2024 Olympic Men’s Water Polo Odds: Spain for the Gold?

2024 Olympic Men’s Water Polo Odds: Spain for the Gold?

The 2024 Olympic water polo men’s odds reveal an incredibly competitive field! As Paris 2024 nears, the best water polo squads in the world are busy preparing for what should be a stacked tournament.

Spain and Hungary are the favorites, but many other teams will be confident in their chances to fight for the medals. Who has what it takes to outlast the competition and take home Olympic gold?

In this article, I assess the latest men’s water polo odds of the top Olympic betting sites, analyze the prices, and share my predictions.

2024 Paris Olympics Men’s Water Polo Betting Odds

The following Paris 2024 men water polo odds are courtesy of BetUS:


Spain (+200) and Hungary (+200) are co-favorites to win the gold medal in the men’s water polo competition. At +200, Spain and Hungary have a 33.3% implied probability of winning gold!

However, stiff competition is expected to give the favorites a run for their money. Italy (+300) is in the mix with the third-best Olympic water polo odds. The oddsmakers of the best online bookmakers give Italy a 25% implied chance to win the gold medal at Paris 2024.

You can find up-to-date men’s Olympic water polo odds by navigating to Sportsbook > Olympics > Olympic Water Polo Outrights.

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Olympics Men’s Water Polo Tournament Key Info

The men’s water polo tournament consists of two groups: Group A and Group B. 12 countries qualified for the event, with teams divided into two groups of six as follows.

Group A:

  • United States
  • Italy
  • Croatia
  • Montenegro
  • Greece
  • Romania

Group B:

  • Australia
  • Spain
  • Serbia
  • Japan
  • France
  • Hungary

The preliminary round will take place from July 28 to August 5. Eight teams will qualify for the quarterfinals, with the fifth and sixth-place squads from each group going home!

All quarterfinal matches are scheduled for August 7. The semifinals will take place on August 9. The two remaining teams will play for Olympic gold on Sunday, August 11.

Favorites for Paris 2024 Men’s Water Polo

Let’s open our analysis with a preview of the top favorites to win gold in men’s water polo. Three nations stand above the rest in the race for Olympic glory.

Spain (+200)

Spain is heading into the Summer Olympics with high hopes for their water polo program. They are looking to capture their first gold medal since 1996 in Atlanta.

Spain’s water polo team took a dive afterward — failing to win a medal in six straight Olympic Games. However, they’ve been a force in international competitions over the last two years.

After winning gold at the 2023 World Cup, Spain followed up with a gold medal at the 2024 European Championship! It was the country’s first gold medal in water polo at the Euros.

They were regarded as an underdog entering the final but came out on top in an 11-10 thriller over defending champion Croatia. Now, Spain is a favorite to win the gold medal at the Olympic Games!

Was this just a case of Spain getting hot at the right time, or are they ready to plow through the competition in France? In Group B with Hungary and Serbia, they didn’t draw the easiest group, but they have plenty of talent.

Hungary (+200)

Hungary has been a water polo powerhouse for a century. With nine Olympic golds, the Hungarians dominated the 2000s. They won the men’s gold medal in 2000, 2004, and 2008.

However, the country has been denied gold in the last three Olympics. Since Beijing in 2008, Hungary finished fifth in back-to-back Summer Games. They finally got back on the podium at Tokyo 2020, though a bronze medal wasn’t their goal.

It was a disappointing result for Hungary after they captured gold at EURO 2020. Last year, Zsolt Varga’s squad found a reason to celebrate with a gold medal at the 2023 World Championships.

Szilard Jansik and his teammates are looking for answers with the Olympics approaching, however. Hungary crashed to seventh at the 2024 World Championships, and fourth at the latest European Championship in January.

It was only the third time since 1993 that Hungary didn’t leave the European Championship with a medal! The Hungarians left the tournament with tough losses against Croatia, 11-8, then falling in the bronze medal match to Italy, 12-7.

Hungary hasn’t played like a championship team that should be a +200 favorite to win gold at the Olympics!

Italy (+300)

Italy is searching for its first men’s water polo gold since Barcelona 1992! The nation won gold in 1948, 1960, and 1992. They won the bronze at Rio 2016 but didn’t reach the podium in Tokyo three years ago.

