UFC 285 Odds, Picks and Best Fights to Bet On

UFC 285 Jones Vs Gane Odds

On Saturday, March 4, the UFC will be live from the T-Mobile Arena, in Las Vegas, for UFC 285: Jones vs Gane. This PPV event features the return of Jon Jones as he takes on Cyril Gane for the vacant heavyweight belt.

In total, UFC 285 features 14 fights. The top UFC betting sites have odds available for the entire lineup. You can expect more prop bets to be listed as we get closer to fight night.

UFC 285 Predictions

Notice the slew of one-sided fights at UFC 285. This card is ripe for another parlay ticket as there are a handful of moneylines above -500. The following odds are courtesy of Bovada.  

UFC 285 PicksOdds at BovadaConfidence Rating
Jones vs Gane: Over 2.5 Rounds-300 High
Valentina Shevchenko Money Line-675High, Parlay Pick
Shavkat Rakhmonov Money Line-525High, Parlay Pick of the Night
Bo Nickal Money Line-2000High, Parlay Pick
Jalin Turner Money Line+175Moderate- High, Upset Pick of the Night
Cody Garbrandt Money Line-185Moderate, Value Bet
Derek Brunson Money Line+185High
Ribas vs Araujo: Over 2.5 rounds-275Moderate
Julian Marquez Money Line+123Moderate
Ian Garry Money Line-725High, Parlay Pick
Cameron Saaiman Money LIne-310Moderate
Tabatha Ricci Money Line-285Low
Farid Basharat Money Line-525Moderate, Parlay Pick
Esteban Ribovics Money LineTBDHigh
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UFC 285: Jones vs Gane Odds for 3/4/2023

We found only two prop bet picks across this entire fight card, but look for more prop bet opportunities as we move closer to the weekend. The full 17 to 21 betting markets that Bovada usually offers is open for UFC 285 odds.

Ciryl Gane +140 vs Jon Jones -170

In possibly the most anticipated fighter return ever in the UFC, Jones comes back as a favorite after opening as the underdog in UFC futures.

There are two major factors when predicting the Gane vs Jones fight: Gane’s takedown defense and Jones’ ring rust. Jon Jones has been out for three years as of February, and that 37 months away can have a major effect on a fighter.

Returning in another weight class against a champion caliber fighter is no small feat. Gane has never been finished. Additionally, Jones’ last three bouts went the distance, which makes the Over props an interesting bet.

StatsJonesGane
Significant Landed Strikes in Last 3 Decisions288300
Takedowns Given Up in UFC2 (Cormier and Gustaffson)4 (All Francis Ngannou)
Last Weigh In205245

Fans see a finish, so the Over 2.5 rounds (making it to 2:30 of round 3) is at -300. While this bet feels boring, we expect a first round feel out period for Jones, followed by a late game increase in pace from Gane.

We predicted that Gane would win back in January, and we stand by that money line, but the Over is the superior bet given the UFC 285 betting odds.

If you’re brave, the ‘Fight Goes the Distance, Yes’ prop at -125 is increasingly likely, given Gane’s UFC record and Jones dedication to point fighting with age.

The Bet
Over 2.5 Rounds

Alexa Grasso +450 vs Valentina Shevchenko -675

Shevchenko has fought twice a year since 2016, but only once in 2022. She’s coming back with an early title defense after a split decision win over Santos, scoring 77 to 55 in significant strikes.

Grasso is on a four-fight winning streak, but her losses to Esparza and Suarez put her at a major underdog status. She was losing to Joanne Wood prior to a flash submission win late in the round, and was out-pointed in her upset win against Barber.

Shevchenko is going to smash Grasso horribly, and betting the UFC 285 odds for ‘Shevchenko Inside the Distance’ when they’re released on Wednesday is a good idea as a value bet. Bet the Shevchenko money line with Rakhmonov and Nickal as a sure-fire three fight parlay ticket. 

The Bet
Valentina Shevchenko

Geoff Neal +380 vs Shavkat Rakhmonov -525

Rakhmonov’s money line is our UFC 285 odds for parlay pick of the night. Neal lost to Magny definitively in 2021, and Shavkat crushed Magny with impunity. Neal is a fighter who likes to trade, boasting a 5.27 to 5.28 significant strikes landed in his UFC career.

