Betting Every Underdog During March Madness 2024 – Crazy Or Profitable?

Betting on every underdog in March Madness sounds like a crazy idea, but there might be something to it! The NCAA Division I Tournament is known for its wild nature, so I’m really curious to see if this would work.

I decided to test this approach in 2024 by betting on all underdogs during March Madness. I have no idea what to expect, but I’m excited!

I will be adding all my picks and tracking my results in this post, starting from the First Four, so if you’re interested, make sure to visit after each round.

Update: the tournament has now finished, and this experiment has failed. I made just above $10 by backing underdogs in moneyline wagers ($10 each), but lost a ton from the spreads. I will be back next year, though, with a modified version, so come back to see what happens in 2025!

Also, adding some ground rules would be helpful, so let’s start there.

Betting Every March Madness Underdog – The Rules

Backing all underdogs during March Madness is going to be a crazy adventure, so I want to bring at least some order. Let me explain the plan by going through every major aspect of my idea.

Game Selection

I will be betting on all games, including the First Four, as long as the moneyline for one of the teams is higher than +100. If the odds for both sides are lower than that, I will exclude the game.

I thought about adding more criteria, like only gambling on at least 5-point underdogs and such, but I decided against it. Let’s see what happens by backing every March Madness underdog in 2024, and I might adjust for 2025.

Split Testing: Moneylines And Spreads

I want to try both moneyline and spread bets. That’s why I’m going to essentially place two wages on every March Madness game: I will back the underdog to win, and I will bet against the spread.

I will track the results separately, so we can compare what works better. You could make a case that moneyline bets will work because of the higher odds, but the spread bets should hit more consistently, so who knows.

I don’t want to simply guess, so let’s do both and see what works better!

Line Shopping

Using a single sportsbook for underdog betting would be very limiting, so I will use multiple March Madness betting sites. At the same time, I want to keep it fairly simple and easy to replicate for a regular college basketball fan.

That’s why I decided to limit the number to three bookmakers: Bovada, BetUS, and BetOnline. They are my favorite US sportsbooks and consistently deliver high odds, as well as cool March Madness bonuses and promos.

I won’t use any offers, though, I want to see how this works without any extra help. I will simply check the bookies and get the best March Madness odds and lines for the purpose of my strategy.

Stakes

I wanted to be balanced with my stakes. Initially, I thought about only placing $1 per wager, but I might as well do this one paper if that was going to be the case. At the same time, my second idea of betting $100 on all March Madness underdogs sounded scary.

That’s why I decided to go for $10 per wager. If this goes well, I will be back with higher stakes next year, I promise!

Results And Tracking

I will track my results by posting every single bet in this article before the games (odds and lines included) and updating the outcome when the game is finished. I will split the records in two: one for moneylines and one for spreads. I will also provide my analysis when the whole thing is over.

Moneyline Betting on All March Madness Underdogs

The odds and results for each bet will be added here, with a summary, as soon as Selection Sunday is over, and the odds are published.

UPDATE After The First Four: So far, so good for my moneyline bets! We already have two early winners, netting a nice profit for the opening stage of the tournament. It’s way too early for any conclusions, but I’m happy with the start.

UPDATE After Thursday, March 21: I’m starting to regret betting only $10 per underdog so far! We had a few huge upsets this Thursday, with Oakland leading the way with a +700 victory against Kentucky. This one busted my bracket, but brought me a big win for this experiment. Overall, I’m over $60 ahead so far from moneylines, which is much better than I expected. I’m excited to see what happens next!

UPDATE After Round 1: The results so far are nothing short of amazing! After Oakland gave us a massive win on Thursday, Yale did the same on Friday. The Bulldogs beat a high-flying Auburn for a +615 win, on top of several smaller underdog wins.

We’re over $50 ahead on Friday alone, and well over $100 in the green overall up to this point. I now officially regret picking $10 instead of $100 as the bet size, but I won’t make the same mistake next year! I’ve added all bets for the second round, the odds for the last two are not available, but I will add them soon.

One thing I’ve noticed when I was placing my second-round bets is that BetOnline had the best odds, often exclusive but sometimes tied, for 13 out of the 16 moneyline wagers. If you’re going for only one bookmaker when betting on March Madness underdogs, you should use this one.

Ready to play at BetOnline?

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UPDATE After Saturday, March 23: yesterday was a reality check that was probably overdue. After a historic first round for the underdogs, all eight favorites won their second-round games on Saturday! As a result, we’re now “only” $38.05 ahead from the moneyline bets, which represents almost a 10% pure profit after $400 placed so far.

UPDATE After Sunday March 24: the second round continued to be brutal, so the moneylines are officially losing money now! We’re $15 or so behind, but there’s still time to turn it around. I’ve added the bets for the Sweet 16 (for the spreads, too). If you plan on targeting this round, you should check my Sweet 16 best bets. My picks for the first round did really well, and I expect more of the same!

