The EURO 2024 Group D betting odds show two clear favorites. The best soccer bookies online expect France and the Netherlands to dominate the opposition, which is hardly a surprise.
Still, Austria and Poland are decent sides that won’t go down without a fight. On top of that, the four best 3rd-placed teams will progress to the knockouts, so there’s everything to play for.
I go through all teams and the odds, before sharing my predictions and best bets for Group D, so check the article out if you want to bet on this one!
EURO 2024 Group D Betting Odds
Bovada offers odds on both the potential Group D winner and on each team to progress to the knockouts. That allows some flexibility in your betting strategy, so let’s check all available prices.
Group D Winner Odds
The soccer European Championship 2024 group D winner odds are courtesy of Bovada:
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| France | -185 |
| Netherlands | +275 |
| Austria | +800 |
| Poland | +1000 |
France is the clear favorite in Group D, with the Netherlands second. The odds suggest an implied probability of 64.91% for France to win the group, compared to 26.67% for the Dutch.
The other two teams here, Austria and Poland, are far behind and unlikely to top Group D. That’s hardly a surprise, given the quality and depth of the favorites.
To Qualify From Group D Odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| France | -2000 |
| Netherlands | -500 |
| Austria | -110 |
| Poland | +125 |
Again, the bookies see France and the Netherlands as almost certain participants in the knockouts. Both Austria and Poland are on the fence, according to the Group D odds.
The big question is whether the third-best team here will do enough to earn a spot in the eliminations. I’m not so sure, because I can definitely see a suicidal draw in the match between Austria and Poland.
You should operate under the assumption that only two teams from this group will progress.
France – Can Mbappe Lead The Country To The Title?
France has been one of the most dominant teams in soccer over the past decade or so. The country won the 2018 World Cup and then reached the final of the same tournament in 2022.
You could say that EURO 2020 was a disappointment, but overall, France is always among the favorites and this year’s European Championship is not an exception.
The squad features world-class players in multiple positions, making it an excellent outright winner pick. I don’t expect France to struggle in the group stage, even if the competition in this Group D is pretty strong.
Impact Players
This team is blessed with talent, but the obvious pick for an impact player is Kylian Mbappe. Many believe he is the best player in the world right now, and it’s easy to see why.
His blistering pace, combined with excellent technique and finishing make the forward deadly. Just ask Argentina, the team he scored a hattrick against in a World Cup final!
That’s right, Mbappe consistently delivers when the pressure is on, so France can rely on him in the clutch.
On top of that, the country has players like the Hernandes brothers, Saliba, Upamecano, Camavina, Tchouameni, Ousmane Dembele, Coman, and Olivier Giroud.
The combination of experience and youth is remarkable, giving head coach Didier Deschamps plenty of reliable options.
Recent Performances & Team Form
A quick look at France’ s recent results shows some concerning matches1. The team lost against Germany and drew against Greece, but I wouldn’t read too much into that.
Big teams often experiment with their lineups in games with no stakes, so I’m not concerned concerned about friendlies and qualifiers that took place after France already booked a place in the EUROs.
France’s Last Five Results:
- France 3 – 2 Chile (March 26, 2024)
- France 0 – 2 Germany (March 23, 2024)
- Greece 2 – 2 France (Nov. 21, 2023)
- France 14 – 0 Gibraltar (Nov. 18, 2023)
- France 4 – 1 Scotland (Oct. 17, 2023)
Conceding two goals in each of the last three games is the obvious red flag. However, France has an excellent defensive record in big tournaments under Deschamps, so I’m not worried.
It will be very tough to score against this team in EURO 2024, while Mbappe and the rest of the attacking line can get the job done at the other end.
The Netherlands – One Of The Dark Horses To Win It All?
This Dutch team looks scary on paper and should be hard to beat in the upcoming tournament. The country lacks the depth of top favorites like France or England, but the starting eleven can match pretty much anyone in the EUROs.
The defense is especially talented, but there are more than enough top players in the middle of the park and upfront.
The Netherlands will be aiming at a deep run in 2024, so progressing to the next stage is the bare minimum for the Dutch.
Impact Players
The defense is where you can find multiple potential match winners for the Dutch. The skipper Virgil van Dijk has been one of the best central defenders in Europe for years now.
He is an almost flawless one-on-one defender and a fantastic leader. When you surround such a player with guys like Nathan Ake, Matthijs de Ligt, Jeremie Frimpong, and Denzel Dumfries, it becomes really hard to score against the Netherlands.
There were some concerns about the midfield after Frenkie De Jong’s injury, but the Barcelona star will be back in time for the EUROs2.
He will dictate the tempo, while the likes of Gakpo, Depay, and Malen should deliver enough goals.
Recent Performances & Team Form
The last five games of the Netherlands have brought mixed results3. Most notably, the team lost 1-2 against France at home in a qualifier, after a heavier 4-0 defeat away, earlier in the same cycle.
That’s the biggest concern, since the two teams are in the same group in Germany.
