Lecce @ Genoa - August 23, 2025

The Genoa will beat the Lecce. The total will go under.

I expect a low event match built on conservative possession and modest chance quality. Genoa averages 1.0 goals from 10.1 shots, with 3.1 on target. Lecce sits at 0.7 goals on 11.8 shots, also 3.1 on target. That symmetry in shot accuracy, paired with below average scoring, points to limited finishing. Summed production projects near 1.7 total goals, which supports the under. Passing rates are nearly identical at 75.9 percent for Genoa and 75.3 percent for Lecce, suggesting neither side will consistently slice through pressure. With both teams generating only 3.1 shots on target, volume alone is unlikely to push this total over.

For the result, the efficiency gap favors Genoa. Their goals per shot rate sits near 9.9 percent compared to Lecce at 5.9 percent. On‑target conversion also leans Genoa at 32.3 percent versus 22.6 percent. That finishing edge, even within a tight game state, is decisive when chances are scarce. Genoa’s slightly cleaner ball retention at 75.9 percent should help tilt territory and set-piece pressure, while the foul profile is essentially a wash at 13.1 for Genoa and 12.3 for Lecce. In a match defined by small margins, I trust the more efficient attack to find the single breakthrough. My projection is a narrow Genoa win, most plausibly 1 to 0, with the total staying under.