Cremonese @ AC Milan - August 23, 2025

The AC Milan will beat the Cremonese. The total will go over.

I project a clear edge for The AC Milan across the core team metrics that decide matches. Their attack generates a higher share of shots and a larger portion of those on target, which pairs with a more stable passing percentage that sustains territory and repeat entries. That profile typically yields a steadier non-penalty goals rate even when variance hits. Cremonese, by contrast, lean on volume under pressure and see a lower on-target rate when forced into rushed attempts. Their passing percentage dips against top-half presses, inviting turnovers in zones that The AC Milan converts efficiently. The foul profile also favors the favorite. Cremonese commit more fouls when chasing the ball, which means additional set pieces and second-phase chances for a side already advantaged in delivery and box occupation.

For the total, the game state dynamics push this over the line. Once The AC Milan score first, they do not downshift. Shot supply rises, and the on-target share holds because possession is secured through cleaner passing. Cremonese can still contribute. They are most dangerous in transition and from set pieces, and The AC Milan’s aggressive shape can concede a handful of counter looks. Add the likelihood of cumulative fouls creating dead-ball opportunities, and the chance of at least one reply grows. With superior chance quality on one side and enough counterpunch on the other, I expect a multi-goal margin and a total that clears the number.