UFC 283 Odds, Picks and Best Fights to Bet On

UFC 283 Odds and Predictions

It’s a two title card this weekend, and UFC 283 odds are already stacked with parlay picks and high paying value bets. There are two fights with both fighters in the -105 range, and two fighters sitting at even. It’s going to be an exciting night of fights, and we already see a fantastic UFC 283 parlay forming involving multiple one sided bouts.

UFC 283 Predictions

Here are our top picks, currently available at Bovada and other UFC betting sites.

  • Jamahal Hill Money Line -121
  • Figueredo vs Moreno: Over 2.5 -275
  • Gilbert Burns Money Line -400
  • Jessica Andrade Money Line -525
  • Walker vs Craig: Fight Goes to Decision, No
  • Ihor Potieria Money Line-220
  • Jailton Almeida Money Line -1100
  • McKinney vs Bonfim: Under 1.5 -220
  • Luan Luiz Lacerda Money Line +255
  • Josiane Nunes Money Line -525
  • Nicolas Dalby Money Line +100
  • Daniel Marcos Money Line+139

Our UFC 283 betting odds are focused primarily on strong favorites with only three underdogs predicted, each with a better record than their opponent.

UFC 283 Best Fights to Bet On

Our parlay picks include Nunes, Almeida and the Over 2.5 rounds for Figueredo vs Moreno. The other’s are value bets, aside from the Andrade money line which could go either way.

Deiveson Figueiredo -115 vs Brandon Moreno -108

This is the first time the UFC has seen two fighters face off four times for a title, but after Moreno’s dismantling of #1 contender Kara-France, there isn’t much room for contesting it. Moreno was a generous -200 against Kai, but is a weaker favorite than he was against Figueiredo at UFC 270 (-180.)

Over 2.5 Rounds Looking Strong, Can Figueiredo Finish?

Deiveson hasn’t fought anyone but Moreno since November, 2020. They are now 1-1-1. Their last fight was a five round decision and the only finish was Deiveson winning by RNC deep into round three. We see this fight clearing 2:30 of round 3 for several reasons, but Figueiredo now being 35 is one of them. Moreno is just coming into his prime at 29 years old, and has only been finished once in his career. We expect this fight to near the distance, but the -275 over 2.5 rounds is worth adding to a parlay.

Gilbert Burns -400 vs Neil Magny +305

Magny is at risk of being considered a gatekeeper if he loses to Burns. At -110 over Rodriguez, the third round finish November, 2022 felt like an underwhelming performance. Magny has morphed into a decision fighter, while Burns proved he’s a top five competitor against Chimaev. Sportsbooks already see this one as a decision, with the Over 2.5 sitting at -135.

Burns to Display Grappling at UFC 283

Magny’s striking is moderate, landing 3.62 significant strikes per minute. We believe Burns would love to strike with Magny, but will look to the Skavkat bout to see weaknesses in Magny’s grappling defense. We’re not excited about the over prop, but will treat Burns money line like a 1:4 return value bet.

Jessica Andrade -525 vs Lauren Murphy +365

Murphy’s +180 win over Tate shocked us back in July. She takes yet another step up in competition to face Andrade. Now 3-3 over her last six bouts, Andrade has only lost to Rose, Zhang, Jedrzejczyk and Shevchenko since her Pennington bout in 2015. Andrade has been incredibly active, and her win over Lemos via standing arm triangle reminded us just how far the gap can be between top five and top fifteen contenders.

Parlay Andrade, Look at Her Submission Prop Bet

Odds haven’t dropped for an Andrade submission win, but it’s looking good. She has three subs in the UFC, and while Murphy hasn’t been submitted, she shows weaknesses in the clench and bottom position that we can see Andrade advantaging. Murphy is a good fighter, but none of her last ten opponents have been on Andrade’s level; aside from her two losses to Valentina and Chookagian.

Ihor Potieria -220 vs Mauricio Rua +175

Losing two of his last three bouts, Rua is 42 facing a 26 year old athlete. Potieria is 1-1 in UFC and DWCS, and has produced an aggressive style in his opening bouts, winning by knockout at 3:41. This is a bet on Rua’s jaw and Potieria’s takedown defense. Rua’s last knockout was 2018 to the grounded Tyson Pedro, and Ihor’s 33% takedown defense could make this tough to judge.

