Bellator 296 Odds and Predictions

Bellator 296

On Friday, May 12, Bellator returns to action with Bellator 296 live from the Accor Arena in Paris, France. The featured bout of the evening is a middleweight title eliminator with former champ Gegard Mousasi taking on Fabian Edwards.  

The co-featured bout is a lightweight Grand Prix quarterfinal bout between Mansour Barnaoui and Brent Primus. In total, there are 17 fights scheduled for this card. You can bet on the entire Bellator 296 lineup at the best MMA betting sites.

Bellator 296 Odds

The following Bellator 296 odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

FighterOdds Fighter Odds
Gegard Mousasi-280Mansour Barnaoui-325
Thibault Gouti-180Douglas Lima+110
Saul Rogers-200Simon Biyong-155
Gregory Babene-150Chris Gonzalez-280
Romain Debienne+200Luca Poclit+140
Denise Kielholtz-270Nicolo Solli-118
Aridane Romero Rodriguez+350Asael Adjoudj-400
Brett Johns+350Sarvarjon Kahmidov-700
Yves Landu+105

Simon Biyong stands out as the top value pick. We are very confident in his success and his payout is shocking when you consider his opponent.

Lima is our top upset of the week, with a double your money payout on one of Bellator’s most successful lightweights taking a massive step down in competition after a losing streak against the division’s best.

Bellator 296 Predictions

We’re looking at a competitive Bellator 296 card, with few fighters above the main event -280 moneyline. Big favorites like the undefeated Savarjon Khamidov are worth putting on a parlay alongside Mousasi and Biyong.

Fabian Edwards +220 vs Gegard Mousasi -280

After the loss to Johnny Eblen, there was talk of the 37-year-old Mousasi retiring. He was dominated in wrestling exchanges, but wasn’t damaged in a way that would affect his future fighting prospects.

Edwards has caught a few high-quality fighters at the end of their careers, notably his most recent wins over Lyoto Machida and Charlie Ward.

This fight is set to be far more exciting than either man’s last performance. Mousasi and Edwards are both willing to seek the knockout win, and both are making a run at the title that will require exciting performances to get a rematch with Eblen.

Stats for Edwards vs Mousasi Betting Picks

FighterCareer KnockoutsLosses via TKO,  SubmissionRecordAgeReach
Fabian Edwards40,011-23079.5 inches
Gegard Mousasi271,349-8-23776 inches

Mousasi has double the career wins of anyone Edwards has faced, and he has more career TKOs than Edwards has pro-am fights. The experience difference is massive, but this could be another fight where Edwards continues to dethrone the old guard of MMA.

Our Bellator 296 betting pick for the main event goes to the former champion, Mousasi. Edwards has plenty of holes left in his takedown defense, which Mousasi is more likely to exploit.

In a contest of chins, we’ve never even seen Edwards tested, and Mousasi will find a way to land. Sometimes, a fighter’s first time experiencing elite TKO power causes a panic. We see Edwards falling short, likely by TKO finish.

The Bet
Gegard Mousasi

Brent Primus +250 vs Mansour Barnaoui -325

Barnaoui is one of the more underrated Bellator fighters, seeing his second fight for the promotion against Brent Primus. This should be closer to a -500 favorite position for Mansour at sports betting sites, whose last loss was against Mateus Gamrot at KSW.

He dominated Adam Piccoli in a grappling exchange, but we should see more of Barnaoui’s striking ability in this fight.

Primus is a submission grappler to the core, with only one career KO over grappler Chris Jones back in 2014. Barnaoui’s wrestling and knockout power have given him six career TKO wins, and that should be the deciding factor.

Even if the fight goes to decision, Barnaoui is much better at racking up rounds with superior striking skills.  

The Bet
Mansour Barnaoui

Kane Mousah +150 vs Thibault Gouti -180

Betting favorite Gouti was 1-5 in the UFC overall and is coming off a loss to Alfie Davis. Having started his career in 2011, Gouti’s longest winning streak ended in 2015. In the past eight years, he’s gone 6-6, in addition to losing to David Teymur on TUF 22.

Mousah is a 36 year old coming off an upset win over Georgi Karakhanyan. He’s got a well-rounded game, but at 5’8’’ he’s a little too small for the modern lightweight division.

