Toronto Blue Jays @ St. Louis Cardinals - June 11, 2025

Alright, folks, it’s time to break down this matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Toronto Blue Jays at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals are looking to snap a three-game losing streak, while the Blue Jays ride some solid momentum into this contest.

Let’s start with the pitching matchup. The Cardinals will send out Matthew Liberatore, who’s had his ups and downs this season with a 3-5 record and an ERA hovering around 3.9. His strikeout rate is decent—over seven strikeouts per nine innings—but he can be prone to giving up runs when he gets rattled. On the other side of the mound is Eric Lauer for Toronto, coming in with a 2-1 record and an impressive 2.1 ERA this season. Lauer has been striking batters out at a nice clip too, over nine K’s per nine innings—which means he can get himself out of trouble if needed.

Looking at their recent form, Toronto has been on fire lately with a 6-1 record against the spread in their last seven games and winning six out of those seven straight-up! They’ve also shown they can score runs as evidenced by their last outing—10 runs against St. Louis—and have gone over the total in five consecutive games. However, let’s not underestimate that Cardinals’ offense; they’re putting up nearly 4.6 runs per game and hitting close to .252 on average.

Now, let’s dive deeper into what we might see tonight. The Cardinals have struggled recently but they have home-field advantage here at Busch Stadium—a place where they’ve historically performed better than on the road. They need this win desperately after dropping a tough one to these same Blue Jays just days ago.

When you look at their batting stats side-by-side, both teams are fairly comparable in terms of runs scored and hits per game—but what stands out is how well each team can potentially capitalize on mistakes from opposing pitchers. With Liberatore feeling pressure after his recent outings mixed with Lauer’s ability to rack up strikeouts—this game could very well hinge on whether or not Liberatore can keep his composure early on.

Here’s where I put my betting hat back on: I’ve got my own system that tends to lean towards home teams when they’re facing a little adversity like St.Louis is right now. Plus, considering how both offenses can explode (especially if either pitcher falters), I’m leaning toward taking the Cardinals here despite their current slump—I think they’ll rally tonight.

However, given the pitched battles expected between two capable starters—noting that Lauer should keep runs down—I’m leaning towards betting under the total of 8.5 as well because I expect both pitchers will find success early before any fireworks break out later in the game.

So my prediction? Cards take it tonight while keeping things tight defensively; hit that under line if you’re looking for value! Let’s hope for some good luck tonight!