Valencia @ Osasuna - August 24, 2025

The Osasuna will beat the Valencia. The total will go under.

I see a narrow match tilted toward Osasuna by steady volume and field position. Osasuna average 1.3 goals on 10.8 shots with 3.2 on target, while Valencia sit at 1.2 goals on 10.1 shots with 3.1 on target. Efficiency is nearly identical at 0.4 goals per shot on target for both sides, and shots per goal are effectively even at 8.3 for Osasuna and 8.4 for Valencia. The difference is the extra half chance Osasuna create each match. With a 74.9 percent completion rate, Osasuna play more directly, and that tendency shows up as a slight edge in shots and accuracy. Valencia complete 77.8 percent, but that security in possession has not translated into higher shot output.

The tempo points to the under. Osasuna commit 13.4 fouls to Valencia’s 11.6, a physical profile that disrupts a possession leaning opponent. Against a side that depends on 77.8 percent passing, those interruptions cut clean progressions and should pull Valencia below their 3.1 shots on target baseline. The raw combined averages are 20.9 shots and 6.3 on target, but given the matchup, I trim that to about 19.0 shots and 5.5 on target. At a 0.4 conversion, that projects near 2.2 goals. With Osasuna holding small edges in shots and shots on target, they are more likely to capture the single goal margin, then manage the pace to the finish.