Girona @ Villarreal - August 24, 2025

The Villarreal will beat the Girona. The total will go over.

I project the Villarreal to control territory and tempo. A recent profile of 25 shots with 10 on target, supported by 89.1% passing, signals sustained possession and repeatable chance creation. The Girona at 7 shots and 2 on target with 76.5% passing have struggled to progress the ball through pressure. The Villarreal’s shot-on-target rate sits at 40.0%, a volume-driven edge that forces defensive concessions and second-phase chances. Even with a modest 20.0% conversion on shots on target, the underlying pressure should translate to multiple goals. The Girona’s 50.0% conversion on limited accuracy is unlikely to hold if their chance volume stays low, which tilts the match state toward the Villarreal.

The total trends over because the ingredients point to pace and chances for both sides. The Villarreal’s combination of volume and precision reliably produces 6.0 to 8.0 shots on frame when they approach that shot count, which typically yields scoring. The Girona still bring transition threat, and a 28.6% accuracy rate can be enough to nick a goal if they reach even modest shot totals. Foul counts at 10 for the Villarreal and 8 for the Girona indicate a relatively open game rather than persistent disruption, which supports flowing attacks and late opportunities. With the Villarreal projecting for the higher x-shot profile and the Girona capable of converting a small share, I expect a decisive home edge and a scoreline that clears the number.