2023 NFL Black Friday Game Odds and Predictions

2023 NFL Black Friday

In the first-ever NFL Black Friday Game, the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets collide at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

On paper, the Dolphins are the vastly superior team. However, can a new starting quarterback jumpstart the Jets’ offense?

Let’s take a closer look at the Black Friday odds, courtesy of the best NFL betting sites, and make our NFL Black Friday predictions for this AFC East divisional battle.

Who Plays On Black Friday?

  • NFL Black Friday Matchup: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
  • NFL Black Friday Game Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
  • NFL Black Friday Game Channel: Amazon Prime Video

As part of Amazon’s Black Friday marketing campaign, the company has acquired the rights to an NFL game on Black Friday. Therefore, the Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Black Friday NFL matchup can only be watched on Amazon Prime Video.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. EST at MetLife Stadium. Game day events and festivities are scheduled to begin at 1:30 p.m. EST1.

NFL Black Friday Game Odds

The following Black Friday NFL Game odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Miami Dolphins-10 (-105)-450Over 40.5 (-110)
New York Jets+10 (-115)+335Under 40.5 (-110)

The Dolphins opened as -7.5 point favorites to beat the Jets. On the news that Zach Wilson was benched in favor of Tim Boyle, the point spread rose to -9.5, and is currently -10 at Bovada.

Is Wilson really worth roughly three points versus Boyle? We can safely assume that Boyle has the talent to at least run onto the field without tripping over himself.

If you want to select the Dolphins to win outright, it will come at a heavy cost at the best football betting sites. With a -450 moneyline bet, you will have to risk $450 to win $100. That doesn’t constitute the best NFL Black Friday value. We’re sure that Amazon will have better deals than this.

Black Friday Dolphins vs. Jets Predictions

The Jets are heading in another direction after Wilson bombed against the Buffalo Bills in Week 11. Wilson connected on 7-for-15 passes, with just 81 yards through the air in the 32-6 loss. He threw a touchdown, but also made multiple mistakes, including a critical interception2.

In 10 games, Wilson has completed 59.2 percent of his passes for 1,944 yards, six touchdowns, and seven interceptions3. Wilson led the Jets to 270.3 yards per game, which is good for 30th in the NFL4. With this in mind, it can’t get any worse with Boyle starting for the Jets.

So, how did the Jets get to a record of 4-6? Despite the offensive issues, the Jets are in a position to make a run at the playoffs. Head coach Robert Saleh can thank his defense for keeping this season afloat.

The Jets have an abundance of talent defensively. From the front seven to the secondary, the Jets have the personnel to bother the Dolphins’ playmakers. Are they going to completely shut Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle down?

Unlikely, but the Jets’ secondary has the talent to disrupt their route-running and throw off Tua Tagovailoa’s rhythm. Over the last two weeks, the Dolphins’ offense has not been operating at full speed.

The Dolphins dropped a 21-14 game to the Kansas City Chiefs in Germany and then responded with 20 points in a 20-13 win against an inferior Las Vegas team. This likely isn’t the best “get right” spot for Tagovailoa and company.

Through Week 11, the Jets’ secondary is the fifth-best unit in the NFL. They’ve yielded 178.7 yards per game, with a Top 5 ranking entering the NFL Black Friday Game. As long as Boyle avoids multiple turnovers, the Jets should be competitive.

This isn’t just about benching Wilson. Saleh is sending a message to the rest of his team. After a humiliating 32-6 loss, pride has to kick in for the Jets. Winning outright is a tall order, but the spread looks a touch too inflated at -10.

The Bet

Black Friday NFL Game Prop Bets

We have you covered for the NFL Black Friday Game with our best Dolphins vs. Jets prop bets:

Total Touchdowns

Over 4.5-105
Under 4.5-125

The Dolphins are accustomed to scoring touchdowns in bunches. The Jets? Not so much. The Jets rank dead last in the NFL, with an average of 1.1 touchdowns per game. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have the most touchdowns in the NFL, with an average of four trips to paydirt per game5.

Certainly, the 70 points they scored against the Broncos earlier in the season skew those numbers, but this is very much a dangerous offense. As we said, though, the Jets’ secondary has the potential to frustrate the Dolphins.

We are not backing the Jets to cover because they are going to light the scoreboard up on Black Friday. Rather, the Jets’ defense can force the Dolphins off course in a rare Friday afternoon game. Expect four total touchdowns to keep this prop Under the total.

The Bet

New York Jets Total Field Goals

Over 1.5+125
Under 1.5-160

The Jets’ Black Friday field goal prop bet stands out as a top wager for Friday afternoon. Are you confident two or three Jets’ offensive drives will bog down in the Dolphins’ territory? If so, this prop bet should be on your list of NFL Black Friday bets.

It’s entirely realistic to believe that Greg Zuerlein trots out on the field a few times in this game. The Jets can’t afford to go down the field and come away with no points. The offense needs to generate some kind of confidence.

As a result, Zuerlein should have more than one opportunity to tack three points onto the scoreboard. At +125, there is great value on the Jets kicking more than one field goal.

The Bet
OVER 1.5

Raheem Mostert Anytime Touchdown


Raheem Mostert is having the best season of his 10-year NFL career. Mostert has already smashed through his career-high in touchdowns. His previous high was 10 all-purpose touchdowns as a member of the San Francisco 49ers in 2019.