UPDATE After Thursday March 28: The Sweet 16 started with a bang! We had three moneyline winners in four games last night, putting us back in the green. Another day like that on Friday would guarantee a profit from this experiment, but let’s be patient for now.

UPDATE After Friday March 29: Friday was another good day for the moneyline bets, with two decent wins. The overall profit stands at $47.55 with only 7 games to go in the tournament, so it’s going well. I’ve added the Elite 8 bets in the table below, in case you want to check the odds before the start of the next round.

UPDATE After Sunday, March 31: The Elite 8 started really bad for our experiment, with all three underdogs losing in the first three games. Fortunately, NC State won the last game to keep me $40 bucks ahead with three games left to play. This part of the experiment will end on a profit no matter what! I’ve added the Final 4 bets here, so I’m ready for the next stage!

UPDATE AFTER FINAL 4: The Final 4 brought no upset wins, so we’re just above $20 ahead so far. Let’s see if Purdue can add to that tally in the championship game.

Summary

• Total bets: 63
• Bets won: 20
• Bets lost: 43
• Total staked: $630
• Total Returned: $640.55
• Balance: +$10.55

Note: The following games were excluded because the moneylines for both sides were shorter than or equal to +100. You won’t find them in the next section for the same reason.

• Michigan State vs. Mississippi State (Round 1)
• Nevada vs. Dayton (Round 1)
• Texas A&M vs. Nebraska (Round 1)
• Colorado vs. Florida (Round 1)

Spread Betting on Every March Madness Underdog

The odds, lines, and results for all wagers will be added here, with a summary, as soon as Selection Sunday is over, and the odds are available.

UPDATE After the First Four: the spreads are currently struggling a bit since we only have two winners. Both underdogs that lost did so with a wide margin, but it’s not the end of the world. Let’s see how the rest of the tournament goes!

UPDATE After Thursday, March 21: We’re hitting a respectable 50% of our wagers, which is enough for a small loss of $8.61. Coincidentally or not, that’s almost exactly equal to the 5% margin most bookies are applying to spreads. It’s almost as if they know what they are doing, lol!

UPDATE After Round 1: I predicted that spreads would be losing slightly because the bookies are very good at picking the right lines. It’s almost scary how accurate they are, with the 32 wagers placed split right down in the middle with 16 wins and 16 losses. The result is a slight overall loss that’s roughly equal to the margin. Let’s see if this improves going forward, but I don’t have high hopes for this part of the experiment.

UPDATE After Saturday, March 23: This is the first day in which the spreads outperformed the moneylines, because two of the underdogs stayed within the line. Still, it was a losing day overall and this part of the experiment isn’t going well. It’s almost guaranteed to lose money at this point, so I’m once again happy that I went for $10 wagers! There’s still time, though, so let’s see what happens.

UPDATE After Sunday, March 24: The second day of the second round didn’t go well for the spreads. The results continue to sink, and I’m almost $100 bucks behind now! This one is going to end in the red, no matter what, until the end of the tournament.

UPDATE After Thursday, March 28: We won three of the four spreads yesterday, getting some money back. Even after that, the balance is close to -$80, and we have 8 games left, so even if all of them are wins, this part of the experiment will lose me money. I can’t say I’m surprised, but let’s wait and see what the final results will look like.

UPDATE After Friday March 29: The spreads got another slightly losing day after two wins and two losses on Friday. All Elite 8 wagers are placed, so I hope to at least get some of my money back before the end of the tournament.

UPDATE After Sunday 31: The spreads have let me down big time, as I’m around $100 bucks down after the Elite 8. I’m glad that I didn’t pick $100 as the default wager, though, so that’s a relief! Let’s see what happens in the last few games.

UPDATE After The Final 4: The spreads have been a complete disaster and will lose me over $100. On the bright side, this could’ve been over $1k if I went for $100 wagers!

Summary

• Total bets placed: 63
• Bets won: 26
• Bets lost: 37
• Total staked: $620
• Total Returned: $497.97
• Balance: -$133.13

Final Thoughts

I feel obliged to share some predictions and a warning for this experiment. For a start, please, gamble responsibly if you decide to follow me and bet on all March Madness underdogs this year. It’s a tricky strategy that could easily go wrong, so don’t risk money you can’t afford to lose!

In fact, I fully expect the spread betting part to lose me money over the course of the tournament because the bookies are really good at picking the best lines. Over the course of so many games, it’s hard to beat them with such a simple strategy.

However, I feel that the moneyline approach is not doomed by any means. March Madness consistently delivers upsets, so hitting a few big shocks + enough smaller surprises could be enough to bring me some beer money.

We’ll see what happens, and I promise to analyze the results thoroughly when the tournament is over. In the meantime, I recommend checking the following more traditional March Madness betting articles:

• March Madness 2024 Odds and Predictions
• Best March Madness Contests and Bracket Challenges
• March Madness Betting Strategy