St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies - May 14, 2025

As I prepare for the matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, I can’t help but dive into the numbers that tell the story of this game. The Phillies, opening as -175 moneyline favorites, have a slight edge in terms of overall performance this season with a record of 24-17 compared to the Cardinals’ 23-19. However, recent form tells a different tale.

The Cardinals are riding high on a nine-game winning streak and are 5-0 both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in their last five games. Their offense has been productive, averaging about 4.7 runs per game while boasting a batting average of .258 and an impressive on-base percentage (OBP) at approximately 73.1%. These stats indicate that they can effectively put pressure on opposing pitchers.

On the mound for St. Louis is Erick Fedde, who holds a 3-3 record with an ERA of around 3.9 and averages just over seven strikeouts per game. While he has shown flashes of brilliance, his inconsistency could be concerning against a formidable Phillies lineup.

Conversely, Jesus Luzardo takes the hill for Philadelphia with an eye-popping ERA of approximately 2.1 coupled with an undefeated record at 3-0 this season. His ability to strike out nearly ten batters per game provides him with a significant advantage when facing hitters from St. Louis who may struggle against left-handed pitching—something Luzardo excels at.

When we analyze both teams’ offensive outputs further, we see that Philadelphia scores about 4.8 runs per game and collects around 8.8 hits per contest—slightly ahead of St. Louis’s figures in those categories (4.7 runs and roughly 8.9 hits). This suggests that while both offenses are evenly matched in terms of output, Philadelphia has been slightly more effective recently.

However, it’s important to note that both teams have seen their totals go UNDER in several recent games; St. Louis has gone UNDER in five out of their last six contests while Philadelphia has done so four times in their past six outings as well.

Given these trends and considering Luzardo’s strong performance versus Fedde’s potential vulnerability under pressure tonight, I predict that the Phillies will emerge victorious in this contest despite their recent loss to the Cardinals earlier this month—a result they’ll surely want to avenge on home turf.

In terms of scoring expectations for this game, I’m inclined to believe we might see more than just a few runs crossing home plate tonight; thus leaning towards taking the OVER on total runs scored which opened at 8.5 seems prudent given both teams’ capacity for hitting combined with Luzardo’s ability to keep batters off balance.

In summary: Expect a competitive showdown where I foresee Philadelphia coming out on top while also believing there’s enough firepower present from both lineups to push us above that total mark set by oddsmakers!