EURO 2024 Group B Odds: Who Wins The Group of Death?

Spain has several young players ready to contribute right away at EURO 2024. The present and future look incredibly bright 21-year-old Pedro “Pedri” Lopez and Nico Williams spearhead a talented core of young guns in Spain.

However, Pedri is gaining a reputation for being too injury-prone and fragile. Despite another injury holding him back for EURO 2024, Williams and Manchester City’s Rodrigo “Rodri” Cascante will likely shoulder the load effectively.

27-year-old Rodri is one of the finest defensive midfielders in Europe and more than capable of delivering crucial goals on top of running the tempo.

#OnThisDay in 2⃣0⃣2⃣3⃣

🤯 Rodri ☄️⚽️💪#UCL | @ManCity pic.twitter.com/Q5Dodujcf9

— UEFA.com DE (@UEFAcom_de) April 11, 2024

There aren’t many players in Group B who can match Rodri’s vision, work rate, and passing ability. He is routinely in the right position with and without the ball. On top of his physical talent, Rodri is a mindful and intelligent player.

In December 21-year-old Williams signed an extension with Athletic Club until 2027. His contract features a £50 million release clause, though, so he will be a hot commodity. Barça, Chelsea, and Tottenham, among others, have interest in Williams’ services¹.

He’s a creative winger who possesses terrific ball-handling and dribbling skills. Rodri and Williams will work well together in the group stage and beyond, supported by the very talented Spanish squad.

In 2024, the Spanish national squad played two friendly matches against Brazil and Colombia. They opened the 2024 calendar with a disappointing 1-0 loss to Colombia, but Rodri, Williams, and others were absent on March 22.

With a team that’s much closer to what we will see at the EUROs, Spain picked up a 3-3 draw against a quality Brazil club on March 26. They have two more matches against Andorra and Northern Ireland before opening EURO 2024 against Croatia.

Spain’s Last Five Results:

• Spain 3 – Brazil 3 (March 26, 2024)
• Colombia 1 – Spain 0 (March 22, 2024)
• Spain 3 – Georgia 1 (Nov. 19, 2023)
• Spain 3 – Cyprus 1 (Nov. 16, 2023)
• Spain 1 – Norway 0 (Oct. 15, 2023)

Spain challenged Group B rivals Italy on June 15, 2023, and Croatia three days later on June 18, 2023, in the Nations League. They outperformed Italy in the semifinals, 2-1, and then beat Croatia in a penalty shootout for a 0(5) – 0(4) victory.

The Spaniards outshot Italy 19-8 and comfortably had more possession, 63% to 37%. In the Nations League final, Spain was the more dominant team again, with 21 to 12 shots and a 55% time of possession advantage².

Still, both games were close, showcasing the biggest issue of the Spaniards – they don’t always make their advantage count.

Still, with positive results against their biggest foes in Group B, Spain’s leading EURO 2024 Group B odds appear accurate at -125. At +800 to win the tournament, Spain has decent outright betting value at EURO 2024.

PSG’s Gianluigi Donnarumma must come up big in the net for Italy. The 25-year-old goalkeeper is regarded as one of the best in Europe. If Italy emerges as the top team in Group B, it will likely be due to Donnarumma playing near to his best.

Luciano Spalletti will also count on midfielders Federico Chiesa and Nicolo Barella to come up big for the Italian side. Chiesa must enter EURO 2024 with a clear focus on the EURO 2024 challenge.

Nicolo Barella only scores screamers 🚀 pic.twitter.com/oWlyMBU5Ax

— GOAL (@goal) August 30, 2022

The 26-year-old Juventus star came up clutch for Italy at EURO 2020, though Donnarumma was ultimately named Player of the Tournament. He scored big goals against Austria and Spain to propel Italy to the championship match.

Over the last month, Chiesa has been in a slight slump, but his ability to press and attack is undeniable when he’s in top form. If he and Nicolo Barella are in good shape for EURO 2024, the Italians will have a chance.

Forward Mateo Retegui should be of great assistance, as well. However, there are more question marks for Italy than Spain right now.

Italy will head into their final prep matches against Turkey and Bosnia undefeated since October 17. In 2024, Italy handled Venezuela, 2-1, and Ecuador, 2-0, in fairly straightforward friendlies.

