2022 FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Odds and Predictions

Fifa World Cup Qatar 2022 Golden Boot

We are closing in on the kick off of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, so let’s continue our look at odds for the individual honors, the Golden Ball, the Golden Boot, and the Golden Glove with the numbers, history and picks for the 2022 Golden Boot winner and predictions.

Golden Boot Betting odds can be found at leading FIFA World Cup sportsbooks, like Bovada, where you can also find all of the Group, individual game and soccer props for this highly anticipated tournament.

The biggest thing to think about if playing this Futures market is that you need a guy who is healthy, will start every match, is the team’s perceived leading scorer, and plays on a team which might not split a lot of goals like defending champions France or Brazil.

The winner is more often than not a Striker-Forward like England’s Kane. However, a creative Midfielder that can also score goals as well as create them like Lionel Messi (Argentina) can win this Golden Boot award as AMF Thomas Müller proved for Germany in the 2006 World Cup in South Africa.

What is the Golden Boot Award?

The Golden Boot (or Golden Shoe) is an award given to the player who scored the most goals in the FIFA World Cup Final. Unlike the Golden Ball award which sees a panel of media members decide the winner, this baby is all based on putting the ball in the net.

If there is a tie among the leading goal scorers in a World Cup, then the first tiebreaker is to see who had the most goals scored minus any Penalty Kick goals. If two (or more) players are still tied, the second tiebreaker is to give it to the player with the most Assists.

The Golden Boot is one of three performance-based World Cup awards handed out after the FIFA World Cup tourney wraps up, with the Golden Ball (Outfield players) and the Golden Glove (Goalkeepers) also being awarded to players in the beautiful game every four years.

Still, this can be a hard market to bet into, and one key is to be fairly confident that you are backing a player of a team with decent odds to make it out of the Group Stage and on to the Knockout Stage.

Harry Kane of England checks all the right boxes again, and the Tottenham Hotspur star won this award last time out in Russia, scoring 6 times for the Three Lions.

The award for the leading scorer in the World Cup has changed names through the years. And was originally called the Golden Shoe when first awarded in 1982. It is sponsored by Adidas. The Golden Boot has been awarded just 3 times under this current name.

FIFA Men’s World Cup Golden Boot, Golden Shoe Winners

  • 2018 Russia: Harry Kane, England (6 goals)
  • 2014 Brazil: James Rodríguez, Colombia (6 goals)
  • 2010 South Africa: Thomas Müller, Germany (5 goals)
  • 2006 Germany: Miroslav Klose, Germany (5 goals)
  • 2002 South Korea/Japan: Ronaldo, Brazil (8 goals)
  • 1998 France: Davor Šuker, Croatia (6 goals)
  • 1994 USA: Oleg Salenko (Russia), Hristo Stoichov (Bulgaria) (6 goals)
  • 1990 Italy: Salvatore Schillaci, Italy (6 goals)
  • 1986 México: Gary Lineker, England (6 goals)
  • 1992 Spain: Paolo Rossi, Italy (6 goals)

2022 FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner Betting Odds

  • Harry Kane, England +900
  • Kylian Mbappé, France +900
  • Lionel Messi, Argentina +1200
  • Neymar, Brazil +1200
  • Karim Benzema, France +1400
  • Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal +1600
  • Romelu Lukaku, Belgium +2000
  • Lautaro Martínez, Argentina +2000
  • Richarlison, Brazil +2000
  • Álvaro Morata, Spain +2200

Harry Kane, England 9/1

Harry Kane won the Golden Boot in the last World Cup with 6 goals and is the legitimate favorite here but Three Lions teammates Phil Foden (Manchester City) and Raheem Sterling (Chelsea) may get their fair share of goals with England playing in Group A with Wales, the USA, and Iran.

Kane has won the Golden Boot in the EPL in 2015-16, 2016-17, and last season in 2021-22, and the veteran Englishman has scored 195 goals in 297 EPL fixtures. A problem may arise if Kane and England don’t play enough games due to an earlier than wanted elimination. Kane should get 4.

Lionel Messi, Argentina 12/1

Lionel Messi (PSG) will be participating in his final FIFA World Cup, and Soccer icon— who has been rumored to be heading to Inter Miami CF in the MLS—can certainly score 4-6 goals in Qatar if everything goes just right for La Albiceleste and the magical Midfielder.

