EURO 2024 Group B Odds: Who Wins The Group of Death?

EURO 2024 Group B Odds: Who Wins The Group of Death?

As the 17th edition of the UEFA European Championship quickly approaches, I explore the latest EURO 2024 Group B odds at the best soccer betting sites. Regarded as the “Group of Death”, Group B features three of the most talented squads in EURO 2024: Spain, Italy, and Croatia.

No one expects much from Albania, the fourth country here, but the underdogs will play with zero pressure and that’s always dangerous.

Below, check out the latest odds and my analysis of each country. Lastly, I finish with UEFA EURO 2024 Group B predictions and picks!

EURO 2024 Group B Betting Odds

Group B is not the group that any nation wanted to draw! Spain, Italy, and Croatia would have had stronger odds to advance to the knockout stage in an easier group.

However, by the luck of the draw, all three countries are contending against one another. Albania, who received the worst luck, is expected to go home.

You can find up-to-date odds on EURO 2024 Group B at Bovada by navigating to Sports > Soccer > UEFA Euro 2024 > Futures > EURO – GROUP B.

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Group B Winner Odds

The following EURO 2024 group stage odds are courtesy of Bovada:


Since our last EURO 2024 Group B odds update in April, Spain’s (-135) price to win has improved. On April 26, the country was a -125 favorite to win Group B. Now, they are a -135 betting favorite heading into the tournament in June.

Currently, the Spaniards have an implied probability of finishing atop the group of 57.4%! Meanwhile, Italy’s (+225) odds of winning Group B have regressed, as the defending champions’ price shifted from +200 to +225. The country has roughly a 3% less chance of winning than two months ago if you trust the oddsmakers.

Although Albania (+2200) has tough EURO 2024 Group B odds, they’ve seen a boost over the last two months! Albania’s price was cut from +2500 to +2200, for a modest gain. Croatia (+450) is the only country that hasn’t witnessed any change to their odds. 

To Qualify From Group B Odds


Albania (+300) is the only squad from Group B that is not expected to advance to the knockouts. Despite Italy (-700) and Croatia (-335) not projected to win Group B, public sentiment still favors these two storied programs advancing to the next round.

That’s because the best third-placed teams will be part of the eliminations. A win over Albania and another point somewhere else should be more than enough.

As the heavy favorite, Spain has an implied chance to advance of 93.3%. Spain’s (-1400) price has remained roughly the same from April to June, though Italy has moved from -600 to -700 and Croatia from -325 to -335. Put differently, public opinion on Italy and Croatia getting to the knockouts has been upgraded.

Spain – The Group of Death Winners?

Spain is expected to improve one spot in the group stage standings after finishing 2nd three years ago. In a group with Sweden, Slovakia, and Poland in 2021, Spain qualified with five points, behind Sweden’s seven.

Will they win Group B and then play spoiler with a run to the final?

Despite being in a tougher group this year, Spain’s chances have improved to get the outright win. The country has the shortest EUROs Group B odds, but is that deserved?

Impact Players

Spain has several young players ready to contribute right away at EURO 2024. The present and future look incredibly bright 21-year-old Pedro “Pedri” Lopez and Nico Williams spearhead a talented core of young guns in Spain.

However, Pedri is gaining a reputation for being too injury-prone and fragile. Despite another injury holding him back for EURO 2024, Williams and Manchester City’s Rodrigo “Rodri” Cascante will likely shoulder the load effectively.

27-year-old Rodri is one of the finest defensive midfielders in Europe and more than capable of delivering crucial goals on top of running the tempo.

There aren’t many players in Group B who can match Rodri’s vision, work rate, and passing ability. He is routinely in the right position with and without the ball. On top of his physical talent, Rodri is a mindful and intelligent player.

In December 21-year-old Williams signed an extension with Athletic Club until 2027. His contract features a £50 million release clause, though, so he will be a hot commodity. Barça, Chelsea, and Tottenham, among others, have interest in Williams’ services.