That being said, Italy had reasons to celebrate at the 2022 World League and 2019 World Championships. Also, Italy has some solid wins on their resume this year.

Head coach Sandro Campagna led the Italians to silver at the 2024 World Championships and bronze at the 2024 European Championship. Italy’s run included a win over Hungary in the 2024 Euros and a winning effort over Spain at the World Championships.

They went the distance with Croatia in the gold medal match, losing a 15-13 nail-biter in extra time at the Euros in January.

Captain 30-year-old Francesco Di Fulvio will return to the Olympics after helping Italy win the bronze medal at Rio 2016. Italy isn’t short of veteran leadership, and Di Fulvio figures to play a pivotal role in this team’s chances.

I see Italy on equal footing as Hungary and Spain. One or two mistakes will be all it takes to sink a team! With this in mind, Italy has the best betting value among the favorites in the Olympic water polo men’s odds.

Top Men’s Water Polo Sleepers for Paris 2024

The men’s Paris 2024 water polo odds reveal three sleepers that all bettors should consider backing. Currently, BetUS has the best 2024 Olympic water polo men betting picks value!

Below, check out my top underdog picks to win gold:

  1. I don’t see Greece as a +700 sleeper at Paris 2024. Public sentiment was low on the country at Tokyo 2020, and they won the silver medal regardless. At the 2024 World Championships, Greece notched big wins over Serbia and France. Also, they came close to knocking off Italy in an 11-10 final.

    Greece is a strong value bet as a sleeper to win the gold medal at +700!

  2. Don’t disregard Serbia’s water polo odds at +1400! Consider backing the team at this generous price, even if it’s just a small wager. Known as one of the best water polo nations in the world, the confident Serbs won gold at Rio 2016 and Tokyo 2020.

    Additionally, Serbia won the World Championships in 2018. Although they lost talent from their gold medal squad in Japan, Uros Stevanovic has to feel confident with this group. Top defensive player and captain 27-year-old Nikola Jaksic’s presence will be felt in Paris.

  3. Does France have an improbable run in them in their home pool in Paris? As the host country, France’s Olympic medal count will likely experience a boost in 2024!

    Will it include Olympic gold in men’s water polo? At a minimum, France is worth considering as a longshot bet at +7000. This is the same team that went down to the wire in a 17-16 loss to Croatia in extra time at the 2024 European Championship in February.

    Also, France upset Hungary in an 11-10 stunner! Despite running out of gas following the loss to Croatia, Team France competed hard and didn’t look like a +7000 underdog. I recommend sprinkling a small bet on France to win the gold at home!

2024 Olympic Water Polo Men’s Prediction and Betting Picks

The men’s water polo tournament is wide open at the 2024 Summer Games. Parity is massive here, with the Olympic title up for grabs between three or four countries.

For my money, I like Italy’s combination of young talent and experienced veterans. Although Spain and Hungary have shorter odds of winning the men’s water polo gold, the Italians have beaten both squads this year.

Italy was a goal away from beating Hungary twice! They blew them out by five goals in the Euros and suffered a close extra-time loss in the World Championships. Di Fulvio’s squad should be a co-favorite alongside Spain and Hungary at +200.

In conclusion, my top men’s Olympic water polo pick is Italy to win the gold medal at Paris 2024!  I’d also suggest backing Serbia if you’re looking for a dark horse or even bet on France, if you want a genuine sleeper.

The Bet

More Olympic Water Polo Odds

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In addition to the men’s tournament, the 2024 Olympic women’s water polo odds  are live at BetUS. Place bets on your favorite teams at a safe and trusted online sportsbook. Also, new customers can take advantage of a can’t-miss match bonus!

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About the Author
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Kyle Eve
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Kyle Eve is a seasoned pro of The Sports Geek. Since joining the team in 2012, Kyle, has covered some of the biggest sporting events in the world. From the Super Bowl and World Series to March Madness, the NBA Finals, Kentucky Derby, and many more, Kyle has provided reliable analysis for millions of readers. After dedicating himself to hockey and football in high school, Kyle placed his first sports bet on his 18th birthday. Since then, he has spent his entire adult life devoting himself to becoming the best sports bettor and casino gambler possible. Kyle is from Windsor, ON, Canada

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