Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs - June 15, 2025

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face off against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Sunday, we find ourselves analyzing a matchup that has significant implications for both teams in this tightly contested division. The Cubs enter this game with a strong record of 43-28, while the Pirates sit at 29-43, struggling to find their footing.

Starting on the mound for the Pirates is Mitch Keller, who holds a disappointing 1-9 record despite a respectable 3.9 ERA. While his strikeout rate of approximately 7.4 per nine innings suggests he has potential as an effective pitcher, his inability to secure wins speaks volumes about the struggles within the team’s overall performance. The Pirates’ offense supports him poorly, averaging just 3.2 runs and hitting .224 collectively—both figures rank among the lowest in Major League Baseball.

On the other side of the diamond is Colin Rea for the Cubs, boasting a solid 4-2 record and an impressive ERA of around 3.7. With nearly 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings, Rea has been an integral part of Chicago’s pitching success this season. The Cubs have shown consistent offensive firepower as well; they average roughly 5.6 runs per game with a batting average hovering around .250—a stark contrast to their opponents’ numbers.

The oddsmakers opened this contest with Chicago favored at -159 on the moneyline and set an over/under total at 7.5 runs—a reflection of how closely matched these teams are perceived to be despite their records suggesting otherwise.

Recent trends bolster expectations for Chicago in this matchup: they have won 15 out of their last 23 games and are an impressive 10-2 in their last dozen home games at Wrigley Field. Additionally, they’ve gone UNDER in nine of their last eleven contests—an indication that while they can score effectively when needed, they also possess a solid pitching staff capable of limiting opposing offenses.

Conversely, Pittsburgh’s recent form shows some signs of life with four wins against the spread (ATS) in their last six games but remains inconsistent overall with only six victories across their past nine outings—a concerning statistic given their current standing.

Considering all these factors—the disparity between each team’s offensive output combined with Keller’s struggles on the mound—we can reasonably predict that today’s game will likely favor Chicago once again. I anticipate another low-scoring affair where Rea leads his team to victory while maintaining control over Pittsburgh’s lineup.

In summary, I expect Chicago to emerge victorious against Pittsburgh today while keeping total runs under our initial projection of seven-and-a-half due to both teams’ recent trends toward lower scoring games and Keller’s continued challenges on the mound versus Rea’s effectiveness as a starter for Chicago.