Golden Globe Awards 2026 Betting Preview: Favorites, Predictions, & Best Bets

Best Motion Picture (Drama) Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

Hamnet (-115) is currently the odds-on favorite to win Best Motion Picture in a Drama. Based on Maggie O’Farrell’s novel, Hamnet tells the story of William Shakespeare’s wife as she grieves the loss of their 11-year-old son to the bubonic plague.

Shakespeare’s life and legacy have inspired many interpretations, and Hamnet stands out as one of the most acclaimed in recent memory. With odds of -115, director Chloé Zhao’s film holds a 53.5% implied probability of winning the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture. The musical faces strong competition from Sinners, Sentimental Value, and It Was Just an Accident.

Michael B. Jordan’s Sinners has become a surprise contender in the 2026 Golden Globe Awards. Many critics didn’t even expect Sinners to be nominated, yet at +125, the 1932 Mississippi-set drama-horror film has a 44.4% chance of winning this prestigious category, and has moved from +150. Still, Hamnet remains the favorite to take home the award.

Chloé Zhao's HAMNET is named one of @AmericanFilm's Best Pictures of the Year. pic.twitter.com/vbzS7BFwGt

— Hamnet (@hamnetmovie) December 4, 2025

The deeply moving film has earned an 87% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and 4.2/5 on Letterboxd. While Sinners may have broader appeal with casual viewers, Golden Globe voters are likely to favor Hamnet. Unlike the Gotham Awards, where Hamnet competes with One Battle After Another for Best Feature, Zhao appears to have the edge here.

If you’re interested in a longshot, It Was Just an Accident offers value at +500, although that is down from +800. Nevertheless, for one of my top 2026 Golden Globes picks, Hamnet is the clear choice.

Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy) Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

After scoring big at the Gothams, Leonardo DiCaprio’s One Battle After Another is in the driver’s seat to win Best Motion Picture in a Musical or Comedy. While it isn’t a comedy in the traditional sense, there are comedic elements that classify it in this category.

Putting One Battle After Another into the Musical or Comedy category was a smart move. It could have easily been slotted into Best Motion Picture in a Drama, but it appears like the clear winner here. Nevertheless, One Battle After Another likely could have won both categories, if we’re being honest.

Paul Thomas Anderson’s ‘ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER’ wins Best Feature at the 2025 Gotham Film Awards pic.twitter.com/qSV0e92RRA

— cinesthetic. (@TheCinesthetic) December 2, 2025

One Battle After Another ousted the competition for Best Feature at the Gotham Awards, and I believe it would have been the same at the Golden Globes. Marty Supreme, which could have been in the drama category, too, has the second-shortest odds to win at +700, although it was +200 last week.

Timothée Chalamet and Gwyneth Paltrow have received strong reviews for their performance in Marty Supreme, but the film should fall short in the voting against One Battle After Another. Aside from these two movies, though, I don’t anticipate an upset.

One Battle After Another is set to have a strong showing during awards season, including at the Oscars. The film focuses on Bob, a stoned, over-the-hill revolutionary living on the fringe of society whose daughter suddenly goes missing, has scored a wildly impressive 94% on Rotten Tomatoes and 4.3/5 on Letterboxd.

As my most confident 2026 Golden Globes betting pick, One Battle After Another is the frontrunner to take home Best Motion Picture in a Musical or Comedy. However, it’s out of betting range for me. In just a week, it has moved from -250 to -2000!

Best Podcast of the Year Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

For the first time ever, the Golden Globes will announce a winner for the Best Podcast of the Year category. It’s a close race at the top as Up First from NPR is the favorite!

At odds of +250, Up First holds an 28.6% implied probability of victory. The daily news podcast doesn’t do a deep dive of stories, but rather tries to present it to the audience in a more digestible form.

Good Hang with Amy Poehler had a phenomenal debut on The Ringer. The former star of Parks and Recreation speaks to celebrities in a charming, delightful way. But Poehler isn’t afraid of touchy subjects, as she did with Parks and Rec co-star Aubrey Plaza after the death of her ex-husband Jeff Baena.

Ariana Grande’s episode on ‘Good Hang with Amy Poehler’ is one of the top day-one launches in the show’s history.

Since its debut on November 18, the episode has reached over 200,000 plays in its first 24 hours on Spotify. pic.twitter.com/kOO3Jb6c6K

— Pop Crave (@PopCrave) November 21, 2025

The more likely winner, based on popularity and its recent momentum since launching in March, is Good Hang, which has solid +300 odds. Poehler has already welcomed a star-studded guest list, including Tina Fey, Michelle Obama, Martin Short, Dakota Joshua, the Jonas Brothers, Ariana Grande, Plaza, and more.

Despite launching only in March, Good Hang with Amy Poehler has already reached No. 9 on Spotify. At +300 odds to win Best Podcast of the Year, it presents real value as one of the best Golden Globes Awards betting picks.