Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners - July 1, 2025

As I prepare for tonight’s matchup between the Kansas City Royals and the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park, I’m excited to delve into the numbers that tell the story of what we can expect. The Mariners enter this game as -130 moneyline favorites, reflecting their recent success against Kansas City, including a decisive 6-2 victory in their last encounter.

Starting on the mound for the Royals is Michael Lorenzen, who carries a 4-8 record with a 3.5 ERA and an impressive strikeout rate of 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. However, despite his solid strikeout numbers, he has struggled to find consistency this season. His ERA indicates that he’s been prone to giving up runs at crucial moments, which could be problematic against a Mariners lineup that has shown they can score.

Opposing him is Emerson Hancock for Seattle. With a win-loss record of 3-4 and an ERA of approximately 4.1, Hancock has had his ups and downs this season as well but has maintained a slightly better performance overall than Lorenzen when looking at run prevention metrics. He also boasts an impressive strikeout rate of 8.2 K/9 innings—indicating both pitchers have the capability to rack up strikeouts while potentially allowing earned runs.

When we look at team stats beyond just pitching, it becomes clear why Seattle holds an edge going into this game. The Mariners average around 4.6 runs per game with nearly 8.5 hits per contest—significantly outpacing Kansas City’s meager averages of just over 3.3 runs and about 8.3 hits per game. This stark contrast in offensive production suggests that if both teams perform according to their averages, Seattle will likely come out on top again.

Furthermore, while both teams have struggled against the spread recently (both are sitting at 2-5 ATS in their last seven games), Seattle’s recent form shows promise: they’ve won six out of their last nine games compared to Kansas City’s disappointing record of just one win in their last nine outings.

From a betting perspective, I predict that Seattle will secure another victory against Kansas City tonight; however, I believe it will be a lower-scoring affair than anticipated given both teams’ recent trends toward unders in total scores—especially considering that seven of Kansas City’s last nine games have gone under.

In summary, my prediction is for the Mariners to defeat the Royals once more—with perhaps something like a final score around 4-2 or similar—and I would lean towards betting on the total going under tonight’s line set at eight runs based on current trends and team performances leading into this matchup.