The Netherlands’ Last Five Results:
- Germany 2 – 1 Netherlands (March 26, 2024)
- Netherlands 4 – 0 Scotland (March 22, 2024)
- Gibraltar 0 – 6 Netherlands (Nov. 21, 2023)
- Netherlands 1 – 0 Republic of Ireland (Nov. 18, 2023)
- Greece 0 – 1 Netherlands (Oct. 16, 2023)
Keeping clean sheets in the crucial qualifiers against Ireland and Greece clearly show that the Dutch rely on their defense. That’s to be expected given the personnel at Ronald Koeman’s disposal.
However, the Netherlands is not used to play defensively, historically speaking. I’m also concerned about the lack of a world-class goalkeeper in the Dutch team.
This group is still too strong to go home early, so I expect them to progress to the knockouts.
Austria – Can Team Spirit Beat Star Power?
Austria is really hard to evaluate. The team is disciplined and full of serviceable players who know their roles, but the country lacks star power.
France and the Netherlands have multiple world-class players, while the Austrians must rely on team spirit. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but I’m not sure this squad has enough talent to progress from such a tough group.
Impact Players
Austria has one true star in David Alaba, who will most likely miss the tournament after suffering an ACL injury in December. This is a huge blow for the country that will now have to rely on other players to lead the squad.
Michael Gregoritsch is a very solid target man, while the young Christoph Baumgartner is likely the team’s most talented player in Alaba’s absence.
He will operate alongside Marcel Sabitzer in the middle of the park and this duo simply must deliver for Austria to qualify.
The rest of the squad is full of players from the German Bundesliga, so these guys know each other well and should have better cohesion than most teams in the EUROs.
Recent Performances & Team Form
The latest results have been very impressive for Austria4.
Austria’s Last Five Results:
- Austria 6 – 1 Turkey (March 26, 2024)
- Slovakia 0 – 2 Austria (March 23, 2024)
- Austria 2 – 0 Germany (Nov. 21, 2023)
- Estonia 0 – 2 Austria (Nov. 15, 2023)
- Azerbaijan 0 – 1 Austria (Oct. 16, 2023)
The team has won five in a role, scoring 13 goals and conceding only one in the process. Most notably, Austria beat EURO 2024 hosts Germany in March.
The Austrians will have plenty of confidence for the EUROs, so they won’t be an easy opponent. Unfortunately, the draw sent to one of the toughest groups in the entire tournament.
Poland – Can This Team Finally Perform In A Big Tournament?
It’s really hard to trust this Polish team that has qualified for most big tournaments in the past decade without leaving a mark in any of them.
The talent is there, but Poland usually fails to deliver at the highest stage. Considering the draw for EURO 2024, I expect more of the same.
Impact Players
Robert Lewandowski might be 35, but he is still a goalscoring machine. The striker found the net 20 times for Barcelona this season, so he is still Poland’s leading man and captain.
This team features other stars, though, including Juventus goalkeeper Wojcieh Szczęsny, Arsenal youngster Jakub Kiwior, Napoli’s Piotr Zielinski, and Jan Bednarek.
It’s a decent squad, but I don’t expect much based on what I’ve seen in previous big tournaments. The only time Poland qualified for the knockouts since 1986 was in the 2022 World Cup, where the team was eliminated in the Last 16.
Recent Performances & Team Form
Poland went through hell against Wales in the latest match, but eventually survived to win 5-4 on penalties and qualify for the European Championship 2024.
The team has some decent results in the last 6 months5, but nothing too impressive.
Poland’s Last Five Results:
- Wales 0 (5) – (4) 0 Poland (March 26, 2024)
- Poland 5 – 1 Estonia (March 21, 2024)
- Poland 2 – 0 Latvia (Nov. 21, 2023)
- Poland 1 – 1 Czechia (Nov. 17, 2023)
- Poland 1 – 1 Moldova (Oct. 15, 2023)
This team is solid but unspectacular and will struggle to qualify for the knockouts. In fact, I won’t be shocked if Poland is last in Group D when it’s all said and done.
EURO 2024 Group D Predictions and Best Bets
France and the Netherlands should meet the expectations and qualify from this group. The 2018 World Cup winners are strong enough to finish first, so getting -185 for the top favorite makes a lot of sense.
I expected to see a price closer to -250 for the ultra-talented French side. Sure, the Netherlands are a tough opponent, but France already beat the same team twice in the qualifiers.
The Netherland should progress, too, but the odds are way too short in the presence of Austria. I expect Poland to be last, simply because this team rarely delivers at the highest stage.
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Sources:
France Results | ESPN. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/soccer/team/results/_/id/478/france”
Frenkie De Jong Season Over | Goal.com. Retrieved From “https://www.goal.com/en/lists/frenkie-de-jong-season-over-barcelona-star-ruled-out-la-liga-run-in-dutchman-survives-euro-2024-scare/bltd224ea7e0cf76a8c”
The Netherlands Results | ESPN.com. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/soccer/team/results/_/id/449/ned”
Austria Results | ESPN.com. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/soccer/team/results/_/id/474/aut ”
Poland Results | ESPN.com. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/soccer/team/results/_/id/471/pol”