Currently, Mostert has scored 11 rushing and twice through the air as a receiver. It’s only Week 12, so Mostert has plenty of time to add to his totals. At this pace, he should break his career-high in rushing yards, too.

Going into Black Friday, Mostert has gained 691 yards on 5.3 yards per carry6. We are more concerned with Mostert’s touchdown scoring in Week 12, though.

With the Dolphins’ No. 2 running back, De’Von Achane, possibly sidelined or limited with an injury, this game is going to be Mostert’s in the backfield. Even with Achane, Mostert has been a touchdown machine, with five scores in his last six games.

The Bet

Breece Hall Total Receptions

Over 3.5-115
Under 3.5-115

Short dump-offs to safety valves are a hallmark of inexperienced QBs. When in doubt, take the short pass and don’t force the ball downfield. That is likely what Saleh wants to see out of Boyle.

Boyle is not going to dot the secondary with precision passes for four quarters. However, if he is smart, taking what the defense gives him underneath will be one of his best options.

Running back Breece Hall will be one of the beneficiaries out of the backfield. Hall has been a valuable pass-catching running back for the Jets. The 22-year-old has reeled in 31 receptions for 296 yards as a receiver.

Since October 15, Wilson has targeted Hall 27 times in the last five games. He caught 23 receptions for an average of 4.6 per game. Expect to see Boyle look Hall’s way often on Friday afternoon.

The Bet
OVER 3.5

Tim Boyle Total Passing Yards

Over 159.5-115
Under 159.5-115

The top online betting sites do not have any confidence in Boyle. Currently, at Bovada, Boyle’s passing yards prop bet is at 159.5 yards.

The Jets will have to throw the ball at some point in this game. They can’t hand the ball off to Hall, who has had issues finding running lanes on the ground.

This season, the Dolphins have conceded 220.6 passing yards per game. They are ranked 14th in the NFL against the pass7.

The former Packer has appeared in 18 regular season games in his career. He isn’t going into the NFL Black Friday Game blind. In 2021, Boyle passed for 526 yards in five games with the Lions8.

Boyle isn’t torching the Dolphins’ secondary. He may not even reach 200 yards, but a minimum of 170 passing yards is realistic for the fifth-year QB.

The Bet
OVER 159.5

Best NFL Black Friday Bets

Just like finding the best sales, here’s our picks for the best NFL Black Friday Game bets:

New York Jets (+10)

As the line grows, the more value there is on the Jets. At 10 or 9 points, the Jets are worth playing on Black Friday. We aren’t advising that the Jets are a lock, but there is little value in laying this many points on a Dolphins team on the road.

There is a decent enough chance that the Dolphins overlook the Jets during the holidays. If that happens, the Jets might even have an opportunity to steal a win if that’s the case.

The Jets can lean on their defense to afford Boyle excellent field position to work with at MetLife Stadium. It’s up to Boyle to do the rest, but the Jets can play the field position game due to their defense.

Expect the Dolphins to be one of the most public plays of the week. However, benching Wilson may provide the Jets with a jolt of confidence. We are fading the public and siding with the sportsbooks on the Jets to cover +10 points.

The Bet

Breece Hall Total Receptions

Hall is likely to be one of Boyle’s favorite targets on Friday. Not only is he a reliable pass catcher, but Hall can turn a short reception into a big gain. Instead of gambling downfield, Hall is going to be the recipient of several targets from his QB.

According to our calculations, we have Hall finishing with five receptions against the Dolphins. That puts Hall comfortably Over 3.5 receptions for the Black Friday NFL Game.

The Bet
OVER 3.5
  1. Black Friday NFL Game on Prime Video: Dolphins vs Jets | Amazon. Retrieved From “https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/entertainment/nfl-black-friday-game-2023/

  2. New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Box Score, Summary, and Team Stats | CBS Sports. Retrieved From “https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/gametracker/boxscore/NFL_20231119_NYJ@BUF/

  3. Zach Wilson 2023 Stats per Game – NFL | ESPN. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/4361259/zach-wilson

  4. NFL Football Stats – NFL Team Yards per Game | TeamRankings.com. Retrieved From “https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-game

  5. NFL Football Stats – NFL Team Touchdowns per Game | TeamRankings.com. Retrieved From “https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/touchdowns-per-game

  6. Raheem Mostert Career Stats – NFL | ESPN. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/2576414/raheem-mostert

  7. NFL Football Stats – NFL Team Opponent Passing Yards per Game | TeamRankings.com. Retrieved From “https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-passing-yards-per-game

  8. Tim Boyle Career Stats – NFL | ESPN. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/3045169/tim-boyle

About the Author
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Kyle Eve
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Kyle Eve is a seasoned pro of The Sports Geek. Since joining the team in 2012, Kyle, has covered some of the biggest sporting events in the world. From the Super Bowl and World Series to March Madness, the NBA Finals, Kentucky Derby, and many more, Kyle has provided reliable analysis for millions of readers. After dedicating himself to hockey and football in high school, Kyle placed his first sports bet on his 18th birthday. Since then, he has spent his entire adult life devoting himself to becoming the best sports bettor and casino gambler possible. Kyle is from Windsor, ON, Canada

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