Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers - May 18, 2025

As I gear up for the Sunday showdown between the Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field, it’s hard to ignore the intriguing dynamics at play. The Twins are riding a remarkable wave of momentum, boasting a 13-game winning streak that has catapulted them to a 26-20 record. Meanwhile, the Brewers find themselves struggling with a 21-25 record and have lost four out of their last five games.

On the mound for Minnesota will be Zebby Matthews, who is yet to make an appearance this season but boasts an impressive 0.00 ERA in his limited outings. While it’s exciting to see what he can bring to the table, we have to consider that he’s untested against major league hitters this year. On the other hand, Freddy Peralta takes the hill for Milwaukee with a solid win-loss record of 4-3 and an ERA of 4.3—numbers that suggest he can handle pressure situations.

The oddsmakers opened with Milwaukee as -164 favorites, which reflects their confidence in Peralta’s ability to bounce back after being shut out by Minnesota in their last meeting—a game where they lost 7-0. For bettors who took Minnesota on the moneyline at -125 during that matchup, it was certainly rewarding.

When examining offensive production, both teams have shown capabilities but also inconsistency this season. The Twins average about 4.1 runs per game with a batting average hovering around .233 and an on-base slugging percentage of approximately 67.8%. Conversely, Milwaukee is slightly ahead in terms of runs scored per game at about 4.4 but lags behind with a batting average of .228 and an on-base slugging percentage of around 64.9%.

What stands out here is not just individual performance metrics but trends over time; notably, both teams have been trending towards unders recently—Minnesota hitting under in twelve out of their last seventeen games while Milwaukee has gone under in seven out of eight contests.

Given these statistics and recent performances, my prediction leans toward Milwaukee taking this one home despite their current struggles—they’ll need Peralta’s experience on the mound against a fresh-faced Matthews who might struggle under pressure from seasoned hitters.

I anticipate seeing some fireworks offensively today as well; thus I’m predicting we’ll see more than eight total runs scored based on each team’s tendency to score when facing pitchers they’ve never faced before or those coming off rough outings like Peralta had last week.

In summary: expect a close battle today where I believe Milwaukee edges out Minnesota while also surpassing that total run line set by oddsmakers!