Sinner vs. Alcaraz Odds and Prediction: US Open 2025 Final Preview

The 2025 US Open Final will add another chapter to the Sinner vs. Alcaraz rivalry, with the betting odds suggesting another epic clash. There’s no clear favorite, and both players will be eager to add another Grand Slam to their resumes.

Can Alcaraz avenge his loss at the Wimbledon final earlier this year, or will Sinner capitalize on his insane form? Let’s explore the latest US Open Final odds and how both players reached this match before I share my prediction and betting pick.

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Betting Odds (2025 US Open Final)

Here are the US Open Final odds for the clash between Alcaraz and Sinner, courtesy of Lucky Rebel:

Sinner is a slight favorite in the betting odds, but the clash is essentially a coin flip. The total games line is very telling, with the best tennis betting sites expecting at least four very competitive sets.

If you’re looking for more markets, Lucky Rebel offers props and alternative lines, so check them out by going to Sports >Tennis > US Open Men.

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Sinner vs. Alcaraz H2H Analysis

Despite their young age, Sinner and Alcaraz have already met 14 times! The Spaniard has nine victories to his rival’s five. Alcaraz has won six of the last seven meetings, but the exception was this year’s Wimbledon final.

If we only include encounters on hard courts, Alcaraz is again ahead by 6-3 against his rival. This includes their only meeting at the US Open before. The Spanish prodigy won an insane five-setter back in 2022, so history is on his side, no matter how you look at it.

Can Alcaraz add another high-profile victory to the H2H stats, though, or will Sinner win another Grand Slam final against his rival in 2025? Let’s talk about recent form before I share my Alcaraz vs. Sinner prediction for the US Open Final.

Sinner’s Run to the US Open Final: Mostly Great, but Where Is His First Serve?

Sinner completely demolished most of his opponents on the road to the US Open 2025 Final. His most devastating victories included matches against ranked opponents like Lorenzo Musetti (6-1; 6-4; 6-2) and Alexander Bublik (6-1; 6-1; 6-1).

The world number 1 looked unstoppable in these encounters, but also had a couple of shaky moments in the tournament. In the third round, Sinner was in trouble against Shapovalov and needed over three hours and four sets to win. It was a similar story against Auger-Aliassime in the semifinals.

Overall, Sinner only has one match where his first serve percentage was above 60%. He was able to overcome that issue against lesser opponents, but beating Alcaraz with an inconsistent first serve will be tough.

The Spaniard will surely take full advantage if Sinner plays on his second serve often, which is why I fear for the Italian a bit.

Alcaraz’ Run to the US Open Final: Perfection so Far

Carlos Alcaraz looked slightly shaky in his opening US Open match, but a couple of weeks later, he is in the final without losing a single set!

The Spaniard has been very close to his best, playing with aggression and confidence. This was evident in his semifinal against Novak Djokovic, with the Serbian looking discouraged after losing in straight sets against the world number 2.

The Spaniard looked amazing in every important moment of this match, so he looks ready to win another major title.

Furthermore, Alcaraz has only spent 12 hours on the court in total so far in the US Open, thanks to winning all matches in straight sets. He should be fresh and ready for Sinner.

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction and Betting Pick

In the Wimbledon final a few months ago, I backed Jannik Sinner to beat Alcaraz because he looked stronger on the road to the final and was a slight underdog. Ironically, it’s the other way around in the US Open.

Alcaraz has been more consistent, especially with his first serve, and you can back him at plus odds. That’s more than enough for me to pick the Spaniard with my 2025 US Open Final prediction.