UFC 321 Odds and Picks – Can Aspinall Retain His Belt Against Gane?

• Tom Aspinall (-410)
• Ciryl Gane (+330)

Aspinall (15-3) has been absolutely dominant in the UFC, although he didn’t get his dream matchup against Jon Jones, who retired. That promoted Aspinall from interim heavyweight champion to the undisputed baddest man in the UFC.

Gane (13-2) lost to Jones, and got through a tough split decision against Alexander Volkov in December 2024. Most thought Volkov won the fight. That doesn’t bode well for the Frenchman, who was taken down easily and submitted by Jones. Although 12 of Aspinall’s wins have come by knockout, the Manchester native is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and could take Gane to the mat. Gane, who is from France, is also a good Muay Thai artist. But Aspinall has a ton of firepower in his striking.

I would make Tom Aspinall my UFC 321 prediction for this match, but I wouldn’t bet it at -410. Instead, I am going to wait for an Aspinall Inside Distance prop to hit the market, which will likely happen later this week. I just can’t see Gane standing up to Aspinall’s sheer power and technique.

• Virna Jandiroba (+145)
• Mackenzie Dern (-174)

The co-main event is for the vacant women’s strawweight belt, and it is also a rematch between Jandiroba (22-3) and Dern (15-5). Dern defeated Jandiroba by unanimous decision in September 2020.

Dern edged the fight, but Jandiroba showed a lot in winning the second round, despite being poked in the eye. Both use their striking to get into their grappling, and Dern got the better of their striking exchanges in the first match. However, Jandiroba managed to slam Dern to the mat and work some ground-and-pound.

I’m going to take the return and put Virna Jandiroba in my UFC 321 betting predictions for Saturday in a fascinating match. Dern is incredibly decorated on the mat, but didn’t really have much success with that. If Jandiroba has improved her striking, she’ll be a nice addition to your UFC 321 picks!

• Aleksandar Rakic (-102)
• Azamat Murzakanov (-117)

The UFC 321 odds are close between Rakić (14-5) and Murzakanov (15-0), and Rakic needs a win badly after three straight losses, including two by TKO. One did come because of a knee injury against Jan Blachowicz in May 2022, but Rakić hasn’t won since.

Murzakanov has five TKO/KO wins in six matches since joining the UFC, and will be at a seven-inch reach disadvantage against the 6’5” Rakić, who has a 78-inch reach. Rakić will likely use his kickboxing to try and keep the 5’10” Murzakanov at bay.

But I have confidence in Murzakanov to take Rakić’s best strikes and walk through them, and I’m banking on the Russian in my UFC 321 bets! He’s the favorite here, but at -117, that’s a solid enough return that I’ll lay a wager on “The Professional”.