Bologna @ Roma - August 23, 2025

The Roma will beat the Bologna. The total will go over.

I favor Roma because of control and discipline edges. Roma completes 83.3% passes vs 80.6% for Bologna, translating to more sustained sequences and territorial pressure. Roma commits 10.7 fouls vs Bologna 14.2, which limits dangerous restarts conceded while generating set plays the other way. Shot volume is similar, Roma 13.6 attempts with 4.3 on target, Bologna 13.3 with 4.4 on target. The difference will come from who turns control into repeat entries and who stays out of foul trouble. My model gives Roma a narrow but clear edge in possession share and field tilt, enough to turn equal shooting into a higher quality mix and the decisive goal.

On the total, both attacks average 1.5 goals, setting a baseline near 3.0. They combine for 8.7 shots on target, and with typical conversion near 30.0%, the expectation already pushes toward 2.6 to 3.0 goals. Bologna’s higher foul rate adds roughly 3.5 extra dead ball opportunities, where Roma’s delivery tends to lift conversion above average. Add efficient shot on target rates near one in three for both sides and the increased number of set pieces, and I expect chances at both ends. I project a 2-1 type game, with Roma’s control and set plays nudging it over the number.