Italy’s Last Five Results:

• Italy 2 – Ecuador 0 (March 24, 2024)
• Italy 2 – Venezuela 1 (March 21, 2024)
• Italy 0 – Ukraine 0 (Nov. 20, 2023)
• Italy 5 – North Macedonia 2 (Nov. 17, 2023)
• England 3 – Spain 1 (Oct. 17, 2023)

However, there have been some concerns for Italy over the last year. In a rematch against North Macedonia, the Italians posted a draw in a EURO Qualifier match in September. Additionally, Italy lost against EURO 2024 betting favorite England 3-1 in October.

The draw versus Ukraine didn’t instill much confidence in this group, either. Even the 2-1 win over Venezuela wasn’t particularly impressive, with the shots even at 12 and Italy needing a goal from Mateo Retegui in the 80th minute to edge ahead³.

After many pundits wrote Croatia off from another deep World Cup run in 2022, they disproved the doubters with a 3rd place performance. The primary concern was that their main core was getting too old to compete with the younger squads.

However, Luka Modrić had none of it, as they used the experience to their advantage. As the 38-year-old prepares to enter the final EUROs tournament of his prestigious career, Modrić’s leadership is tops in Group B.

🇭🇷📦⚽ ¡GOLAZOS traídos desde Zadar!@lukamodric10 | #Modrić2024 pic.twitter.com/BBNr9AiHxB

— Real Madrid C.F. (@realmadrid) June 26, 2023

The midfielder isn’t quite as sharp as he was, but strong determination and a will to win hasn’t escaped him. Modrić ’s former teammate, 37-year-old Mario Mandžukić, is now an assistant coach for the Croatian national team, but Modrić still treks on!

35-year-old Ivan Perišić suffered an ACL injury in September to end his season. It was a huge blow for Tottenham and an even larger hit for Croatia at EURO 2024. Fortunately, however, Manchester City’s Mateo Kovacic is expected to be in Germany to represent his country.

The nation can also count on Josko Gvardiol, one of the best young defenders in the world. The team has more than enough talent for a good run in the upcoming tournament.

Croatia redeemed themselves to win their final two matches after tough losses to Turkey, 1-0, and Wales, 2-1 in the EURO qualifying rounds. They defeated Latvia, 2-0, and Armenia, 1-0, to earn their seat in Germany⁴.

Croatia’s Last Five Results:

• Croatia 4 – Egypt 2 (March 26, 2024)
• Croatia 0(5) – Tunisia 0(4) (March 23, 2024)
• Croatia 1 – Armenia 0 (Nov. 21, 2023)
• Croatia 2 – Latvia 0 (Nov. 18, 2023)
• Wales 2 – Croatia 1 (Oct. 15, 2023)

As expected, Croatia defeated Tunisia and Egypt as heavy favorites this year. However, requiring a penalty shootout to beat Tunisia wasn’t very convincing.

In recent years, the Croats have had a knack for showing up big when it matters even when there aren’t many expectations. We will see if they can do it again in Modrić ’s curtain call, but they drew the worst group possible!

Albania is loaded with defensive talent on their roster. Captain Elseid Hysaj spearheads a formidable defense that will aim to suffocate opponents to open up a counterattack.

The Lazio full-back is expected to be joined by elite center-back Berat Djimsiti. These two have the talent to muddy a game up and frustrate opposing teams. I am not concerned with Albania’s defensive capabilities in the least, but are they going to find enough goals?

Marash Kumbulla is another fine player, but he specializes in collapsing the opposing attack. Albania will try to defend in numbers and hit on the counter, but they must be flawless to progress.

The Albanians haven’t scored a goal since a 1-1 draw to Moldova in November 2023. Their most impressive recent international match was a 3-0 victory over Czechia in the EURO Qualifiers a month earlier.

They also posted a strong 2-0 win over Poland in September 2023. However, they’ve since struggled to find the net.

Albania’s Last Five Results:

• Sweden 1 – Albania 0 (March 25, 2024)
• Chile 3 – Albania 0 (March 22, 2024)
• Albania 0 – Faroe Islands 0 (Nov. 20, 2023)
• Albania 1 – Moldova 1 (Nov. 17, 2023)
• Albania 3 – Czechia 0 (Oct. 12, 2023)

Alabama managed to put only one shot on target against Sweden. The loss to Chile was even worse, with no shots in a 3-0 defeat⁵. They were the superior team versus Faroe Islands, but couldn’t finish their chances against a fairly poor opponent.