Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates - May 10, 2025

As I look ahead to Saturday’s matchup between the Atlanta Braves and the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park, I’m reminded of how crucial team dynamics and recent performances can influence the outcome of a game. Both teams have had their struggles this season, but there’s a palpable sense of anticipation surrounding this contest.

On the mound for Atlanta will be AJ Smith-Shawver. He’s shown promise with a 2-2 record and an ERA hovering around 4.1. His ability to generate strikeouts – averaging nearly 8.7 per game – indicates that he can miss bats and potentially keep runs off the board. However, he’ll need to harness that skill effectively against a lineup that’s been less than impressive overall.

Now, let’s talk about his counterpart from Pittsburgh, Andrew Heaney. With a slightly higher ERA at around 4.4 and a win-loss record of 2-3, Heaney has been fighting through some inconsistency this season as well. His strikeout rate is lower than Smith-Shawver’s at about 7.4 per game, which suggests he may rely more on pitch-to-contact strategies rather than overpowering hitters.

When we analyze both lineups, it becomes apparent that Atlanta has an advantage offensively despite their recent slump; they’re averaging about four runs per game compared to Pittsburgh’s meager average of just over three runs. The Braves are getting on base more effectively too with an on-base slugging percentage nearing 68%, contrasted with the Pirates’ just over 61%. That tells me they should create more scoring opportunities when facing Heaney.

However, both teams have also been trending towards low-scoring affairs lately; five out of their last six games have seen totals go UNDER—an important note for those considering betting angles in this matchup. Yet given the power potential in Atlanta’s lineup coupled with their strong track record against left-handed pitchers historically, I predict this might be one of those rare days where we see runs accumulate early.

Looking back at their last encounter where Pittsburgh managed to snag a narrow victory (3-2), it highlights how close these matchups can be—but perhaps don’t let those results cloud your judgment too much here as conditions change throughout each series.

Ultimately, my prediction leans towards an Atlanta Braves victory today despite their slight struggles recently—and possibly in higher-scoring fashion than anticipated given the numbers presented here today versus what we’ve seen earlier in the week from both squads.

In summary: Expect AJ Smith-Shawver to step up and deliver a solid outing while Andrew Heaney looks to find his rhythm amidst challenges faced this season thus far; however, ultimately I believe Atlanta takes control late in what could end up being an OVER affair based on past performance patterns combined with offensive capabilities displayed so far this season.