He’s a creative winger who possesses terrific ball-handling and dribbling skills. Rodri and Williams will work well together in the group stage and beyond, supported by the very talented Spanish squad.

While Spain brings a talented core to Germany for EURO 2024, there are some concerns on the injury front. Real Betis attacking midfielder and winger Isco broke his leg a few weeks ago. Then, only days later, Valencia’s Jose Gaya will be unavailable with a hamstring injury.

This could affect the team’s depth, but it should be a problem later in the tournament. Spain should be fine in the group stages.

Recent Performances & Team Form

In 2024, the Spanish national squad played two friendly matches against Brazil and Colombia. They opened the 2024 calendar with a disappointing 1-0 loss to Colombia, but Rodri, Williams, and others were absent on March 22.

Most recently, Spain blew out Andorra, 5-0 in one of their final tune-ups before the tournament begins. They are scheduled to play Northern Ireland in their last international friendly this Saturday before Group B play begins on June 15.

With a team that’s much closer to what we will see at the EUROs, Spain picked up a 3-3 draw against a quality Brazil club on March 26. They have two more matches against Andorra and Northern Ireland before opening EURO 2024 against Croatia.

Spain’s Last Five Results:

  • Spain 5 – Andorra 0 (June 5, 2024)
  • Spain 3 – Brazil 3 (March 26, 2024)
  • Colombia 1 – Spain 0 (March 22, 2024)
  • Spain 3 – Georgia 1 (Nov. 19, 2023)
  • Spain 3 – Cyprus 1 (Nov. 16, 2023)

Spain challenged Group B rivals Italy on June 15, 2023, and Croatia three days later on June 18, 2023, in the Nations League. They outperformed Italy in the semifinals, 2-1, and then beat Croatia in a penalty shootout for a 0(5) – 0(4) victory.

The Spaniards outshot Italy 19-8 and comfortably had more possession, 63% to 37%. In the Nations League final, Spain was the more dominant team again, with 21 to 12 shots and a 55% time of possession advantage.

Still, both games were close, showcasing the biggest issue of the Spaniards – they don’t always make their advantage count.

Nevertheless, Spain’s positive results against Group B foes in previous matchups bode well for this team. The Spaniard’s leading EURO 2024 Group B odds appear accurate at -135. At +850 to win the tournament, Spain has decent outright betting value at EURO 2024.

Italy – Can The Italians Defend Their Title?

In the most disappointing absence at the 2022 World Cup, Italy failed to qualify after winning the European Championship a year earlier. The pressure of a nation was squarely on their shoulders, and the weight was just too much for the Italians versus North Macedonia.

Italy was the first country since Greece in 2006 to win the European Championship, but not qualify for the subsequent World Cup. The nation is coming to EURO 2024 with a lot to prove!

Impact Players

PSG’s Gianluigi Donnarumma must come up big in the net for Italy. The 25-year-old goalkeeper is regarded as one of the best in Europe. If Italy emerges as the top team in Group B, it will likely be due to Donnarumma playing near to his best.

Luciano Spalletti will also count on midfielders Federico Chiesa and Nicolo Barella to come up big for the Italian side. Chiesa must enter EURO 2024 with a clear focus on the EURO 2024 challenge.

Chiesa was in a slump, but he’s on a heater after going nine matches without a goal. The talented Juventus forward scored in back-to-back matches to close out the Serie A schedule. If he and Nicolo Barella are in good shape for EURO 2024, the Italians will have a chance.

Forward Mateo Retegui should be of great assistance, as well. However, there are more question marks for Italy than Spain right now. Mainly, they have several defensive woes entering their EUROs title defense.

Francesco Acerbi is dealing with a groin injury, while talented 20-year-old Giorgio Scalvini tore his ACL in Atalanta’s final match of the season. It’s a critical blow to an Italian squad that is up against the odds to win EURO 2024 Group B.

