Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees - August 22, 2025

The New York Yankees will beat the Boston Red Sox. The Boston Red Sox will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

I rate this as a narrow edge for New York driven by run creation. The Yankees are producing 5.2 runs per game, edging Boston at 5.0, which gives me a small offensive advantage despite Boston’s slightly higher contact profile. Boston is averaging 8.7 hits with a 24.7 percent batting average, while New York sits at 8.5 hits and 24.5 percent. That gap in base hits is offset by the Yankees converting opportunities into runs at a higher clip. On the run prevention side, Boston holds a cleaner staff mark at 3.8 ERA versus New York at 4.1, which narrows the margin and supports a close final. Put together, the mix profiles as a one run type outcome, a script where New York’s run ceiling gets them home while Boston stays inside the number.

The total projects over because of baseline volume. These offenses combine for 10.2 runs per game, and both lineups generate steady traffic in the 8.5 to 8.7 hits range. Even if the pitching meets its season averages, that many baserunners increases sequencing chances and pushes scoring into double digits often enough for the over to clear. I project a median near the low tens with reasonable variance on both sides, and the matchup dynamics, a slight New York edge in run conversion versus a sturdier Boston staff, still imply enough exchanges to top the number.