FC Augsburg @ SC Freiburg - August 23, 2025

The SC Freiburg will beat the FC Augsburg. The total will go over.

I expect SC Freiburg to control the matchup through cleaner build up and more efficient chance creation. Their profile shows 12.0 shots with 4.0 on target, supported by a 77.5 percent completion rate, which should sustain territory and second phases. At 1.5 goals per match and roughly 0.4 goals per shot on target, that production translates to about 1.6 expected goals here. FC Augsburg brings 11.5 shots with 3.2 on target, a 76.3 percent completion rate, and 1.0 goals per match. Their on target conversion sits closer to 0.3, which points to about 1.0 expected goals. Freiburg also commits fewer fouls at 9.4 versus 10.3, limiting cheap restarts and tilting the transition balance in their favor.

The total trends over because the shooting volume and accuracy stack up. Combined, these sides average 23.5 shots and 7.2 on target. With the conversion baselines above, that projects to around 2.6 goals. Freiburg’s edge in shot quality is clear, with 33.3 percent of attempts on target compared to 27.8 percent for Augsburg, and a sharper shots per goal rate at 8.0 versus 11.5. In a match where Freiburg’s possession holds and Augsburg still generates enough looks to contribute, the floor for scoring is high. My most likely script is Freiburg winning by a single score, something like 2.0 to 1.0, with chances late pushing the total over.