This is a value bet, but one to keep off the parlay. Look for a Gouti by TKO or Decision prop later in the week for a slight boost in odds and value.

The Bet
Thibault Gouti

Costello van Steenis -140 vs Douglas Lima +110

Lima looks to make a return after a chaotic four fight losing streak at Bellator. Each of his last four fights have been against good fighters, including Michael Page, Mousasi and Yaroslav Amosov.

After nearly a year off, the 35-year-old returns against 14-2 van Steenis, who’s dangerous on the feet and quick with the submission in grappling exchanges.

The deciding factor here is Lima’s preparedness against Costello’s technical ability on the feet. Lima will come in looking for a takedown, and that will turn the tide of this fight.

He’s a gamer that’s tough to submit, and the best knockout artist Steenis has ever faced. Training footage of Lima looks top notch and the Chute-Box camp has been producing consistent wins at smaller shows in recent months.

Our first upset MMA pick at Bellator 296 is Lima, and the Lima by TKO prop bet could be one of the most confident props when it’s released later in the week. 

The Bet
Douglas Lima

Davy Gallon +160 vs Saul Rogers -200

Bellator 296 favorite Saul Rogers is 2-3 in his last five bouts. He’s been consistent in winning every other fight since 2017, but Gallon is a tough opponent to see that happening with.

After knockouts over Charlie Leary, Ross Pearson and Sydney Machado, Gallon sees a 3-1 Bellator run that punctuates a 12-year MMA career.

Rogers has only ever lost by decision or submission. With Gallon’s striking focused style, mainly looking for damage done from a distance, it’s tough to see how he’ll make the space required for a finish against the grappling and ground striking approach from Rogers.

The Bet
Saul Rogers

Jose Augusto +125 vs Simon Biyong -155

Now 1-2 in Bellator after consecutive knockout losses, Augusto’s wrestling isn’t strong enough to make him a submission threat in Bellator. Biyong is looking for a step up in competition, but this isn’t it.

We see a highlight reel knockout for the Bellator prospects, making the Bellator 296 odds for Biyong a little confusing. A knockout athlete against a fighter who’s been starched twice in the last 10 months?

This should be a stronger than -155 favorite. Biyong’s only submission loss was in 2018, and it’s no longer a concern of his skillset.

The Bet
Simon Biyong

Gregory Babene -150 vs Kyle Stewart +120

Stewart has seen a rough five fight run, losing three times including his most recent with Lorenz Larkin by KO a year ago. Babene is on a seven-fight winning streak, finishing each fight and six in the first round.

Babene struggled with submission fighters in the past, but only ones that could wrestle. Stewart isn’t on Babene’s athletic level and will struggle to find the takedown.

For that, we see another Babene win. Couple this with the Under 2.5 rounds prop released later in the week for a double-up parlay on one fight.

The Bet
Gregory Babene

Chris Gonzalez -280 vs Tim Wilde +220

The underdog is on a three-fight winning streak, featuring three decisions over tough fighters. At 8-2 out of Team Alpha Male, Gonzalez has taken the biggest challenges available to him, losing to Usman Nurmagomedov and Goiti Yamauchi.

This is an opportunity for Gonzalez to show another knockout finish at the Bellator level. Wilde has been finished twice by knockout, and his submission work is slightly better overall than his opponent. We should see a sprawl and brawl performance from Gonzalez, which will earn him the victory.

The Bet
Chris Gonzalez

Bourama Camara -260 vs Romain Debienne +200

Camara is a young prospect with all kinds of finishing power. He lost in his last Bellator fight and it’s not getting any easier for him. Debienne has evolved since the majority of his career losses in 2017-2018. He’s 7-1 in his last eight, including five TKO wins.

Later in the week, the Under 2.5 rounds is the right choice to make for this fight. For now, we’ll take the upset victory with Debienne scoring a finish. Camara hasn’t faced anyone with this kind of aggression.

The Bet
Romain Debienne

Luca Poclit +140 vs Oliver Enkamp -170

Leading the prelims, is former UFC prospect Oliver Enkamp. He’s 4-1 since moving to Bellator and Poclit is his toughest test to date. Poclit was the EFC champion and, after losing his debut in 2012, he’s looked unstoppable.