Potieria by TKO

Later in the week, we’ll be looking at the Potieria by TKO prop bet, likely close to +100 or -110. As Rua ages, he’ll be more and more susceptible to finishes. His loss to OSP- who was 40 years old at the time- was a brutal fight for him, and we don’t know that seven months older he’ll do any better against Ihor.

Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira

‘Robocop’ Rodrigues is now 4-2 in the UFC with three knockouts. Ferreira is 9-0 coming off a DWCS knockout in 95 seconds. We have a fireworks matchup that doesn’t have any odds yet. Looking at the Ferreira fight tape we see 9 finishes, and only two fights go to the second round. While the odds haven’t been released yet, we’ll be waiting for Wednesday and betting the under 2.5 rounds prop and ‘Fight Goes to Decision, No’ prop bet. This is a fight worth tacking onto a parlay, even if you’re only adding it to the Almeida win.

Jailton Almeida -1100 vs Shamil Abdurakhimov +600

Shamil is on a brutal three fight losing streak in the UFC, getting knocked out by Daukaus, Pavlovich and Blaydes since 2019. The UFC isn’t making it any easier on the 41 year old, pitting him against Almeida, a 4-0 UFC fight finisher with a .43 strike absorption per minute rate. This is the most one sided bout of this card and of the weekend in all of MMA.

How to Bet Almeida vs Abdurakhimov

Jailton has been knocked out before, stopped by Tyago Moreira in 2017, so the ‘No decision’ prop bet will be the better bet if you’re playing it safe. We expect this fight to be close to a -1300 no decision or under prop bet. If it’s lower than the Almeida money line, it may be worth taking. Shamil’s last decision was against Arlovski and Walt Harris, both fights that were purposefully dragged out by aging tacticians.

Glover Teixeira -105 vs Jamahal Hill -121

Our main event will be for the UFC Light Heavyweight championship. Glover lost his title to Jiri in an upset choke in the fifth, but the fight was far more competitive than anyone could have predicted. Glover’s six fight winning streak leading up to the bout ranged from -120 to +245. Hill’s one loss was to Paul Craig, via submission and strikes TKO in a brutal triangle. His five UFC knockouts have been against fighters who want to stand, aside from Thiago Santos in their August bout. We’ll go into greater detail, breaking down all 19 betting markets on Wednesday, but since Hill has never seen the fifth round, Glover will either look for a late submission or get finished trying. At 44, Glover’s chin has to give up someday. We’re looking at the ‘Fight Goes to Decision, No’ prop bet or a Hill win at -121.

Josiane Nunes -525 vs Zarah Fairn Dos Santos +365

Nunes is now 2-0 in the UFC and 9-1 in her short career. Dos Santos is 0-2 in the UFC and 6-4 overall. This is a record padding fight, one that is hoping to see Nunes smash Santos in highlight fashion. We don’t see a clear method to victory for Santos, and she’s outmatched in all aspects. Parlay the money line, or bet the Nunes KO prop when it’s released. This money line could move closer to -1000 by Saturday.

UFC 283 Betting Odds for Upsets

Our big upset is Lacerda, but the Dalby and Marcos money lines are fantastic. If you parlay these three upsets, you’re looking at a +1453 bet, a $1453 return on $100.

Nicolas Dalby +100 vs Warlley Alves -120

Alves is 4-5 in his last nine UFC appearances, including three losses via finish. Dalby is a mixed bag, but 3-1 over his last four fights, aside from the Jesse Ronson no contest. Alves hasn’t seen a decision since 2017, and Dalby hasn’t seen a finish inside the UFC. As far as tough fights to call, this is our most contested of the UFC 283 odds. We’re tentatively betting Dalby because of Alves’ slowly fading performance and 18 month lay off.

