Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees - May 4, 2025

As I gear up for Sunday’s clash between the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium, it’s time to delve into the numbers and uncover what we can expect from this matchup. The Rays are looking to build on their recent success against the Yankees, having secured a narrow 3-2 victory in their last meeting.

Starting on the mound for Tampa Bay is Taj Bradley. He enters this game with a 2-2 record and a respectable 3.6 ERA. His strikeout rate of 8.4 per nine innings indicates that he has the ability to miss bats effectively, which could be crucial against a Yankees lineup that averages an impressive 5.7 runs per game. On the other hand, Will Warren will take the ball for New York with a record of 1-1 and an ERA of about 3.9—a figure that suggests he’s been solid but not without his struggles.

When we look at both offenses, there’s a clear disparity in performance levels. The Yankees have been productive offensively, averaging just over 5.7 runs per game with a .261 batting average and an outstanding on-base percentage of approximately 80%. In contrast, Tampa Bay is struggling to generate runs, averaging only around 3.9 per game with a lower batting average of .244.

However, despite these offensive challenges for Tampa Bay, recent trends suggest they may be able to capitalize on Warren’s inconsistencies—especially considering they’ve already defeated him once this season as -220 favorites in their last outing together.

The odds opened with New York as -156 favorites; however, given how close their previous matchup was and how well Tampa performed recently as +180 underdogs against them, I wouldn’t count out the Rays today—especially if they can leverage Bradley’s strikeout potential effectively.

Another factor worth noting is how both teams have fared against totals lately; Tampa has seen seven of its last eight games go UNDER while New York has also trended towards low-scoring affairs recently with five unders in their last six games played. However, given both pitchers’ ability to give up runs along with each team’s current form—particularly New York’s strong home performance—it wouldn’t be surprising if today’s total eclipses that initial mark of nine runs.

In conclusion, my prediction leans towards an upset victory for Tampa Bay today over New York based on recent performances and pitching matchups—alongside expectations for more than nine total runs scored throughout the contest due to offensive capabilities displayed by both sides thus far this season. As always in baseball though: anything can happen!