Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets - May 12, 2025

As I prepare for the matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets at Citi Field, it’s hard not to be excited about the statistical insights that can help illuminate what we might expect from this game. The Mets come into this contest with a solid record of 26-15, while the Pirates are struggling at 14-27.

Starting on the mound for the Pirates is Paul Skenes, who has had a mixed season with a 3-4 record and an ERA of 4.4. While he does average about 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings, his overall performance suggests that he may struggle against a potent Mets lineup. On the other hand, David Peterson will take the hill for New York with a slightly better win-loss record of 2-2 and an impressive ERA of just under 3.0 at 2.9. His ability to rack up over 9 strikeouts per nine innings indicates that he has been effective in keeping hitters off balance.

When looking at offensive production, there is a stark contrast between these two teams. The Mets are averaging nearly five runs per game (4.8) and boast an impressive .246 batting average along with an on-base percentage slugging percentage of over 74%. In comparison, the Pirates are only managing just over three runs per game (3.1) with a batting average plummeting to .214 and a significantly lower on-base slugging percentage around 61%.

The oddsmakers have opened up betting lines favoring the Mets at -139 which reflects their stronger position this season compared to their opponents’ struggles both offensively and defensively.

In terms of recent form, New York won its last outing against Chicago by a score of 6-2 while Pittsburgh edged out Atlanta in a close match ending in favor of Pittsburgh at 4-3—a positive sign but one that still doesn’t erase their broader struggles as they’ve gone just 2-8 in their last ten games.

Given all these factors—Skenes’ elevated ERA, Peterson’s effectiveness on the mound, and the significant disparity in offensive output—I predict that tonight’s game will likely end with a victory for New York.

Moreover, considering both teams’ recent trends regarding total scores—the total being set at over/under of 7.5—I’m inclined to think we could see more than that number tonight given how well New York has been hitting lately combined with some potential lapses from Skenes.

In summary: Expect a solid performance from David Peterson leading to another win for New York against Pittsburgh as they continue to build momentum through May—and don’t be surprised if we see more than eight runs scored collectively by both teams as they battle it out under those Citi Field lights!