. Bovada is even more generous to cryptocurrency users who can grab a 75% match bonus of up to $750!
Welcome Bonus
75% up to $750
- Wide-ranging sportsbook and live betting platform
- Top-notch poker room with numerous tournaments
- Impressive casino with 500+ slots and live tables
