Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals - May 7, 2025

As I dive into the matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals, I can’t help but lean towards the Cardinals for this game at Busch Stadium. The numbers paint a clear picture of two teams heading in opposite directions.

First, let’s look at the pitching matchup. Mitch Keller takes the mound for Pittsburgh with a record of 1-3 and an ERA of 4.4. While his strikeouts per nine innings sit at a solid 7.5, he has struggled to keep runs off the board consistently this season. On the other hand, Sonny Gray brings a slightly better record of 3-1 and an ERA just under 4.5 (let’s call it 4.5 for simplicity). His strikeout rate is also impressive at about 6.9 per nine innings, which suggests he can miss bats when needed.

When we shift our focus to team performance, it’s evident that St. Louis has been on a roll lately, winning four straight games compared to Pittsburgh’s six-game losing streak. The Cardinals are averaging around 4.6 runs per game with nearly 8.9 hits and an on-base percentage of approximately 72%. Their offense has shown some life recently as evidenced by their last outing against Pittsburgh where they managed to secure a narrow victory with only two runs scored—indicating their ability to win close games even when scoring isn’t prolific.

Conversely, Pittsburgh’s offensive stats are concerning; they average just over 3 runs per game with only about 7 hits and have fallen short in terms of batting average (.220) compared to their opponents’ .256 mark. They also struggle significantly in driving in runs with just over three RBIs per game—this lack of production could be detrimental against a team like St. Louis that thrives on capitalizing from any mistakes made by opposing pitchers.

In terms of betting lines, oddsmakers opened up with St. Louis as -172 favorites—a reflection not only of their recent form but also their home advantage at Busch Stadium where they tend to perform better than on the road.

Given all these factors, I predict that the Cardinals will emerge victorious tonight against the Pirates while exceeding the total run line set at 7.5 based on both teams’ current trends and statistics surrounding scoring capabilities.

In summary, expect St. Louis to continue its winning ways fueled by strong pitching from Gray coupled with an offense that should find ways to exploit Keller’s vulnerabilities on the mound—leading us likely into higher-scoring territory than anticipated!