Cody Stamann -335 vs Luan Luiz Lacerda +255

Lacerda is an underdog in his UFC debut. At 12-1, he’s beaten UFC vet Raulian Paiva and bested LFA and Shooto contenders with ease, finishing his last six fights via submission. Stamann was on a three fight losing streak, with a 3-4-1 record since September 2018. His last win over Eddie Wineland was a vicious TKO, but Eddie is 39 years old and in the midst of a brutal TKO losing streak.

Upset of the Night: Lacerda Money Line or Submission

There’s a chance that Stamann is just too much of an athlete, and his 75% takedown defense shines. Lacerda is a handful, and his only loss was back in 2014. He’s a BJJ black belt,with an aggressive forward moving style. We think the unreleased submission prop is a great long shot bet, but the upset is more than enough to get our bet at a 2.5 times return.

Daniel Marcos +139 vs Saimon Oliveira -175

After winning a DWCS split decision, Oliveira was fed to Tony Gravely. It was still a close fight, with Tony clutching a decision win with 11 takedowns. Marcos is a striker with little wrestling on display in his DWCS bout last September. Marcos is undefeated at 13-0, and had an additional 6-0 amateur career. The majority of his opponent’s have been marginal at best, but he knocked out the UFC’s Andres Cordova back in 2016. We’re betting on Marcos to find a way to get the edge on Oliveira.

UFC 283 Risky Bets

There are a couple of tough calls on the card, most notably Bonfim vs McKinney. Spread your money out over your highest confidence bets first, and don’t be afraid to bet the props later in the week on some of UFC 283’s strongest finishers.

Ismael Bonfim +100 vs Terrance McKinney -120

Bonfim is new to the UFC but hasn’t lost a fight since he fought Renato Moicano in 2014. His last three wins have been over quality fighters, and his decision win at DWCS included a knockdown and 5:3 significant strike ratio. We’ve been McKinney fans since his win over Matt Frevola. He hasn’t made it to a decision in DWCS or UFC, losing twice by TKO and winning by finish three times. We feel McKinney will dictate the pace, and the Under 1.5 rounds at -220 is our current best bet. The ‘no decision’ prop released this Thursday on most sites may be a better bet, even if it’s close to -400.

Johnny Walker -185 vs Paul Craig +150

The submission machine Paul Craig seems to either get knocked out or finish the fight. He has no UFC decision wins. Walker is much the same, with only one UFC decision win, and two knockout losses since 2019. Walker’s recent demolition of Ion Cutelaba has boosted his odds, a +175 upset. We haven’t seen Walker at -185 since his bout with Corey Anderson.

Bet the Obvious UFC 283 Odds on Craig vs Walker

Currently the only under bet available is the 1.5 Rounds at -165. We’ll take this position, but we advise you to wait and bet the ‘Fight Goes to Decision, No’ prop bet when it comes out later this week, likely closer to -330. We would look to parlay this UFC 283 prediction along with the Andrade and and Almeida wins.

Gabriel Bonfim-186 vs Mounir Lazzez +153

13-0 Bonfim is an up and comer to fear at welterweight. Lazzez is now 2-1 in the UFC, losing by TKO to Warley Alves in January 2021. Lazzez earned a decision over Ange Loosa in his last bout, a -190 win that offered Ange 88 significant strikes. Bonfim is primarily a submission fighter, with few decisions and KO’s on record. We’re not sure what to expect, but we like the Bonfim money line. This could easily be a submission or decision win, and Bovada will produce the Bonfim Decision or Submission double chance UFC 283 odds around Thursday.

Multiple Parlay Opportunities with UFC 283 Odds

You can bet multiple parlays on your ticket, breaking them up by strings of confidence. The Andrade and Gilbert Burns wins are good enough to put on a parlay of their own, boosting your payout significantly. Keep in mind, you can receive bonuses across multiple betting websites as well; getting the best odds at the right time on each site.

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About the Author
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Jacob Clark
Sports/Casino Writer
Blog and News
Jacob Clark had a 15-year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, one of TikTok’s most important BJJ influencers, Jacob is bringing his fight sports and betting knowledge to you here at The Sports Geek. When not writing insightful fight sports content, Jacob can be found teaching jiu-jitsu seminars all over Indiana and surrounding states.

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