Recent Performances & Team Form

Italy is coming off a mediocre performance in a friendly draw against Turkey. The Turkish team is decent, but Italian fans expected more. They’ll wrap up their international friendly schedule against Bosnia on Sunday.

Otherwise, in 2024, Italy handled Venezuela, 2-1, and Ecuador, 2-0, in fairly straightforward friendlies.

Italy’s Last Five Results:

  • Italy 0 – Turkey 0 (June 4, 2024)
  • Italy 2 – Ecuador 0 (March 24, 2024)
  • Italy 2 – Venezuela 1 (March 21, 2024)
  • Italy 0 – Ukraine 0 (Nov. 20, 2023)
  • Italy 5 – North Macedonia 2 (Nov. 17, 2023)

Overall, Italy has been in strong form over the last year. However, there are also some concerning moments. Beating the likes of England and France will require this team to punch above its weight.

The draws versus Ukraine and Turkey don’t instill much confidence in this group, either. Even the 2-1 win over Venezuela wasn’t particularly impressive, with the shots even at 12 and Italy needing a goal from Mateo Retegui in the 80th minute to edge ahead.

Croatia – Modrić ’s Last Dance For Gold?

Croatia is out for sweet revenge at EURO 2024 after Spain ended their European Championship dreams in the previous edition of the tournament. They were blocked from reaching the quarterfinals with a 5-3 loss to Spain in the Round of 16.

Quarterfinal appearances in 1996 and 2008 remain Croatia’s best performance at UEFA EUROs. However, finishing as the runner-up at the 2018 World Cup and the 3rd place finish at the 2022 World Cup are fresh in the minds of Croats around the world.

Impact Players

After many pundits wrote Croatia off from another deep World Cup run in 2022, they disproved the doubters with a 3rd place performance. The primary concern was that their main core was getting too old to compete with the younger squads.

However, Luka Modrić had none of it, as they used the experience to their advantage. As the 38-year-old prepares to enter the final EUROs tournament of his prestigious career, Modrić’s leadership is tops in Group B.

The midfielder isn’t quite as sharp as he was, but strong determination and a will to win hasn’t escaped him. Modrić ’s former teammate, 37-year-old Mario Mandžukić, is now an assistant coach for the Croatian national team, but Modrić still treks on!

35-year-old Ivan Perišić suffered an ACL injury in September to end his season. It was a huge blow for Tottenham and an even larger hit for Croatia at EURO 2024. Fortunately, however, Manchester City’s Mateo Kovacic is expected to be in Germany to represent his country.

The nation can also count on Josko Gvardiol, one of the best young defenders in the world. The team has more than enough talent for a good run in the upcoming tournament.

Recent Performances & Team Form

Croatia made it look easy in a recent 3-0 victory over North Macedonia. That puts the country on a five-match win streak with one friendly remaining against Portugal.

In the EURO Qualifying rounds, Croatia redeemed themselves to win their final two matches after falling to Turkey and Wales. The Croats defeated Latvia, 2-0, and then edged out Armenia, 1-0, to punch their ticket to Germany.

Croatia’s Last Five Results:

  • Croatia 3 – North Macedonia 0 (June 3, 2024)
  • Croatia 4 – Egypt 2 (March 26, 2024)
  • Croatia 0(5) – Tunisia 0(4) (March 23, 2024)
  • Croatia 1 – Armenia 0 (Nov. 21, 2023)
  • Croatia 2 – Latvia 0 (Nov. 18, 2023)

As expected, Croatia defeated Tunisia and Egypt as heavy favorites this year. However, requiring a penalty shootout to beat Tunisia wasn’t very convincing.

Nevertheless, this team has a knack for rising to the occasion when it matters the most in major international competitions. With Croatia +450 to win Group B, it appears line makers of online betting apps have forgotten about their relentless determination in these events!

Albania – Draw Their Way To The Knockouts?

