Fiorentina @ Cagliari Calcio - August 24, 2025

The Fiorentina will beat the Cagliari Calcio. The total will go under.

I expect a methodical edge for Fiorentina driven by cleaner build up and more reliable chance creation. They average 1.5 goals to Cagliari’s 1.1, and they reach 4.3 shots on target from 11.6 attempts, a 37.1% accuracy. Cagliari sits at 3.0 on target from 11.1 shots, only 27.0%. The passing gap, 80.6% to 76.3%, signals longer settled spells for Fiorentina, more territory, and better field position. Discipline matters too. With 11.6 fouls per match versus 13.2, Fiorentina concede fewer cheap restarts and limit chaotic phases that can flip a game. With the superior shot quality, a small accuracy edge, and more controlled possession, the three points tilt toward the visitors in a low variance script.

For the total, the numbers lean quiet. The combined shot volume is modest at 22.7, and only 7.3 are on frame on an average day. That profile rarely produces a shootout, especially when one side is likely to dictate pace through 80.6% passing and the other struggles to progress cleanly at 76.3%. Cagliari’s heavier foul rate, 13.2, chops up rhythm and pushes this toward a stop and start contest. I project a controlled lead and protect approach once Fiorentina are in front, squeezing risk rather than trading chances. A 1 to 0 or 2 to 0 outcome fits the data, with Fiorentina’s efficiency separating them while the tempo holds the total under.