New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates - June 27, 2025

As a retired coach, I can’t help but feel the excitement that builds before a game at PNC Park, where the atmosphere is always electric. Tonight, the New York Mets are set to face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates in what promises to be an intriguing matchup for fans and analysts alike.

Let’s start with the pitching duel. The Mets will send David Peterson to the mound. With a solid record of 5-3 and an ERA hovering around 3.3, he has demonstrated his ability to keep hitters at bay effectively this season. His strikeout capability is impressive as well; averaging over eight strikeouts per nine innings speaks volumes about his capacity to dominate opposing batters. On the flip side, Mitch Keller will be toeing the rubber for Pittsburgh. Unfortunately for him and Pirates fans, his win-loss record of 1-10 reflects a season riddled with challenges on the mound despite having an ERA of around 4.0 that shows he isn’t entirely ineffective.

When analyzing their offensive performance this season, it’s clear why oddsmakers opened up with Mets as -175 favorites. The Mets have averaged just over four runs per game and boast nearly eight hits each outing—significantly better than Pittsburgh’s offense, which has struggled mightily with only about three runs per game and a batting average lingering around .225. The Mets’ ability to get on base (over 72% slugging) compared to Pittsburgh’s numbers signals trouble for Keller tonight.

Looking back through my coaching years, I’ve often emphasized how critical it is for pitchers to find their rhythm early in games. If Keller can’t locate his pitches or fall behind in counts against aggressive hitters from New York—who have proven they can capitalize on mistakes—we may witness another tough night for him on home soil.

The recent trends also tell us quite a story: while New York has been gaining some momentum winning four out of its last six games ATS (against the spread), Pittsburgh finds itself struggling with only three wins out of their last eleven games overall. This kind of disparity usually leads me to favor teams like New York who seem poised and prepared.

Defensively speaking, both teams have had ups and downs this season; however, what stands out is how effective Peterson has been when he takes control of the game early versus Keller’s propensity to surrender those early runs which could shift momentum quickly in favor of New York.

All indicators point towards expecting more action tonight than usual given both teams’ recent trends—in particular how consistently high-scoring games have been lately with Pittsburgh going OVER in seven of their last nine outings combined with New York’s recent performance spikes at plate activity.

My prediction? Expect the Mets to pull off a victory here against an underperforming Pirates squad while scoring over that total line set at 8.5 runs should push towards being reachable too due mainly to offensive firepower from both sides—a perfect recipe for fireworks at PNC Park tonight!