2024 Nobel Peace Prize Betting Odds and Predictions

Navalny, 47, was regarded as the most well-known political opponent of Russian President Vladimir Putin. On Feb. 16, 2024, the Human Rights Watch reported that Navalny had collapsed and died while in a Russian penal colony².

In August 2023, Navalny was sentenced to a 19-year sentence after being convicted of extremism. In 2020, the staunch critic of Putin was poisoned with a nerve agent, presumably after drinking a cup of tea at Tomsk’s Bogashevo Airport en route to Moscow from Tomsk³.

Out of prison, Navalny was responsible for spearheading many aggressive political campaigns against Putin and the Kremlin. The opposition leader led prominent mass protests throughout Russia for fair elections and human rights.

Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, joined the “Noon against Putin” protests as she queued to cast her ballot at the Russian embassy in Berlin. The protests took place outside voting stations in several countries, including Russia. pic.twitter.com/wcZ0SVeMIT

— DW News (@dwnews) March 17, 2024

Navalny was mostly active during the anti-government protests from 2011 to 2013, but his work and advocacy work against Putin continued until his death. However, controversial comments from his past have made Navalny a polarizing figure.

For instance, in 2007, Navalny made disparaging comments about Muslims in a pro-gun rights video and has been described as an ultranationalist. Additionally, Navalny’s 2013 run for Moscow mayor was based on an anti-migrant platform⁴.

These controversial moments from the activist’s past seem forgotten nowadays, but they might ruin his chances to win the award. Since the odds are very short anyway, I prefer to look elsewhere for my Nobel Peace Prize betting pick.

Zelenskyy, 46, was elected to office after winning the Ukrainian presidential election convincingly with 73 percent of the vote in April 2019⁵. Three years later, Russia invaded Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which started in February 2014.

The former actor and comedian inherited a politically tense situation, with the Kremlin increasingly becoming concerned with Zelenskyy’s pro-West stance. Since Feb. 24, 2022, the Ukrainian president has remained an active figure in the face of Russia’s invasion.

Despite many political pundits expecting a quick and easy win for Putin, Ukraine’s 46-year-old president has stood up to Russian hostilities for more than two years. The conflict has reached a stalemate, with neither side making significant gains on the frontline.

Zelenskyy’s commitment has been widely heralded around the world. Nevertheless, he has been a popular Nobel Peace Prize prediction over the last two years but is yet to win. It’s hard to see how 2024 would be different.

One of the least-known favorites near the top of the Nobel Peace Prize odds, Ilham Tohti, 54, is a top contender to win in 2024.

Although Tohti is not a leading favorite alongside Navalny and Zelenskyy, he deserves high marks on your shortlist of 2024 Nobel Peace Prize bets.

The Uyghur activist is currently serving a life sentence in China after being convicted of separatism in September 2014. Tohti was jailed shortly after he was awarded the Martin Ennals Award for human rights.

9 years ago today Professor Ilham Tohti was arrested for his promotion of peaceful dialogue on the discrimination of Uyghur people.

Nearly a decade later, Professor Tohti remains in detention. Our thoughts are with his family, who we join in demanding his immediate release. pic.twitter.com/MIiSpFMeKn

— Stop Uyghur Genocide (@UyghurStop) January 15, 2023

Tohti has been on China’s radar for more than two decades of trying to understand and build bridges between the Uyghurs and Han Chinese ethnic groups.

The economics professor at Central University used various means to draw attention to the Uyghurs’ plight and treatment in China, including the inability to gain meaningful employment and practice their religion peacefully.

The owner and operator of the website “Uyghur Online”, Tohti educated the public about the ongoing tension between the ethnic groups in China. The website was shut down multiple times — the last being in 2014 in conjunction with his arrest⁶.

Two U.S. lawmakers Rep. Chris Smith and Sen. Jeff Merkley are responsible for Tohti’s Nobel Peace Prize nomination. They are top members of the U.S. Congressional-Executive Commission on China⁷.