The unfortunate Albanians perhaps drew the worst luck of any team at EURO 2024. They would have benefited from swapping spots with one of the teams from Group A.

Impact Players

Albania is loaded with defensive talent on their roster. Captain Elseid Hysaj spearheads a formidable defense that will aim to suffocate opponents to open up a counterattack.

The Lazio full-back is expected to be joined by elite center-back Berat Djimsiti. These two have the talent to muddy a game up and frustrate opposing teams. I am not concerned with Albania’s defensive capabilities in the least, but are they going to find enough goals?

Marash Kumbulla is another fine player, but he specializes in collapsing the opposing attack. Albania will try to defend in numbers and hit on the counter, but they must be flawless to progress.

Rey Manaj might provide a spark that Albania needs for their offense at EURO 2024 after a strong campaign in Turkey this past season. In 2023-2024, Manaj was a dominant force, with 18 goals and three assists in 33 matches for Sivasspor!

Recent Performances & Team Form

The Albanians have some momentum entering EURO 2024. The country handed Liechtenstein a 3-0 loss in their latest international friendly. It isn’t the stiffest competition, but a confidence booster regardless.

This was the first match Albania scored a goal in since a 1-1 draw versus Moldova in November 2023.  Their most impressive recent international match was a 3-0 victory over Czechia in the EURO Qualifiers a month earlier.

They also posted a strong 2-0 win over Poland in September 2023. However, Albania struggled to find the back of the net before finding their stride on June 3.

Albania’s Last Five Results:

  • Albania 3 – Liechtenstein 0 (June 3, 2024)
  • Sweden 1 – Albania 0 (March 25, 2024)
  • Chile 3 – Albania 0 (March 22, 2024)
  • Albania 0 – Faroe Islands 0 (Nov. 20, 2023)
  • Albania 1 – Moldova 1 (Nov. 17, 2023)

Before the playmakers woke up against Liechtenstein, Albania recorded just one shot on target versus Sweden in March. The loss to Chile was even worse, with no shots in a 3-0 defeat5. They were the superior team versus Faroe Islands, but couldn’t finish their chances against a fairly poor opponent.

EURO 2024 Group B Predictions and Best Bets

Spain is the odds-on favorite to win Group B, but I see this race as being wide-open. Albania has to take chances and defend perfectly. Efficiency will decide this group, since it’s going to be close.

Spain, Italy, and Croatia can all beat each other on any given day. One mistake can lead to a loss. Understandably, the Spaniards have the most talented roster, but I don’t know if the European Championship 2024 Group B odds demonstrate accurately how even they are.

In Modrić’s final rodeo, it’s hard to say no to the Croats to win Group B at +450. The entire squad should be motivated to deliver a top-class performance in his last European Championship and the odds are too high to ignore.

Modrić’s side is battle-tested, confident, and motivated, so I recommend a best bet on Croatia to win Group B.

The Bet
Croatia To Win Group B

More Predictions for EURO 2024

The Sports Geek is providing comprehensive coverage of the EURO 2024 from the first match to the championship in Berlin. For more EURO 2024 predictions, check out our latest group stage picks and EURO 2024 title match picks.

We will also cover all other groups, so check out the following previews.

After reading through our soccer betting guide and deciding on your strategy, check out Bovada for the top UEFA EURO 2024 odds and bonuses. New players can claim a 50% match bonus of up to $250, or a 75% cryptocurrency match bonus of up to $750!

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Kyle Eve is a seasoned pro of The Sports Geek. Since joining the team in 2012, Kyle, has covered some of the biggest sporting events in the world. From the Super Bowl and World Series to March Madness, the NBA Finals, Kentucky Derby, and many more, Kyle has provided reliable analysis for millions of readers. After dedicating himself to hockey and football in high school, Kyle placed his first sports bet on his 18th birthday. Since then, he has spent his entire adult life devoting himself to becoming the best sports bettor and casino gambler possible. Kyle is from Windsor, ON, Canada

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