Baylor Bears vs. Air Force Falcons Pick – Armed Forces Bowl December 22, 2022

The Baylor Bears and Air Force Falcons earned a trip to the Armed Forces Bowl at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth. This bowl game is not exactly what Baylor had in mind at the start of the season. We have our Baylor vs. Air Force predictions and Armed Forces Bowl best bets for Thursday night.

The Bears had loftier expectations than the Armed Forces Bowl. While they had some good moments, like beating Oklahoma on November 5, Baylor ended the season on a three-game losing streak. In their latest effort, Baylor came up 11 points short in a 38-27 loss to Texas.


They did put together a complete attempt in a close call against a College Football Playoff team. Baylor were a point away from giving TCU their first loss of the season on November 19. However, on a last-second field goal, the Horned Frogs picked up a 29-28 win.

That was at least a much better game for Baylor than their previous outing. The Bears were chased off the field in a 31-3 loss at home versus Kansas State. After becoming bowl eligible with the win against Oklahoma, Baylor lost their three remaining games to finish 6-6.

Air Force is the best and only military academy to reach a bowl game this season. The Falcons are on a four-game winning streak going into the Armed Forces Bowl. Following a dominant performance in a 13-3 win over San Diego State, the Falcons will look to impress against a Power Five opponent.

Head below for our Baylor vs. Air Force betting pick and Armed Forces Bowl predictions on December 22, 2022.

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Baylor Bears vs. Air Force Falcons Armed Forces Bowl Live Betting Odds:

Baylor vs Air Force Odds Courtesy of Bovada:
Baylor Bears-4 (-110)-185Over 43 (-115)
Air Force Falcons+4 (-110)+160Under 43 (-105)
Team DataBaylor BearsAir Force Falcons
Overall Record6-69-3
ATS Record7-5-06-6-0
Yards Per Game429.3403.1
Yards Against Per Game370.3255.4
Passing Yards Per Game235.167.8
Rushing Yards Per Game194.3335.3

Baylor vs. Air Force Predictions

Motivation is an important variable when betting on college bowl games. Some games are easier than others to handicap motivation. How much interest do we think Baylor is going to have in the Armed Forces Bowl?

It is unlikely that Baylor is going to be pleased to be in Fort Worth playing against Air Force. They had high aspirations in the Big 12 this season. The Bears believed that it was going to be a year where they could win the conference championship.

While Baylor looked like a contender in the Big 12 at times, nothing was able to click well enough consistently. As a consolation prize this season, Baylor gets to prepare for a triple-option offense in the Armed Forces Bowl.

Baylor Need To Do Their Homework…

If Baylor has success, it is because they worked hard in their preparations for the Falcons. It is not easy to prep for this Air Force triple-option offense. Air Force is really good at what they do best.

The Falcons are listed as the top rushing offense in the country. They have been running the ball down the throat of defenses this season. Going into the Armed Forces Bowl, Air Force has averaged 335.3 rushing yards per game.


Baylor has not seen a triple-option offense this season. This is the best triple-option in football that they’re going to see on Thursday night. Baylor has a solid defense, but it does not matter if they are not well-prepared.

The Bears are 60th on defense, with an average of 370.3 yards allowed per game. They’ve been decent against the run. Baylor has conceded 137.6 yards per game on the ground.

…That Includes The Offense

Baylor has to deal with a very talented defense in this spot, as well. They may not be the best defense, but statistically, on paper, the Falcons are leading the nation. The Falcons are first in total team defense and first against the pass.

Air Force has a lockdown secondary and should do well against a mediocre Baylor passing offense. Entering the Armed Forces Bowl, the Falcons have allowed 155 passing yards per contest. They’ve been strong versus the run, too, with 100.4 rushing yards for eighth.

This has equated to 13.3 points allowed per game. Air Force has given up fewer than 13 points in four straight outings going into Thursday night. Baylor is 32nd in the FBS, with an average of 33.6 points scored per game.

Baylor vs. Air Force Betting Pick:

It is hard to see Baylor amped up to play in this game. For them to have success, a lot of hard work has to go into preparing for the triple-option and the Air Force defense. If Baylor did that they are in a good position.

However, I do not have much confidence in Baylor putting in the required prep work to pull away from Air Force. Note that the military academies have gone 10-3 against the spread in their previous 13 bowl games. They tend to find motivation in bowls.


The Falcons are likely looking forward to matching up with a Big 12 foe in the Armed Forces Bowl. There is probably something they would like to prove against Baylor. Expect a tight game that goes down to the final minutes.

For our Baylor vs. Air Force prediction, we’re looking at a 21-18 final score. Air Force plus the points looks like the best bet for the Armed Forces Bowl.


Baylor vs. Air Force Best Bet
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Kyle Eve
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Kyle Eve is a seasoned pro of The Sports Geek. Since joining the team in 2012, Kyle, has covered some of the biggest sporting events in the world. From the Super Bowl and World Series to March Madness, the NBA Finals, Kentucky Derby, and many more, Kyle has provided reliable analysis for millions of readers. After dedicating himself to hockey and football in high school, Kyle placed his first sports bet on his 18th birthday. Since then, he has spent his entire adult life devoting himself to becoming the best sports bettor and casino gambler possible. Kyle is from Windsor, ON, Canada

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