Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets - May 1, 2025

As I settle into my favorite spot at Citi Field, the anticipation in the air is palpable. Tonight, we’ve got a clash between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the New York Mets that promises to be a rollercoaster ride of emotions for bettors like us. The oddsmakers opened with the Mets as -147 favorites, and with good reason – they are riding a solid start to their season.

Let’s talk pitching. The Diamondbacks are sending out their ace who has had his struggles – a 1-4 record with an ERA hovering around 5.6. Not exactly confidence-inspiring stats if you ask me. Meanwhile, the Mets are countering with their own right-hander who boasts an impressive 1.3 ERA and a 3-1 record this season. You don’t need to be a seasoned bettor to see which way this pitching matchup leans; it’s advantage Mets.

Now, let’s dive into some numbers that matter for those of us looking to wager smartly tonight. The Diamondbacks have been struggling recently, sporting an unfortunate 1-6 against-the-spread (ATS) record in their last seven games, along with just two wins in their last seven contests overall. On the flip side, the Mets have been on fire at home, going 6-1 ATS over their last seven games there and sitting at a stellar 10-3 straight up in their recent outings.

From an offensive standpoint, both teams appear evenly matched when it comes to batting average (both sitting around .240). However, where the Diamondbacks shine is in runs scored per game—averaging about 5.4 compared to the Mets’ respectable but lower figure of roughly 4.7 runs per game. Still, when you factor in how well Senga has been pitching lately combined with home-field advantage for New York—a critical aspect that often sways outcomes—you start leaning towards a favorable result for them.

Now here comes my betting instinct kicking into high gear; I can’t shake off that gut feeling about tonight’s total runs scored either. With these two lineups producing decent offensive numbers and given how Gallen’s inconsistency might lead him into trouble early on, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more than the set total of 7.5 runs hit before all is said and done.

So here’s my prediction: The Mets will take down the Diamondbacks this evening—likely by more than one run—and I’m betting on an OVER outcome as well since both teams have shown they can put up some serious numbers at times despite recent trends.

As always when placing your bets tonight folks—remember your rituals! Whether it’s wearing your lucky cap or having your favorite drink by your side while watching—I swear by mine! Good luck out there; may our wallets grow heavier after tonight’s action at Citi Field!