Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates - August 22, 2025

The Pittsburgh Pirates will beat the Colorado Rockies. The Colorado Rockies will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

I see a slightly better offense confronting a much better staff. Pittsburgh averages 3.5 runs on 7.7 hits with a 0.2 batting average. Colorado posts 3.8 runs and 8.0 hits with a 0.2 average. The real gap is on the mound. Pittsburgh’s 4.1 ERA is steady enough to mute a lineup that relies on volume, while Colorado’s 6.1 ERA turns routine contact into big innings. With that run prevention edge, I expect Pittsburgh to turn similar traffic into more efficient scoring and to control the late innings. That is enough for a narrow result without a surge at the plate.

Colorado’s 6.1 ERA should push Pittsburgh above its baseline to roughly 5.0 to 5.5 runs. Colorado’s contact rate and 3.8-run norm should still produce 4.0 to 5.0 against a 4.1 ERA. That places the combined near 9.5 to 10.5, which clears typical totals. Because Pittsburgh’s own creation sits at 3.5 runs, separation is unlikely. I forecast a one-run game, something like 5.3 to 4.7. That profile supports a Pittsburgh win, a Colorado cover, and an over powered more by shaky pitching than elite hitting.