Rayo Vallecano @ Athletic Bilbao - August 25, 2025

The Athletic Bilbao will beat the Rayo Vallecano. The total will go over.

I make Athletic the side with the cleaner edge in efficiency. They average 1.4 goals on 12.2 shots, converting 11.7% of attempts and 36.5% of shots on target. Rayo produce more volume at 13.6 shots and 4.3 on target, but turn chances into goals at only 8.0% overall and 25.3% on target. That finishing gap is meaningful when the passing profiles are similar. Athletic complete 78.0% to Rayo’s 77.0%, which should tilt stable possession toward the hosts while avoiding the kind of helter skelter that helps an underdog. Athletic also commit fewer fouls, 12.7 to 13.7, reducing cheap set piece exposure. With better chance quality and cleaner progression, I expect Athletic to convert their pressure into a one goal margin.

The total trends up on volume and restarts. These teams combine for 25.8 shots and 8.2 on target, and at their observed finishing rates that profiles around 2.5 goals before game state and set pieces. The whistle rate is high at a combined 26.4 fouls, adding dead balls that boost chance value. Rayo’s shot volume sustains exchanges, Athletic’s precision punishes. I project a median of 2.7 with enough tail risk from set pieces and late-game chasing to clear the typical number more often than not.