But easier said than done.

Messi has already won the Golden Ball (2014), so if Argentina (+550 to win the 2022 FIFA World Cup, BetOnline) can make a decent run and possibly get to the Final on December 18, maybe he can finally lift the World Cup trophy, and in the process, win the Golden Boot award in 2022?

Neymar, Brazil 10/1

Neymar Junior (PSG), Messi’s teammate in Ligue 1, was on the shortlist to win the Golden Ball at the 2014 FIFA World Cup and he was the second-leading scorer four years ago. Neymar will likely break Pelé’s scoring record for A Seleção, but will his teammates also get their share?

Brazil (+350) is the favorites and Neymar is its sparkplug, but this Roster is loaded and other players should also be scoring. The winner in this Golden Boot marketplace should end up having 5 to 7 goals in Qatar.

Karim Benzema, France 14/1

If everything goes right for him, Karim Benzema (Real Madrid) may be able to win both this Golden Boot and the Golden Ball in this 2022 FIFA World Cup. Toss in the Golden Ball for the Madridistas in European play this year and a UCL title, and he may be the most valuable player in this sport.

And should Benzema lead France to its second straight World Cup, be the leading scorer in the World Cup and have both Golden Boots at the same time, then we need to start thinking about him on the list of all-time greats. But teammate Kylian Mbappé should get his goals as well here.

Pelé, Diego Maradona, Ronaldo, Thomas Müller, Manuel Neuer, Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema. He fits in very well, right? But will the humble and reserved Benzema ever really get the credit he deserves? Expect him to have a huge World Cup and maybe win the Golden Boot.

Lautaro Martínez, Argentina 20/1

Lautaro Martínez (Inter Milan) is my co-favorite to win this award although it seems both he and Benzema (France) could get 5 or 6 in Qatar. With Messi feeding him, Martínez may have a breakout World Cup and snatch the Golden Boot and longshot 20/1 odds.

Argentina will have to play enough games for Martínez to get his, but it seems he will score more goals than Messi will. He may end up with 5 to 7 goals in the World Cup depending on how well he performs in those first three Group Stage (Group C) games (México, Poland, Saudi Arabia).

2022 FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Predictions

Unlike the Golden Ball award where it’s imperative the award winner makes it to the FIFA World Cup Final, the Golden Boot simply rewards the top goal scorer in the tournament. The key to this Futures bet is to try to pick a player who is the leading scorer for his team and may play the most games.

In the Golden Ball market, three French players—Karim Benzema, Kylian Mbappé, and Antoine Griezmann—may end up cannibalizing each other in terms of goals for Les Blues in this tournament. And Argentina may have the same issue with so much firepower on the attack.

But some teams try to win the World Cup playing lockdown Defense and subsequently are involved in lower-scoring games. The Golden Boot will go to a player on a higher-scoring team, so check out the Totals and notice who the oddsmakers think will be in high-scoring affairs.

2022 FIFA World Cup Qatar Golden Boot Predictions Winner Picks:
Karim Benzema, France

Argentina and Brazil will be teams expected to score 2 or 3 goals a game and will have higher Totals. Therefore, a player from Argentina, Brazil, or defending champions France should have a chance at the most quality Shots on Goal throughout the tournament.

Benzema for France (age 34), Martínez for Argentina, and Neymar for Brazil all check those boxes and all should have at least 4 goals in this World Cup. But who will be the guy that has the 2- or maybe 3-goal game and be on a team that plays on in the Knockout Stage?

Benzema has 37 scored goals in 97 games for France and with the Ballon d’Or and a UCL title in one pocket, expect him to shine on in the recent Real Madrid tradition of seeing players win the Golden Ball (Luka Modrić), Silver Ball (Eden Hazard), and the Golden Glove (Thibaut Courtois).

2022 FIFA World Cup Qatar Golden Boot Predictions Winner Picks:
Lautaro Martínez, Argentina
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Rick Rockwell
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Rick has been a professional writer for over 14 years with an extensive resume spanning projects and clients from around the world. But, his passions have always been sports and sports betting. Whether it’s being a credentialed media member to major sporting events, climbing into a racecar or a pro wrestling ring, Rick’s sports and sports betting knowledge, passion and versatility is on display with each article he writes for TSG.

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