Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets - June 23, 2025

As an experienced bettor, I’ve seen it all in the world of MLB. The highs, the lows, and every nail-biting moment in between. Tonight’s matchup at Citi Field between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets has all the makings of a classic showdown. With Spencer Schwellenbach taking the mound for Atlanta and Paul Blackburn getting the nod for New York, there are some intriguing angles to consider.

Let’s start with Schwellenbach. Sporting a solid win-loss record of 5-4 and a respectable ERA of 3.8, he’s been a reliable arm for the Braves this season. His strikeouts per nine innings are impressive as well—over 9—and when he’s on his game, he can be very tough to hit. However, I can’t help but notice that Atlanta has struggled on the road lately with just four wins in their last 14 attempts outside of their home park. Though they’re coming off a tough loss against Miami, there’s something about these guys that makes me think they might not have enough gas left in the tank tonight.

On the flip side, we have Blackburn for New York—a pitcher still searching for his first win of the season with an underwhelming ERA hovering around 3.2. Now, you might look at that number and think “not too shabby,” but one must consider that this will be his second start after returning from injury or poor performance (depending on how you look at it). There could be some lingering rust or jitters; however, he does have decent strikeout numbers which means he can still generate swings and misses when necessary.

Let’s also take into account both teams’ batting stats as they stand today. The Mets put up slightly better numbers than the Braves overall—averaging close to 4.4 runs per game compared to Atlanta’s 4.2—but here’s where things get interesting: both teams share identical batting averages at .239. Clearly, neither squad is lighting up scoreboards like they did earlier in their respective seasons.

The oddsmakers set Atlanta as -139 favorites tonight which had me scratching my head initially given their recent struggles on the road versus New York’s solid home record this year (46-32 SU). With both teams having gone UNDER in their last five games and given how lackluster their offense has been recently—especially from Atlanta—I’m leaning towards expecting another low-scoring affair tonight.

So what do I predict? Call it instinct mixed with analysis; I foresee a Mets victory tonight over those pesky Braves—with perhaps just enough offense to push us under that total line set at 9 runs. If you’re feeling lucky or looking for value bets tonight, I’d strongly suggest considering backing New York while keeping an eye on those UNDER odds as well.

When it comes to betting rituals? Well let’s just say I’ll be wearing my lucky cap while placing this wager! Good luck out there!