UFC Fight Pass is back with eleven fights from Cage Fury Fighting Championships. The CFFC 116 odds from Bovada feature only money lines, but you can make our prop predictions on some of the other UFC betting sites we’ve vetted for safety and security. Bet before December 16th, 2022 at 7:00 AM ET.
CFFC 116 Predictions
Our top CFFC prediction for parlay wins include Mat Caracappa at -325 and Bill Markle at -405. Both have massive winning streaks in their career, and have taken significant time to redevelop their game after any losses. For the top value bet, look to Eric Nolan at -275. He’s facing a 7-8 fighter, and there is a massive gap in their jiu jitsu experience.
CFFC 116 Underdog Picks
Our upset pick is Billy Ray Valdez at +500. This guy has losses, and is still developing a grappling game; but his power is undeniable and his striking accuracy difficult to train for. Douma at +190 is an easy second pick, if you feel the -900 odds are too much to go up against.
CFFC 116 Odds
This full card breakdown includes the key stats and fight tape analysis we used to make our top picks.
Sit down in-person interview with Eddy Torres drops tomorrow ahead of his main event fight next week at #CFFC116 😤👊🏻 pic.twitter.com/USEQBUgKGe
— Jake Noecker (@JakeNoeckerMMA) December 1, 2022
Eddy Torres -300 vs Tyler Mathison +220
The 4-0 Torres had a 3-0 amateur run as well, but at 36 we’re skeptical of his long term career in the sport. Mathison, out of Start BJJ in Minnesota, is 3-2 and struggles in decision bouts with quality athletes like LeVille Simpson. Torres should take the win, unless Mathison has made major changes to his cage wrestling and conditioning.
Chris Vasil +285 vs Frank Wells -425
Wells is a strong favorite, but coming off a RNC loss to Jose Perez in August. The biggest issue for a bet on Chris Vasil is his chin. He’s been knocked out twice in four years, and is primarily a knockout striker with defensive BJJ. This is any man’s fight, and for that we’re betting the Vasil underdog money line/ Wells is yet to face a fighter with this many knockouts, so it will be interesting to see how he handles his power.
Derrick Ageday +200 vs Eric Nolan -275
With five finishes in a short pro-am career, Nolan is a danger to Ageday. Ageday is 32 with a 7-8 record. He’s been finished seven times in his six year career, and Nolan should find the submission or decision win with relative ease.
Billy Ray Valdez +500 vs Ian Allston -900
Valdez is a knockout artist with one goal in mind, put you to sleep. Allston has never been knocked out, but he’s also never faced a knockout artist with more than one finish. The 3-2 Valdez has two knockouts as a pro and a recent submission finish. The odds may also be skewed because Valdez amateur stats aren’t on Tapology, but we have some inside knowledge that he was 4-2 as an amateur ranging back to 2015. Our CFFC 116 underdog prediction has a five times return.
Bilal Hasan +220 vs Xhelal Lleshi -300
The undefeated Lleshi is a Dante Rivera prospect who’s athletic ability carried him through four decisions. He’s a well rounded fighter, with no obvious weaknesses. Hasan is 6-0 with three stoppages, each against lower level fighters. We see this as one of the best fights of the night. It’s the first real test for either man, and bettors should beware a match this competitive. Bet the over if you find one, or steer clear.
Greg Fischer -285 vs Ricardo Fuentes +210
Fuentes is a submission specialist with few challenges in his 14 fight pro-am career. With three submissions as a pro, he’s a danger to Fischer. Yes, Fischer is a submission guy as well, but his loss to Jimmy Flick revealed some serious weaknesses in his game. We’re tentatively betting the underdog. Keep it within your budget, and expect a Ricardo Fuentes flashy submission.
Damion Nelson +140 vs Thomas Picciano -185
At the famous Longo and Weidman MMA, Nelson is training with multiple UFC athletes. Thomas is training at Long Island MMA, their direct competitor. This is a grudge match, and both men have the power to make it an early night. Picciano gets our pick, with five knockout finishes in nine fights.
John Douma +190 vs Vilson Ndregjoni -260
The CFFC 116 odds for Ndrgjoni see him as a bigger challenge than he is. Douma has losses to high level fighters like Journel Lugo and the dangerous Adam Acquaviva. Ndregjoni can’t really finish fights, and is a decision fighter to the core. Douma has counter submission work that is the bane of someone like Vilson, and we see a finish and an underdog win.
Kyle Kahler +230 vs Mat Caracappa -325
Caracappa was an undefeated amateur with five finishes before going pro and losing a split decision in 2019. His opponent Kahler had a less consistent amateur career, but is equally dangerous with a 57% finishing rate and seven finishes. Caracappa should take the win, as he’s been silently improving his BJJ and wrestling game for three years, ready to go on another six fight winning streak.
Bill Markle -450 vs Hector Iglesias +300
Markle is on a six fight winning streak. He took four years off after his first amateur loss to recreate himself. This guy isn’t interested in taking risks, and will select fights he knows he can win. Hector is a great kickboxer, but struggles with power punchers and with conditioning. Against the grappling of Markle, we see Iglesias in bottom position for most of the fight.
Keith Speed +300 vs Mark Grey -450
With two pro knockouts, Grey seems like a shoe in for a parlay pick. We’re tentative, because Keith speed is a dangerous finisher who’s racked up ten fights in five years. Speed is 5-5, with four wins by submission or knockout, and another six amateur finishes since 2013. We’re putting a light bet on the underdog, because Grey has never faced someone with this many finishes and this wild of a style.
Cage Fury Fighting Championships Night of Upsets
CFFC 116 betting odds represent seven seemingly one sided bouts, but we think at least three of them are ending in upsets. Many of these favorites are yet to face and control dangerous finishers, and when a fighter has punching power it’s difficult not to take prop bets. Since CFFC 116 odds are money line only, you’re better off with multiple light bets on the underdog than trying to bet big on a glass cannon favorite.
