Toronto Maple Leafs @ Florida Panthers - May 11, 2025

Alright, folks, let’s dive into this Sunday showdown between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Florida Panthers at Amerant Bank Arena. With both teams looking to grab a critical victory, we’re in for an exciting match-up.

First off, the oddsmakers have set the Panthers as hefty -215 favorites. Now, that might seem enticing if you’re a Florida fan, but let’s not forget that Toronto has been on quite a roll lately. They’ve gone 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games and are riding high with a 15-4 straight-up record over their past 19 games. That’s no small feat!

Now, let’s take a closer look at what these teams bring to the ice. The Panthers are averaging just over three goals per game (3.056), with solid offensive metrics like a 23.53% power play percentage. However, they’ve struggled when it comes to covering spreads lately—only managing an abysmal 8-17 ATS in their last 25 outings.

On the flip side, the Maple Leafs boast a slightly better offensive output with around 3.278 goals per game and an impressive shooting percentage of over 12%. Their power play isn’t too shabby either at 24.77%. While they may not dominate possession stats like Florida does (with a corsi percentage of about 55%), they know how to capitalize on opportunities when they arise.

Defensively speaking, both teams have shown promise; however, Toronto edges out Florida in save percentage at 90.5%, compared to Florida’s respectable but lower mark of 89.6%. This could be crucial as we move deeper into this game—if Toronto can keep shots against them down while capitalizing on scoring chances, they’ll be in good shape.

One thing that caught my eye is that both teams have seen their recent games go OVER—Toronto’s hit the OVER in five of their last six games while Florida has done so in five straight contests as well! But here’s where I think we find some value: despite those trends, I’m leaning towards an UNDER prediction for this matchup based on how both defenses are capable of tightening up when it counts.

Now for my bold prediction: I see Toronto pulling off an upset here and covering the spread as underdogs. They’ve shown resilience and grit lately that can’t be overlooked. If they can leverage their superior penalty kill (77.87%) against Florida’s power play struggles (0.697 power play goals per game), we might see them frustrate the Panthers enough to secure this win.

In conclusion, expect fireworks early on but ultimately lean towards Toronto taking home this victory while also keeping things under that total score line of six goals tonight! Remember folks—always trust your instincts and maybe sprinkle some good luck charm before placing those bets!