San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers - August 23, 2025

The Milwaukee Brewers will beat the San Francisco Giants. The San Francisco Giants will cover the spread, and the total will go under.

I project Milwaukee by a small margin because they are better on both sides. They average 5.1 runs on 8.8 hits with a 0.3 average, while San Francisco sits at 4.0 runs on 7.7 hits with a 0.2 average. The run prevention gap is modest but real, 3.6 ERA for Milwaukee versus 3.8 for San Francisco. That combination points to a low to moderate scoring environment where the more efficient offense wins more often. The profile suggests consistent pressure from Milwaukee and longer scoreless stretches from San Francisco, enough to tilt the moneyline without inviting a runaway.

On the spread and total, I see a tight window. With an expected margin near 1.0, a typical -1.5 favorite spread becomes vulnerable, which aligns with San Francisco covering in a losing effort. Both staffs sit below 3.9 ERA, and San Francisco’s contact profile caps their ceiling, so I expect their output to dip below the 4.0 baseline. San Francisco’s 3.8 staff is sturdy enough to keep Milwaukee closer to 4 to 5 runs rather than a spike. Netting those pieces together, I land on a narrow Milwaukee win, San Francisco within a run, and the scoring suppressed enough to slide under the number.