Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles - June 28, 2025

As a seasoned bettor, I’ve seen my fair share of rivalries, but the upcoming clash between the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards has all the makings of a high-stakes showdown. With both teams looking to assert their dominance in this division rivalry, it’s time for me to break down what we can expect on that diamond.

The Rays are sending Zack Littell to the mound, and while his record sits at 6-7 with a 3.5 ERA, there’s something about his performance lately that suggests he’s starting to find his groove. He’s been striking out around 8.1 batters per game, which indicates he can get hitters off balance and keep them guessing. This season has had its ups and downs for Littell, but I trust this kid’s ability to perform under pressure. The Rays have shown resilience with an impressive 11-4 record against the spread in their last 15 games, and they’re coming off a rough loss after being blown out by the O’s last time out—a classic “bounce-back” situation if I’ve ever seen one.

On the other hand, Zach Eflin is taking the hill for Baltimore. At 6-4 with a higher-than-desired 5.0 ERA, he hasn’t quite been able to establish himself as a reliable starter just yet. His strikeout rate is decent at about 8.2 per game, but those numbers don’t always translate into effectiveness when facing solid lineups like Tampa Bay’s. The Orioles have certainly had their moments—like that stunning win where they laid it on thick against the Rays—but let’s be honest: inconsistency has plagued their season.

Looking at team stats tells an interesting story as well. The Rays are averaging nearly five runs a game with about 8.7 hits—much better than Baltimore’s paltry average of under four runs and subpar batting average of .231 this season. When you dig deeper into their hitting splits—Tampa Bay boasts a slugging percentage over 70% compared to Baltimore’s mere 67%—you begin to see why oddsmakers opened up this matchup favoring the Orioles slightly at -106.

But here’s where things get juicy: I’m predicting this game will go OVER on total runs scored based on both teams’ offensive capabilities when they’re hot—and let’s face it; they might just explode after last week’s offensive uncertainties! Given that Baltimore tends to hit well against left-handed pitchers (and Littell fits that bill), I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw some fireworks tonight.

So what does all this mean? My gut feeling leads me towards backing Tampa Bay to come out swinging hard in this contest after getting humiliated last time around—they thrive on redemption! And given both teams’ recent trends and hitting stats combined with my usual superstitious betting rituals (I won’t be wearing my lucky socks during games involving two birds!), I’m leaning towards placing my bet confidently on the Rays winning while expecting an OVER affair between these rivals!

In short: Expect fireworks tonight; I’ll take Tampa Bay straight up with confidence!