2025-26 EPL Title Odds and Prediction: Can Arsenal Hold Man City Off?

I picked Arsenal to win the Premier League before the season start and felt very confident in my prediction in December. I strongly believe this is the best squad in the league this year, in terms of both quality and depth.

However, the Gunners have been very inconsistent since the start of the calendar year. They have become the masters of winning ugly, which is essential if you want to win the title, but they rarely dominate teams. In fact, most of their games are close, regardless of the opposition. This is not sustainable in the long run, but with only seven games left, it may be enough.

Arsenal’s gritty defense and the ability to score from set pieces make them custom-built for this year’s title race. No one is dominating, so the team most capable of grinding results will win at the end.

Up to this point, the Gunners have been that team. They often deliver ugly wins that are painful to watch even for their fans, but getting the job done is the only thing that matters in the spring.

As a result of their consistent ability to get wins without playing particularly well, Arsenal now have a 9-point lead over Manchester City. Even if the Gunners lose at the Etihad and City win their game in hand, Arsenal will still have a 3-point advantage.

Furthermore, the team’s schedule by the end of the year is relatively light. They have tough games against City and West Ham away, as well as a tricky matchup against Newcastle at home, but their other matches are against beatable teams.

Given their recent form and injuries, I expect a few missteps from Arsenal. However, they do have a nice cushion right now and can afford a few poor results. As long as they can win their winnable games and not drop a surprising defeat somewhere, it should be enough.

I didn’t expect Manchester City to be fighting for the title at the start of the season, but I don’t think my prediction was way off. All big teams have struggled this year, and City brought two of the best players in the Premier League in January.

They would’ve been 10+ points behind Arsenal without Guehi and Semenyo. These two have kept the title race alive, but can City catch Arsenal from so many points behind?

The team has looked great recently, beating the Gunners in the League Cup Final and then demolishing Liverpool in the FA Cup. If Man City win all remaining games in the Premier League, they have a chance.

However, that’s a big if. The team has struggled to find the right balance this season and has a similar issue as Arsenal (albeit for different reasons): many of City’s games are close. Even after they deliver a few good performances, there’s usually a drop because their defense is vulnerable.

It’s hard to imagine that this version of Man City can stay perfect for 8 games in a row, especially since the next two are against Chelsea away and Arsenal at home. If Guardiola and his team win them both, the race will be on, but as it stands, the Gunners are rightfully favored.