TSG Hoffenheim @ Bayer Leverkusen - August 23, 2025

The Bayer Leverkusen will beat the TSG Hoffenheim. The total will go over.

I trust the numbers. Bayer Leverkusen average 2.1 goals on 14.4 shots and 5.3 on target, supported by an 83.7 percent passing rate that sustains pressure and field tilt. Their shot accuracy sits at 36.8 percent, and they convert 39.6 percent of shots on target into goals, a profile consistent with multi-goal outputs against most opponents. The 9.7 fouls committed per match suggests control and discipline, limiting cheap set pieces against while keeping the game flowing in their preferred rhythm. By contrast, TSG Hoffenheim trail in creation at 12.7 shots and 4.3 on target with a 77.0 percent passing rate, making it tougher to progress cleanly under sustained pressure.

The over projects cleanly from base rates. Combining these attacks yields an expected output near 3.4 goals. Hoffenheim still bring enough volume to contribute. Their shot accuracy is 33.9 percent and they convert 30.2 percent of shots on target, enough to find a goal when chances come, especially if they lean on transitions. Their 11.6 fouls per match should also gift Bayer Leverkusen additional set piece looks, a high-efficiency supplement for an attack already producing at a top level. With Bayer Leverkusen’s superior chance volume, precision in the final third, and possession platform, I rate them to clear the result and push the tempo to a total that finishes above the market’s typical baseline.