Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds - April 13, 2025

As a seasoned bettor, I’ve seen my fair share of ups and downs in the betting world, but there’s always something electric about an afternoon matchup like this one between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. I’ve got my lucky socks on today, and I’m feeling good about this game.

Let’s break down what we can expect. The Pirates are sending Carmen Mlodzinski to the mound, who has had a bit of a shaky start with a 1-1 record and an ERA sitting around 4.6. But you know what? Stats sometimes don’t tell the whole story. He’s got an impressive strikeout rate — nearly 9 per nine innings — which tells me he has some swing-and-miss ability that could play well against a Reds lineup that’s been inconsistent at best.

On the other side is Hunter Greene for Cincinnati. With a win-loss record of 1-1 and an ERA hovering just above 3.1, he’s been solid but not invincible. His strikeout numbers aren’t bad either, sitting above 7 per game, but I can’t help but feel there are moments when he gets too comfortable on the mound – and that’s when hitters capitalize.

Now let’s talk offense—this is where things get interesting! The Pirates aren’t lighting the scoreboard on fire, averaging just over 3 runs per game with a batting average below .200. However, they’re hitting as many balls as their opponents (about 6.7 hits per game) which says to me they’re not far off from breaking through if they just find some consistency.

Cincinnati’s bats have shown slightly more life overall compared to Pittsburgh; yet they also struggle with consistency at times. I mean come on – they’re barely scraping by with less than four runs per game! Still, their OBP percentage suggests they’re getting on base more often than not, so there’s potential for them to exploit Mlodzinski if he leaves anything over the plate.

With these two lineups squaring off against each other today, I see it shaping up as a gritty battle rather than an offensive explosion—but I’m banking on that slight edge going to Pittsburgh in this one. They’ve lost their last few games against Cincinnati recently; however, sometimes teams rally together after tough stretches and pull off unexpected wins — especially as underdogs.

The oddsmakers have set Cincinnati as -189 favorites which feels steep considering both teams’ recent performances. My gut tells me there’s value in taking Pittsburgh here not only because of those trends but also because I believe Mlodzinski will surprise today while Greene may falter slightly under pressure.

As for the total set at eight: I’m leaning toward betting OVER based on both pitchers’ tendencies to give up runs along with those decent batting averages lurking beneath the surface waiting to break out.

So there you have it—a combination of stats pointing towards tight competition mixed with my own superstition makes me confident that it’ll be Pittsburgh pulling off the upset against Cincinnati today while exceeding that total run mark! Let’s roll those dice!