Estrada vs Chocolatito III Odds and Pick

This Saturday, Juan Francisco Estrada and Roman Gonzalez ‘Chocolatito’ go head to head for the third time. Estrada vs Chocolatito III odds are found on Bovada, with ten betting markets and dozens of long shot bet options for the top boxing betting sites.

Top Boxing Betting Pick for Estrada +180 vs Chocolatito -235 III Odds

Roman lost a split decision in the second fight with Estrada, making the two 1-1 in their decade long rivalry. Estrada’s lack of activity is concerning. He hasn’t fought since March of 2021, and Chocolatito’s momentum from his win over the 18-1 Julio Martinez in March should give him the edge to win the narrow decision.

Top Bet for Fans of Estrada

Estrada fans, and all fans, should consider the Over 10 ½ Rounds prop bet at -360. Both of their first two bouts were decisions. Gonzalez has seen three TKO wins over his last six bouts, and Estrada has the same 50% TKO ratio. Neither man had the other in dire straights during their last bout, so the Over feels like one of the safest bets of the night.

Prop Bet and Over/Under Bets for Estrada vs Chocolatito III

Chocolatito is known as one of the highest profile knockout artists of the super flyweight division, finishing 41 of 54 fights via TKO. In his last 20 fights, none of those knockouts have been past round nine. This can make it tough to consider the Over 10 ½ Rounds prop over the No Decision prop.

Estrada’s TKO Ratio and Average Rounds

Estrada has 28 TKOs in 46 fights, a 60.87% knockout ratio. He’s knocked out two opponents in round ten over his last twelve fights, and he’s more of an accumulation puncher than Chocolatito. On the inside, where Estrada is generally the most dangerous, Chocolatito continuously outboxed him.

Boxing Analysis for Estrada vs Chocolatito III

Estrada vs Chocolatito odds reflect Gonzalez performances and not his outcome. The split decision was a close call, but Gonzalez repeatedly landed fantastic hooks on the inside, with Estrada hanging his head in the pocket.

Chocolatito’s incredible rate of fire will be tough to match in fight three, but he should look to get a similar level of activity in fight 3. The judges prioritized how often Estrada landed, and not necessarily the quality of the punches. Gonzalez may have Estrada scared to engage in the rubber match, and Estrada would be wise to come with a longer range game plan.

Top Underdog Prop bet for Estrada vs Chocolatito III

There is no shortage of knockout prop bets, but Chocolatito by decision stands out at +120. If there is a knockout, a late win for either fighter is a solid choice. Chocolatito’s rounds 7-12 TKO prop at +450 seems plausible. The Estrada round 1-6 TKO prop at +2200 is a ten times return, and matches Gonzalez knockout loss to Wisaksil Wangek in 2017.

Estrada vs Chocolatito III at the Top Online Sports Books

If you don’t see the bet you’re looking for on Bovada, be sure to check out the sports books available in your area, listed below. Chocolatito vs Estrada odds are subject to change, especially as we get closer to December 3rd. Look for more bets and a flexible money lines, and consider a parlay ticket coupled with our boxing picks for Chisora vs Fury III through the weekend.

About the Author
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Jacob Clark
Sports/Casino Writer
Blog and News
Jacob Clark had a 15-year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, one of TikTok’s most important BJJ influencers, Jacob is bringing his fight sports and betting knowledge to you here at The Sports Geek. When not writing insightful fight sports content, Jacob can be found teaching jiu-jitsu seminars all over Indiana and surrounding states.

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