This is a disaster against Shavkat, who’s 1.39 strikes absorbed per minute is half his average landing rate. Look for Shavkat by Submission odds later this week, and take the ‘Fight Goes the Distance, No’ prop bet at -105 if you’re a fan of Geoff Neal.

Neal’s wins over Muhammad and Luque make him formidable, and we could have another Khamzat vs Burns situation, where Rakhmonov is a boogieman that gets shown his limits. We see this as unlikely, and expect a Rakhmonov title fight after a swift finish of the #7 contender.

The Bet
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jalin Turner +175 vs Mateusz Gamrot -220

Gamrot lost his most recent showing against Beneil Dariush and reach was a factor. We had him losing against Arman Tsarukyan, but he rallied and took the fight with control time despite being knocked down. Turner poses some specific challenges, specifically a seven-inch reach advantage and lanky limbs that find submissions off the takedown attempt.

Turner has a history of giving up control time, specifically in his loss to Frevola in 2019, and he was starched by Vicente Luque at welterweight, causing him to drop to 155 pounds.

We agree with the UFC 285 betting odds, the under 2.5 rounds is a better bet at -155, but we’re picking Turner as the upset of the night. It’s a big return for a fighter on a winning streak with the exact tools to beat Gamrot.

The Bet
Jalin Turner

Bo Nickal -2000 vs Jamie Pickett +900

Nickal is 3-0 in MMA after two DWCS submission wins last year. He’s entering the UFC against Pickett, who is now 3-6 for the promotion in what is a clear feeder fight. Nickal is supposed to smash Jamie and he knows it.

This makes him dangerous, and Pickett is going to swing for the fences or at least he should if he has any chance of winning this fight. The Under 1.5 Rounds at -285 is a fantastic value bet, but we recommend the parlay above all else. Nickal is on the road to bigger and better things. Pickett has shown lackluster performances in all but one UFC appearance.

The Bet
Bo Nickal

Cody Garbrandt -185 vs Trevin Jones +140

Going 1-5 in your last six and somehow still ending up the favorite is some serious star power. Jones is 1-3 in the UFC after an overturned loss to Timur Valiev. His last two fights were decision losses via beating from the Snow Leopard and Raoni Barcelos.

Garbrandt has been inactive since 2021 and hasn’t held a title since 2017. Now 7-5 in the UFC, it’s tough to see how he was at one time an unstoppable force in the bantamweight division.

At 31, Cody will get to put his footwork back on display against Jones, who can’t strike at Cody’s level and has an 11% takedown accuracy. Our UFC 285 prediction is the Garbrandt money line as a high paying value bet, with no other bet on this fight a confident pick.

The Bet
Cody Garbrandt

Derek Brunson +185 vs Dricus Du Plessis -230

We had Brunson beating Cannonier, but he was finished decisively after scoring a knockdown and fading out. He now faces the 18-2 Du Plessis, who’s four UFC fights include three finishes.

Du Plessis is a takedown machine, with a high pace of striking. He’s absorbed a total 151 significant strikes in the UFC, and he looked better against Till than he did Tavares.

This fight is a tad unpredictable, because Du Plessis’ takedown defense is untested, and hovering at 50% despite only two attempts at the takedown across four fights. Brunson is going to test Du Plessis’ cage wrestling early and often. We see a Brunson win, with a slight bias toward the Over 1.5 rounds at -155.

The Bet
Derek Brunson

Amanda Ribas -120 vs Viviane Araujo +100

Ribas has struggled with contenders, going 1-2 since 2021. Both women have lost to Chookagian, but Ribas was more competitive, creating a split decision that came down to a choice between control time and significant strikes landed.

Araujo has never been finished and her 90% takedown defense makes this interesting for Ribas, who usually has no trouble scoring some control time.

The Over 2.5 rounds is listed at -275 and we agree, but will be looking at the UFC 285 odds for Over 1.5 rounds when they are released and betting on them if they’re under -400.

The Bet
Over 2.5 rounds

Julian Marquez +123 vs Marc-Andre Barriault -145

Marquez took a beating last June that we fear may affect future performances for the submission specialist. Still, Barriault is coming off a submission loss after 133 seconds last April.