Enkamp has struggled with knockout power, but this fight looks like it will be more of a submission attempt spree. We think Poclit has underrated grappling and will get the win over a prized ex-UFC athlete.

The Bet
Luca Poclit

Denise Kielholtz -270 vs Paula Cristina +210

Kielholtz hasn’t won an MMA fight since 2020. Her kickboxing debut last year went her way in a controversial decision and she now faces the 8-1 Cristina in her Bellator debut.

Cristina has a few knockouts to her name, but no wins over known fighters. Kielholtz is on another level competitively and should take the decision.

The Bet
Denise Kielholtz

Nicolo Solli -118 vs Steven Hill -112

The Bellator 296 odds have this booked as the most competitive fight on the card, and they may be right. Losing only to George Hardwick, Solli is a finishing machine. Hill has never been defeated, but he hasn’t really fought anyone at all. Even his most recent Bellator opponent (7-9) was a warm up fighter.

We’re betting Solli for consistency and dealing with better talent overall.

The Bet
Nicolo Solli

Aridane Romero Rodriguez +350 vs Fabacary Diatta -450

Diatta is one of the strongest favorites on the card, but his decision loss to Jordan Barton raises questions about the quality of his eight pro wins, including three opponents with losing records and one who was debuting.

Rodriguez is 8-2, with wins over undefeated fighters and a 7-4 fighter back in 2016. However, his recent run-ins against better athletes have been a problem. We think a small wager on Rodriguez is more valuable than Diatta’s return on -450.

The Bet
Aridane Romero Rodriguez

Asael Adjoudj -400 vs Georges Sasu +300 

The 5-1 Adjoudj is -400 for a reason. Out of SBG Ireland, he’s a well-rounded fighter that continues to evolve with each bout. Sasu is 4-2 out of Paris. He’s a submission fighter that can’t wrestle, so there is a clear upper limit to the type of opponent he can get the win over.

Bet the Asael TKO prop bet later in the week.

The Bet
Asael Adjoudj

Brett Johns +350 vs Marcirley Alves -450

A knockout artist to the core, Alves lost his only fights by submission or decision. He’s facing submission wrestler Brett Johns.

We feel this could be a more even fight. Johns has never been knocked out in 22 appearances. His only losses include Danny Sabatello, Pedro Munhoz and Aljamain Sterling.

We see an upset for a wildly underrated Johns.

The Bet
Brett Johns

Kevin Petshi +500 vs Sarvarjon Kahmidov -700

The strongest favorite on the card is the 14-0 Kahmidov. We’re expecting big things from this 26-year-old phenom, and he’s an easy pick for our most confident Bellator 296 prediction. His opponent Kevin Petshi is 18-5, but struggles with his chin and with high quality submission wrestling.

The Bet
Sarvarjon Kahmidov

Piotr Niedzielski  -135 vs Yves Landu +105

Kicking off the card is an incredibly exciting fight between 18-9 Landu and former Babilon MMA contender Niedzielski. Piotr has seen consecutive split decisions at Bellator, which tells us he’s not ready to compete at a level much higher than he already has.

Landu is dangerous everywhere and only loses to top five fighters at the biggest promotions.

The Bet
Yves Landu

Bellator 296: Room for Multiple Upset Wins

Landu, Rodriguez, Lima and Poclit stand out as four fighters who could easily flip the script on their Bellator 296 odds. Each fighter has a clear path to victory, and a favorite opponent with clear weaknesses.

Treat these upsets like value bets, with moderate wagers across the board. Johns feels like the anomaly, where we’d be interested in placing a larger bet on the submission fighter who’s never been knocked out against the KO artist who gets submitted often.

About the Author
Jacob Clark profile picture
Jacob Clark
Sports/Casino Writer
Blog and News
Jacob Clark had a 15-year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, one of TikTok’s most important BJJ influencers, Jacob is bringing his fight sports and betting knowledge to you here at The Sports Geek. When not writing insightful fight sports content, Jacob can be found teaching jiu-jitsu seminars all over Indiana and surrounding states.

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