His 3-5 UFC run is going to be tough to turn around, especially without quality takedowns or first round knockout power. Our UFC 285 prediction is the Underdog, ‘The Cuban Missile Crisis.’ We expect a submission win given Barriault’s lack of takedown defense, especially when matched up against a tenacious wrestler.

The Bet
Julian Marquez

Ian Garry -725 vs Kenan Song +475

Garry is undefeated at 10-0, being matched up with Kenan, who’s 18-6 record includes 2 UFC losses and 3 UFC finishes. Kenan is one of the more dangerous fighters Garry has faced in total finishing ability, but his recent TKO loss and two years out of the cage make him a tough upset to bet on.

Garry is one of our favorite MMA strikers and a rising talent in the UFC Welterweight division. We’re happy to see him taking a slow climb to contention at only 25 years old.

The Bet
Ian Garry

Cameron Saaiman -310 vs Mana Martinez +250

2-2 in the UFC, Mana is a scrapper who rallied a split decision against Davis in spite of two knockdowns scored. Saaiman is an undefeated knockout artist that can’t defend the takedown.

It should be a Saaiman win, but we’re also interested in the ‘No Decision’ prop bets, a -135 value bet for those interested in Martinez’s upset ability, despite no UFC finishes.

Saaiman is a fine addition for a five-fight parlay, but definitely our last UFC 285 prediction worth adding to a night of one-sided fights.

The Bet
Cameron Saaiman

Jessica Penne +225 vs Tabatha Ricci -285

With the UFC since 2012, the 40-year-old Penne faces a 28-year-old athlete in Ricci, who struggled in 2021, but has since out-paced two fighters with quality wrestling alone.

Penne’s 40% takedown defense is moderate, but her submission work is the real fear. Ricci will be forced to contend with Penne’s submissions or her reach advantage and superior striking. I think the Ricci camp plans a boring control-based decision while Penne works a finish.

This is the toughest fight to predict on the card and we offer a low confidence decision to Ricci who is overrated in her -285 position as she faces her toughest challenge since Fiorot.

The Bet
Tabatha Ricci

Darmon Blackshear +365 vs Farid Basharat -525

Basharat is the brother of the undefeated Javid Basharat, now 4-0 in the UFC. Farid won his DWCS showing via one sided decision, and faces Blackshear after ‘The Monster’ went to a draw in his UFC debut to Youssef Zalal.

Tall for a bantamweight, Blackshear struggled against the lanky Zalal, and we struggled to understand the UFC’s decision in not giving Zalal the win after landing triple the significant strikes.

Basharat has fought only moderate quality fighters. Blackshear is his first true test, so this is a fight we’re considering a quality bet rather than a Parlay addition in spite of the UFC 285 betting odds massive favor of Basharat.

The Bet
Farid Basharat

Esteban Ribovics +160 vs Kamuela Kirk (Loik Radzhabov -200 Out)

Kirk is 1-2 and replacing Radzhabov on short notice. We expect Ribovics to move to favorite status, since Kirk has been finished twice in the UFC and Ribovics has repeatedly shown finishing power, including a DWCS 90 second knockout.

Ribovics is undefeated and Kirk is on par with other fighters Ribovics has beaten with a 12-5 record. Look for the under props if you’re disinterested in the Esteban money line once released.

The Bet
Esteban Ribovics

Massive UFC 285 Parlay Opportunity

The three-fight parlay between Nickal, Valentina, and Rakhomonov is one of the highest confidence three fight parlays we’ve seen on a single UFC card. These fighters are destined to meet or stay at championship level, with a collective payout of $43.52 per $100 wagered, a -230 value bet.

Sources:

http://ufcstats.com/event-details/1ccff7f0cfdf85eb

https://www.actionnetwork.com/betting-calculators/betting-odds-calculator

 

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Jacob Clark
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Jacob Clark had a 15-year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, one of TikTok’s most important BJJ influencers, Jacob is bringing his fight sports and betting knowledge to you here at The Sports Geek. When not writing insightful fight sports content, Jacob can be found teaching jiu-jitsu seminars all over Indiana and surrounding states.

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